4406 Newcastle Ln NW · Rochester, MN 55901

$390,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1990 10,105 sqft lot $131/sqft · 19% below area Est $486k · 20% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom home located in the desirable North Park subdivision. The spacious main level offers multiple living areas, including two family rooms, a formal dining room, and a bright breakfast nook-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The finished lower level provides additional living space with a large family room and game room, featuring newlyl replaced carpet & fresh paint. A cozy brick, wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and charm and decorative ceiling fans are featured throughout the home. While the home offers a solid layout and generous living space, it presents an opportunity for updates and personalization. Additional highlights include a heated, finished two-car garage and a deck. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to North Park, this home offers space, comfort, and convenience.

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Corner lot
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• MULTIPLE LIVING AREAS
• CLASSIC BRICK FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• BRIGHT BREAKFAST AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with storage; 2-car garage (22 x 20)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas; Electric service with circuit breakers and 150 amp service
• Home design: Residential property; Two levels; Primary bedroom suite; 3 bedrooms on one level
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Stone exterior accents; Deck and front porch; Full chain link fencing; Corner lot; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances; Kitchen includes a breakfast area and kitchen/dining layout
• Bedrooms: Five bedrooms total; Primary bedroom is private with an ensuite and a 3/4 bath; Three bedrooms located on the upper level; Additional bedrooms and a den located on the lower level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One three-quarter bathroom; One half bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; French doors; Kitchen window; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet; Walk-in closet; Finished basement with storage space; Wood-burning fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Gas water heater; Water softener (owned); Utility room in lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $312k (19.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gibbs Elementary (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #247 of 857 statewide, top 29%, 730 students, 36% FRL); John Adams Middle (math 20% / reading 42%, grade F, #191 of 258 statewide, top 74%, 731 students, 42% FRL); John Marshall Senior High (math 37% / reading 58%, grade D, #162 of 471 statewide, top 35%, 1,573 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $274,172 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.82%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $486,457
• List price: $390,000
• Delta: -19.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6198 Branch Ln NW	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,600 (-13%)	1mo	$490,000	$188	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-93,399
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-126,426
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55901

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,742 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$397 /mo · $4,764/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,297

Max offer price $312,494

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-218	-5% $-328	+0% $-439	+5% $-549	+10% $-660
Rent	-10% $-655	-5% $-547	+0% $-439	+5% $-330	+10% $-222
Rate	-1.0pp $-242	-0.5pp $-340	base $-439	+0.5pp $-540	+1.0pp $-643

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6251 Fairway Dr NW Rochester, MN	4.0	2.0	2212	$2,525	$1.14	45d	1	0.22mi
6143 39th Ave NW Rochester, MN	5.0	2.0	2584	$3,500	$1.35	15d	1	0.47mi
6635 Lodge View DR NW Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1317	$2,889	$2.19	15d	37	1.41mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-07
   price $390,000
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $395,000 Active
3. 2026-04-23
   historical
4. 2026-04-17
   price $395,000
5. 2026-04-02
   price $400,000
6. 2026-03-26
   price $410,000
7. 2026-03-14
   listed $415,000 Active
8. 2026-03-13
   historical
9. 2026-02-02
   soldstatus $317,000
10. 2026-01-23
    soldstatus $317,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom home located in the desirable North Park subdivision. The spacious main level offers multiple living areas, including two family rooms, a formal dining room, and a bright breakfast nook-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The finished lower level provides additional living space with a large family room and game room, featuring newlyl replaced carpet & fresh paint. A cozy brick, wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and charm and decorative ceiling fans are featured throughout the home. While the home offers a solid layout and generous living space, it presents an opportunity for updates and personalization. Additional highlights include a heated, finished two-car garage and a deck. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to North Park, this home offers space, comfort, and convenience.

11. 2026-01-09
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom home located in the desirable North Park subdivision. The spacious main level offers multiple living areas, including two family rooms, a formal dining room, and a bright breakfast nook-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The finished lower level provides additional living space with a large family room and game room, featuring newlyl replaced carpet & fresh paint. A cozy brick, wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and charm and decorative ceiling fans are featured throughout the home. While the home offers a solid layout and generous living space, it presents an opportunity for updates and personalization. Additional highlights include a heated, finished two-car garage and a deck. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to North Park, this home offers space, comfort, and convenience.

12. 2026-01-08
    historical Contingent - Inspection

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom home located in the desirable North Park subdivision. The spacious main level offers multiple living areas, including two family rooms, a formal dining room, and a bright breakfast nook-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The finished lower level provides additional living space with a large family room and game room, featuring newlyl replaced carpet & fresh paint. A cozy brick, wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and charm and decorative ceiling fans are featured throughout the home. While the home offers a solid layout and generous living space, it presents an opportunity for updates and personalization. Additional highlights include a heated, finished two-car garage and a deck. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to North Park, this home offers space, comfort, and convenience.

13. 2025-12-29
    status Active

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom home located in the desirable North Park subdivision. The spacious main level offers multiple living areas, including two family rooms, a formal dining room, and a bright breakfast nook-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The finished lower level provides additional living space with a large family room and game room, featuring newlyl replaced carpet & fresh paint. A cozy brick, wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and charm and decorative ceiling fans are featured throughout the home. While the home offers a solid layout and generous living space, it presents an opportunity for updates and personalization. Additional highlights include a heated, finished two-car garage and a deck. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to North Park, this home offers space, comfort, and convenience.

14. 2025-12-29
    historical

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom home located in the desirable North Park subdivision. The spacious main level offers multiple living areas, including two family rooms, a formal dining room, and a bright breakfast nook-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The finished lower level provides additional living space with a large family room and game room, featuring newlyl replaced carpet & fresh paint. A cozy brick, wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and charm and decorative ceiling fans are featured throughout the home. While the home offers a solid layout and generous living space, it presents an opportunity for updates and personalization. Additional highlights include a heated, finished two-car garage and a deck. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to North Park, this home offers space, comfort, and convenience.

15. 2025-08-19
    listed $360,000

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Welcome to this spacious 5-bedroom home located in the desirable North Park subdivision. The spacious main level offers multiple living areas, including two family rooms, a formal dining room, and a bright breakfast nook-ideal for both everyday living & entertaining. The finished lower level provides additional living space with a large family room and game room, featuring newlyl replaced carpet & fresh paint. A cozy brick, wood-burning fireplace adds warmth and charm and decorative ceiling fans are featured throughout the home. While the home offers a solid layout and generous living space, it presents an opportunity for updates and personalization. Additional highlights include a heated, finished two-car garage and a deck. Located in a quiet, established neighborhood close to North Park, this home offers space, comfort, and convenience.

16. 2019-02-02
    historical
17. 2018-12-09
    historical
18. 2013-11-29
    soldstatus $219,000
19. 2013-11-29
    soldstatus $219,000
20. 2013-09-30
    listed $219,900
21. 2013-09-30
    listed $219,900
22. 2012-07-12
    listed $199,000
23. 2012-07-12
    listed $199,000
24. 2001-12-14
    soldstatus $212,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,764 · $397/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,764 · $397/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$4,764
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,632
• − Management: −$2,632
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$12,269
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,945
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,320/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 58,495
• Household income: $94,607
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1651.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Asian 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.08%
• Current HPI: 253.7999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+85.1% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) $392,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $390,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $395,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $395,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $400,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $410,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-14 Listed $415,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Coming Soon — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-02 Sold (Public Records) $317,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-23 Sold (MLS) $317,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-19 Listed $360,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-02-02 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-09 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-29 Sold (MLS) $219,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-29 Sold (MLS) $219,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-30 Listed $219,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-30 Listed $219,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-12 Listed $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-12 Listed $199,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,764 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.