10600 W Mars Rd · Picture Rocks, AZ 85743

$164,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1983 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This ones move in ready! New wood laminate floors throughout the home. Spacious bedrooms, and open living room, make this home great for company. Over an acre of possibilities with plenty of room to roam. Animals, livestock, shops, out buildings, garages, pretty much anything is possible on this property. Or just leave it the way it is and enjoy beautiful Tucson Mountain views from your front porch. Located just off of paved road, yet far enough from most traffic noise. Give this a look.

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $360 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.6% in Picture Rocks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#261 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roadrunner Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 374 students, 73% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 236 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-8,183
• Equity at exit: $24,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $5,266
• Equity at exit: $14,265

Cash invested: $46,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85743

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 236
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,089/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,297

Max offer price $164,990

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $407	+0% $360	+5% $314	+10% $267
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $291	+0% $360	+5% $430	+10% $499
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $402	base $360	+0.5pp $318	+1.0pp $274

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,248
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2025-12-30
   status Pending
2. 2021-05-04
   soldstatus $175,000
3. 2021-03-25
   listed $164,990 Active
4. 2017-04-19
   soldstatus $98,000 Closed 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This ones move in ready! New wood laminate floors throughout the home. Spacious bedrooms, and open living room, make this home great for company. Over an acre of possibilities with plenty of room to roam. Animals, livestock, shops, out buildings, garages, pretty much anything is possible on this property. Or just leave it the way it is and enjoy beautiful Tucson Mountain views from your front porch. Located just off of paved road, yet far enough from most traffic noise. Give this a look.

5. 2017-04-19
   soldstatus $98,000

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This ones move in ready! New wood laminate floors throughout the home. Spacious bedrooms, and open living room, make this home great for company. Over an acre of possibilities with plenty of room to roam. Animals, livestock, shops, out buildings, garages, pretty much anything is possible on this property. Or just leave it the way it is and enjoy beautiful Tucson Mountain views from your front porch. Located just off of paved road, yet far enough from most traffic noise. Give this a look.

6. 2017-04-12
   status Pending 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This ones move in ready! New wood laminate floors throughout the home. Spacious bedrooms, and open living room, make this home great for company. Over an acre of possibilities with plenty of room to roam. Animals, livestock, shops, out buildings, garages, pretty much anything is possible on this property. Or just leave it the way it is and enjoy beautiful Tucson Mountain views from your front porch. Located just off of paved road, yet far enough from most traffic noise. Give this a look.

7. 2017-03-15
   historical Active Contingent 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This ones move in ready! New wood laminate floors throughout the home. Spacious bedrooms, and open living room, make this home great for company. Over an acre of possibilities with plenty of room to roam. Animals, livestock, shops, out buildings, garages, pretty much anything is possible on this property. Or just leave it the way it is and enjoy beautiful Tucson Mountain views from your front porch. Located just off of paved road, yet far enough from most traffic noise. Give this a look.

8. 2016-12-19
   price $105,000 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This ones move in ready! New wood laminate floors throughout the home. Spacious bedrooms, and open living room, make this home great for company. Over an acre of possibilities with plenty of room to roam. Animals, livestock, shops, out buildings, garages, pretty much anything is possible on this property. Or just leave it the way it is and enjoy beautiful Tucson Mountain views from your front porch. Located just off of paved road, yet far enough from most traffic noise. Give this a look.

9. 2016-10-12
   listed $110,000 Active 492-char remark

   Show marketing remark (492 chars)

   This ones move in ready! New wood laminate floors throughout the home. Spacious bedrooms, and open living room, make this home great for company. Over an acre of possibilities with plenty of room to roam. Animals, livestock, shops, out buildings, garages, pretty much anything is possible on this property. Or just leave it the way it is and enjoy beautiful Tucson Mountain views from your front porch. Located just off of paved road, yet far enough from most traffic noise. Give this a look.

10. 2006-09-01
    soldstatus $104,000
11. 1998-04-16
    soldstatus $57,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,089 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,242
• − Property taxes: −$1,089
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,683
• − Management: −$1,683
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$412
• After-tax cash flow: $3,912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Picture Rocks

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #23370

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Picture Rocks, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 31,300
• Household income: $90,093
• Rent vs Own: 13.7% rent · 86.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.76%
• Current HPI: 271.2845
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+207.0% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2021-05-04 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-25 Listed $164,990 MLSSAZ
• 2017-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-19 Sold (MLS) $98,000 MLSSAZ
• 2017-04-12 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2017-03-15 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2016-12-19 Price Changed $105,000 MLSSAZ
• 2016-10-12 Listed $110,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 1998-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,089 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.