1212 Reed Ln · La Junta, CO 81050

$49,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2011 1,152 sqft lot Est $45k · 9% over $450/mo HOA · 44% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• ARV discount +3.4/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable 3-bedroom, 2-bath fenced in home with 1,152 sq ft, featuring a brand new water heater, an updated furnace with new parts, and a functional open floorplan that makes everyday living easy. Move-in ready with washer and dryer included, plus multiple cooling options including window A/C units and a swamp cooler, with a roof in good condition. Built in 2011, this single-wide offers laminate flooring, ceiling fans, and a layout designed for practical comfort. Located in a professionally managed community with lot rent of $450/month and off-street parking for two vehicles. Park approval is required for all buyers. Financing options available upon request. Video Footage: https://youtu. b

Key facts

• Open floorplan
• New water heater
• Updated furnace

Tags

• NEW WATER HEATER
• UPDATED FURNACE
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED
• MULTIPLE COOLING OPTIONS
• ROOF IN GOOD CONDITION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Meadows Mobile Home Park; Professionally managed association; Monthly park/association fee $450 (land lease fee); Land lease month-to-month through 12/31/2026

Exterior

• Parking: 2 off-street parking spaces (total 2)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single-story (all main level rooms)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Skirted with vinyl; Manufacture make: LEGA; Length 72 ft, width 16 ft
• Exterior features: Full fencing; Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($827/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.1% in La Junta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#126 in CO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• East Otero School District No. R1 (town): math 7% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #83 of 86 in CO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: La Junta Primary School (291 students, 72% FRL); La Junta Jr/Sr High School (math 12% / reading 32%, grade F, #307 of 381 statewide, top 82%, 539 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $342 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 44% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,530 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.97%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $45,360
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1414 Sunrise Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,140 (+6%)	4mo	$21,500	$19	85
1213 Reed Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	13mo	$49,000	$43	77
1405 W Sunset Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-11%)	8mo	$40,000	$42	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-3,370
• Equity at exit: $7,381

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $3,777
• Equity at exit: $4,280

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 81050

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $129/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $938

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $450 · $5,400/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,500 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,500 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,500 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,500 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,500 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,500 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,500 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,500 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,500 Active 63 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,500 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,500 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,500 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 57 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,500 Active 56 DOM
17. 2026-04-04
    listed $49,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $129 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $272 · $23/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 110.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$129
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$984
• − Management: −$984
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$83
• After-tax cash flow: $745/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Otero School District No. R1
• NCES district ID: 0805130
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,475
• Composite: 13.36/100
• National rank: #9534
• State rank: #83 of 86 in CO

Livability — La Junta

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #10703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Junta, CO
• Population (ZIP): 9,774

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,363 people
• By 2030: 16,776 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 15,534 · -10.5%
• By 2050: 14,467 · -16.7%
• By 2075: 12,054 · -30.6%
• By 2100: 9,392 · -45.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 40% Two or more races 10% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.5% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+22.5 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.44%
• Current HPI: 232.984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $49,500 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2021): $129 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.