623 S Chestnut St · Jefferson, IA 50129

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Other public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1900 $69/sqft · 29% below area Est $175k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Isn’t she adorable?! If you’ve been looking for a home with space, character, and serious potential—this is it. Step inside to a large, inviting living room, a main-floor primary bedroom, and a spacious eat-in kitchen that’s ready for your vision. The main level also includes a full bathroom for added convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find three additional bedrooms and a second bath, including one oversized bedroom with closets on both sides—perfect for storage or a future suite feel. Outside is where this property really stands out—nearly half an acre, a 2-car attached garage, PLUS an additional detached garage… ideal for extra vehicles, hobbies, or workshop space. Located just minutes from downtown, this home offers a prime location with room to build equity fast. Great bones. Great lot. Great opportunity. Bring your ideas and make it your own.

Key facts

• Oversized bedroom
• Full bathroom
• Nearly half an acre

Tags

• LARGE INVITING LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS EAT IN KITCHEN
• MAIN FLOOR PRIMARY BEDROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• OVERSIZED BEDROOM
• NEARLY HALF AN ACRE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($883/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Jefferson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#115 in IA, #2,186 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Greene County Community School District (town): math 58% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #223 of 289 in IA (top 77%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $125k implies a 102% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.52%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,437
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -28.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-15,535
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,347
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50129

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,224 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,228/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,131

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-04-11
   listed $140,000 Active 906-char remark

   Show marketing remark (906 chars)

   Isn’t she adorable?! If you’ve been looking for a home with space, character, and serious potential—this is it. Step inside to a large, inviting living room, a main-floor primary bedroom, and a spacious eat-in kitchen that’s ready for your vision. The main level also includes a full bathroom for added convenience. Upstairs, you’ll find three additional bedrooms and a second bath, including one oversized bedroom with closets on both sides—perfect for storage or a future suite feel. Outside is where this property really stands out—nearly half an acre, a 2-car attached garage, PLUS an additional detached garage… ideal for extra vehicles, hobbies, or workshop space. Located just minutes from downtown, this home offers a prime location with room to build equity fast. Great bones. Great lot. Great opportunity. Bring your ideas and make it your own.

7. 2007-04-26
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,228 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,686
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,228
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,175
• − Management: −$1,175
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$277
• After-tax cash flow: $1,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greene County Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1915210
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,051
• Composite: 52.74/100
• National rank: #1548
• State rank: #223 of 289 in IA

Livability — Jefferson

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #2186

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jefferson, IA
• City population: 5,116
• Population (ZIP): 5,116

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,361 people
• By 2030: 8,090 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 7,607 · -9.0%
• By 2050: 7,186 · -14.1%
• By 2075: 6,528 · -21.9%
• By 2100: 5,799 · -30.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.0) · D 32.9% · R 65.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.5pp · 2024: -33.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.0 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+23.8 2012: R+0.1 2008: D+0.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.16%
• Current HPI: 240.0907
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+125.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $140,000 DMMLS
• 2007-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,228 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.