105 Pheasant Ln · Gold Key Lake, PA 18458

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 435 sqft · Manufactured · 24 Days on market

Built 1988 Fair condition 4,792 sqft lot Est $67k · 19% over $159/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a warm and welcoming 1988 Mallard park model designed for easy, comfortable living. Step into a sun-filled front living room with a large picture window and left-side slider that create an airy, open feel. Natural light flows throughout, making it perfect for morning coffee, quiet afternoons, or relaxed evenings with friends. The covered porch extends the living space and offers a cozy spot to enjoy the outdoors in every season. The mid-kitchen features a practical split-galley layout with the sink and cabinetry on the left and the refrigerator on the right, plus a windowed dining area ideal for sharing meals or unwinding with a book. Two equal-sized bedrooms provide flexible sle

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Split galley layout
• Windowed dining area

Tags

• SUN FILLED FRONT LIVING ROOM
• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• COVERED PORCH
• MID KITCHEN
• SPLIT GALLEY LAYOUT
• WINDOWED DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned commercial; Lot size approximately 0.11 acre; Located through a security gate (directions available)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $1,910 and a one‑time fee of $955 (equivalent to about $159.17/month); Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, restaurant, playground, and fitness center; Subdivision: Trails End

Exterior

• Parking: 4 open parking spaces (gravel)
• Security: Gated community with guard
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer (connected); Water connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; One level; Residential / Manufactured Home used for recreational purposes; Has a view; Asbestos shingle roof
• Construction: Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private yard; Covered, side, enclosed porch; Sliding doors; Stone fencing; Community outdoor pool; Shed(s); Cleared, level lot; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Free‑standing gas oven; Free‑standing gas range; Free‑standing refrigerator; Microwave; Vented exhaust fan
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Exhaust fan for ventilation; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 6.1% in Gold Key Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#789 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Delaware Valley SD (rural): math 41% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #121 of 539 in PA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Shohola El Sch (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B, #249 of 1,518 statewide, top 19%, 434 students, 40% FRL); Delaware Valley Ms (math 33% / reading 70%, grade C, #109 of 512 statewide, top 22%, 479 students, 38% FRL); Delaware Valley Hs (math 77% / reading 75%, grade A-, #25 of 437 statewide, top 6%, 1,418 students, 37% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($553 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,800 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.47%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,990
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Owego Ln Unit Owego Lane	0.24mi	1/1.0 (-1)	420 (-3%)	22mo	$64,500	$154	59
193 Commanche Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	400 (-8%)	1mo	$72,000	$180	54
149 Arapajo Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0	400 (-8%)	23mo	$76,000	$190	53
973 Beaver Ln	0.28mi	2/1.0	500 (+15%)	14mo	$26,000	$52	50
Lot 4727 Crow Ln	0.62mi	2/1.0	400 (-8%)	11mo	$34,000	$85	49
3911 Aztec Dr	0.35mi	2/1.0	375 (-14%)	24mo	$53,000	$141	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $69,217
• Equity at exit: $72,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $183,993
• Equity at exit: $155,422

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18458

• Home prices YoY: 13.2%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$159
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $901

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $456	-5% $428	+0% $401	+5% $373	+10% $346
Rent	-10% $290	-5% $345	+0% $401	+5% $456	+10% $512
Rate	-1.0pp $441	-0.5pp $421	base $401	+0.5pp $380	+1.0pp $359

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $159 · $1,908/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − HOA: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,881
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$931
• After-tax cash flow: $3,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

A 1988 Mallard park model with average condition, requiring minor repairs and maintenance to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Exterior siding — Weathered appearance
• Minor HVAC unit — Visible but not in use

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace HVAC unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC unit · Visible but not in use	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace HVAC unit — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Delaware Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207530
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,202
• Composite: 46.95/100
• National rank: #2359
• State rank: #121 of 539 in PA

Livability — Gold Key Lake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #789
• US rank: #7969

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,576

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 31.80%
• Current HPI: 272.6294
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $80,000 PWMLS