521 Brynn Marr Rd · Jacksonville, NC 28546

$197,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,541 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1969 0.37 ac lot Est $265k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located within city limits featuring a spacious family room with a cozy fireplace, perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The backyard offers beautiful mature trees providing shade and privacy. This home has great potential and just needs a little TLC to make it truly shine. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and hospital -- a wonderful opportunity to add your personal touch.

Key facts

• Shade and privacy
• Cozy fireplace
• Spacious family room

Tags

• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BEAUTIFUL MATURE TREES
• SHADE AND PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($346/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#111 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bell Fork Elementary (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #633 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 553 students, 71% FRL); Jacksonville Commons Middle (math 39% / reading 47%, grade D-, #191 of 475 statewide, top 41%, 1,011 students, 64% FRL); Northside High (math 67% / reading 55%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,097 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 37% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $198k implies a 137% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,891 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.63%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,052
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
125 Linda Loop	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-1%)	2mo	$138,000	$90	79
414 Brynn Marr Rd	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,393 (-10%)	4mo	$240,000	$172	66
700 Shadowridge Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,662 (+8%)	1mo	$265,000	$159	62
107 Wedgewood Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-15%)	2mo	$242,000	$184	59
405 Thomas Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,363 (-12%)	3mo	$257,000	$189	58
904 Huff Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+5%)	1mo	$279,000	$172	57
133 Silver Leaf Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,500 (-3%)	3mo	$190,500	$127	57
220 E Lakeridge Lndg	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,354 (-12%)	1mo	$265,000	$196	53
216 E Lakeridge Lndg	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-12%)	1mo	$254,000	$188	52
512 E Springhill Ter	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,723 (+12%)	2mo	$280,000	$163	52
101 Huff Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+7%)	3mo	$277,000	$168	51
600 Oakwood Ave	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,738 (+13%)	4mo	$265,000	$152	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-28,802
• Equity at exit: $29,448

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-17,005
• Equity at exit: $17,076

Cash invested: $55,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28546

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,619 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,036
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,585/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,582

Max offer price $197,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $141	-5% $85	+0% $29	+5% $-27	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-35	+0% $29	+5% $93	+10% $157
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $79	base $29	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-74

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,375
• Closing costs: $5,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
507 Birchwood Ct Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,525	$1.16	15d	1	0.18mi
120 Palace Cir Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.5	1378	$1,400	$1.02	23d	1	0.28mi
821 Shadowridge Rd Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.0	1488	$750	$0.50	23d	1	0.71mi
553 Corbin St Lot A-633 Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.0	1216	$48,000	$39.47	23d	1	0.72mi
190 Valencia Dr Unit 110A Jacksonville, NC	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,425	$1.26	23d	1	0.90mi
236 White Oak Blvd Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.0	1275	$1,650	$1.29	23d	1	1.04mi
102 Riverbirch Pl Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,400	$1.58	23d	1	1.13mi
110 Sycamore Dr Jacksonville, NC	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,750	$1.22	23d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $197,500 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $197,500 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $197,500 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-05-21
   listed $197,500 Active
5. 2001-11-27
   soldstatus $83,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,585 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$34/yr (+$3/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,063
• − Property taxes: −$1,585
• − Insurance: −$988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − Depreciation: −$5,745
• Taxable loss: −$3,063
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$735
• After-tax cash flow: $1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #6991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, NC
• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $63,561
• Rent vs Own: 42.2% rent · 57.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1830.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.75%
• Current HPI: 211.9993
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.86%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+136.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $197,500 Hive MLS
• 2001-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $83,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,585 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.