20887 Mckinley Way · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$280,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,168 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 365 Days on market

Built 1978 0.54 ac lot $240/sqft · at area comps Est $419k · 33% under $306/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Secluded Mountain Retreat tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This is IT! This versatile family cabin or income property is offered furnished and ready when you are! Ready to enjoy THIS summer. Charming tri-level cabin offers a rare blend of tranquility, breathtaking mountain views, and the soothing sounds of a seasonal creek that roars to life in the winter and spring. Lovingly maintained by its original owners and never used as a vacation rental, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home radiates warmth and peacefulness. The layout provides plenty of room to relax and entertain. The lower level offers a generous recreational room, perfect for game nights, movie marathons, or an additional sleep space for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is a true retreat, occupying the third floor with a seating area in the loft—ideal for a cozy reading nook or quiet relaxation while enjoying the elevated mountain views out the large windows. Wake up to stunning treetop views as you sip coffee on the deck, where golden light spills over the mountains and fills the home with warmth. Spend afternoons lounging at one of the beaches, or take advantage of the community’s championship golf course, tennis courts, equestrian center, and country club, all minutes away.

Key facts

• Treetop views
• Seasonal creek
• Recreational room

Tags

• MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SEASONAL CREEK
• RECREATIONAL ROOM
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• TREETOP VIEWS
• COMMUNITY GOLF COURSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-384 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (24.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $212k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 365 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,135 (24.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 365 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.86%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,093
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -33.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-69,715
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-91,707
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,153 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,529/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$306
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-384

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,639

Max offer price $212,135

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-226	-5% $-305	+0% $-384	+5% $-463	+10% $-543
Rent	-10% $-554	-5% $-469	+0% $-384	+5% $-299	+10% $-214
Rate	-1.0pp $-243	-0.5pp $-313	base $-384	+0.5pp $-457	+1.0pp $-531

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $306 · $3,672/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Secluded Mountain Retreat tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This is IT! This versatile family cabin or income property is offered furnished and ready when you are! Ready to enjoy THIS summer. Charming tri-level cabin offers a rare blend of tranquility, breathtaking mountain views, and the soothing sounds of a seasonal creek that roars to life in the winter and spring. Lovingly maintained by its original owners and never used as a vacation rental, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home radiates warmth and peacefulness. The layout provides plenty of room to relax and entertain. The lower level offers a generous recreational room, perfect for game nights, movie marathons, or an additional sleep space for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is a true retreat, occupying the third floor with a seating area in the loft—ideal for a cozy reading nook or quiet relaxation while enjoying the elevated mountain views out the large windows. Wake up to stunning treetop views as you sip coffee on the deck, where golden light spills over the mountains and fills the home with warmth. Spend afternoons lounging at one of the beaches, or take advantage of the community’s championship golf course, tennis courts, equestrian center, and country club, all minutes away.

2. 2026-04-04
   price $280,000 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Secluded Mountain Retreat tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This is IT! This versatile family cabin or income property is offered furnished and ready when you are! Ready to enjoy THIS summer. Charming tri-level cabin offers a rare blend of tranquility, breathtaking mountain views, and the soothing sounds of a seasonal creek that roars to life in the winter and spring. Lovingly maintained by its original owners and never used as a vacation rental, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home radiates warmth and peacefulness. The layout provides plenty of room to relax and entertain. The lower level offers a generous recreational room, perfect for game nights, movie marathons, or an additional sleep space for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is a true retreat, occupying the third floor with a seating area in the loft—ideal for a cozy reading nook or quiet relaxation while enjoying the elevated mountain views out the large windows. Wake up to stunning treetop views as you sip coffee on the deck, where golden light spills over the mountains and fills the home with warmth. Spend afternoons lounging at one of the beaches, or take advantage of the community’s championship golf course, tennis courts, equestrian center, and country club, all minutes away.

3. 2026-03-09
   status Active 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Secluded Mountain Retreat tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This is IT! This versatile family cabin or income property is offered furnished and ready when you are! Ready to enjoy THIS summer. Charming tri-level cabin offers a rare blend of tranquility, breathtaking mountain views, and the soothing sounds of a seasonal creek that roars to life in the winter and spring. Lovingly maintained by its original owners and never used as a vacation rental, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home radiates warmth and peacefulness. The layout provides plenty of room to relax and entertain. The lower level offers a generous recreational room, perfect for game nights, movie marathons, or an additional sleep space for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is a true retreat, occupying the third floor with a seating area in the loft—ideal for a cozy reading nook or quiet relaxation while enjoying the elevated mountain views out the large windows. Wake up to stunning treetop views as you sip coffee on the deck, where golden light spills over the mountains and fills the home with warmth. Spend afternoons lounging at one of the beaches, or take advantage of the community’s championship golf course, tennis courts, equestrian center, and country club, all minutes away.

4. 2026-01-30
   historical 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Secluded Mountain Retreat tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This is IT! This versatile family cabin or income property is offered furnished and ready when you are! Ready to enjoy THIS summer. Charming tri-level cabin offers a rare blend of tranquility, breathtaking mountain views, and the soothing sounds of a seasonal creek that roars to life in the winter and spring. Lovingly maintained by its original owners and never used as a vacation rental, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home radiates warmth and peacefulness. The layout provides plenty of room to relax and entertain. The lower level offers a generous recreational room, perfect for game nights, movie marathons, or an additional sleep space for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is a true retreat, occupying the third floor with a seating area in the loft—ideal for a cozy reading nook or quiet relaxation while enjoying the elevated mountain views out the large windows. Wake up to stunning treetop views as you sip coffee on the deck, where golden light spills over the mountains and fills the home with warmth. Spend afternoons lounging at one of the beaches, or take advantage of the community’s championship golf course, tennis courts, equestrian center, and country club, all minutes away.

5. 2025-10-02
   price $315,000 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Secluded Mountain Retreat tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This is IT! This versatile family cabin or income property is offered furnished and ready when you are! Ready to enjoy THIS summer. Charming tri-level cabin offers a rare blend of tranquility, breathtaking mountain views, and the soothing sounds of a seasonal creek that roars to life in the winter and spring. Lovingly maintained by its original owners and never used as a vacation rental, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home radiates warmth and peacefulness. The layout provides plenty of room to relax and entertain. The lower level offers a generous recreational room, perfect for game nights, movie marathons, or an additional sleep space for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is a true retreat, occupying the third floor with a seating area in the loft—ideal for a cozy reading nook or quiet relaxation while enjoying the elevated mountain views out the large windows. Wake up to stunning treetop views as you sip coffee on the deck, where golden light spills over the mountains and fills the home with warmth. Spend afternoons lounging at one of the beaches, or take advantage of the community’s championship golf course, tennis courts, equestrian center, and country club, all minutes away.

6. 2025-08-14
   price $325,000 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Secluded Mountain Retreat tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This is IT! This versatile family cabin or income property is offered furnished and ready when you are! Ready to enjoy THIS summer. Charming tri-level cabin offers a rare blend of tranquility, breathtaking mountain views, and the soothing sounds of a seasonal creek that roars to life in the winter and spring. Lovingly maintained by its original owners and never used as a vacation rental, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home radiates warmth and peacefulness. The layout provides plenty of room to relax and entertain. The lower level offers a generous recreational room, perfect for game nights, movie marathons, or an additional sleep space for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is a true retreat, occupying the third floor with a seating area in the loft—ideal for a cozy reading nook or quiet relaxation while enjoying the elevated mountain views out the large windows. Wake up to stunning treetop views as you sip coffee on the deck, where golden light spills over the mountains and fills the home with warmth. Spend afternoons lounging at one of the beaches, or take advantage of the community’s championship golf course, tennis courts, equestrian center, and country club, all minutes away.

7. 2025-04-03
   listed $349,000 Active 1278-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

   Secluded Mountain Retreat tucked away at the end of a quiet cul-de-sac. This is IT! This versatile family cabin or income property is offered furnished and ready when you are! Ready to enjoy THIS summer. Charming tri-level cabin offers a rare blend of tranquility, breathtaking mountain views, and the soothing sounds of a seasonal creek that roars to life in the winter and spring. Lovingly maintained by its original owners and never used as a vacation rental, this 4-bedroom, 3-bath home radiates warmth and peacefulness. The layout provides plenty of room to relax and entertain. The lower level offers a generous recreational room, perfect for game nights, movie marathons, or an additional sleep space for guests. Upstairs, the primary bedroom is a true retreat, occupying the third floor with a seating area in the loft—ideal for a cozy reading nook or quiet relaxation while enjoying the elevated mountain views out the large windows. Wake up to stunning treetop views as you sip coffee on the deck, where golden light spills over the mountains and fills the home with warmth. Spend afternoons lounging at one of the beaches, or take advantage of the community’s championship golf course, tennis courts, equestrian center, and country club, all minutes away.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,529 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,128 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$599/yr (+$50/mo · 39.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$1,529
• − Insurance: −$2,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,067
• − Management: −$2,067
• − HOA: −$3,672
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$9,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,287
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $280,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-09 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $315,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $325,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-04-03 Listed $349,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,529 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.