17 Blue Sky Ln · Oceanside, CA 92056

$238,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Timeshare · 13 Days on market

Built 1969 33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRIDE OF OWNERSHIP IN THIS VERY CLEAN AND CUTE COACH LOCATED IN THE RANCHO CALEVERO SENIOR PARK. HIGHLY SOUGHT AFTER 55 + COMMUNITY. EXCELLENT LOCATION: CLOSE TO SHOPPING, DOCTORS, HOSPITAL AND BEACH! COSTCO ONLY 1 MILE AWAY. NEWER CARPET AND UPGRADES THROUGHOUT. CALIFORNIA ROOM IS PERFECT OFFICE. NICE DECK IN BACK YARD WITH SEA BREEZES! SHOWS LIKE A MODEL! * * * SQ. FT. INCLUDES CALIF. ROOM-BUYER TO VERIFY. * * * . Neighborhoods: RANCHO CALEVERO Equipment: Dryer, Washer Other Fees: 0 Sewer: Sewer Connected Topography: LL

Key facts

• Private deck
• Enclosed front patio
• Spa

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• PASS-THROUGH CARPORT
• ENCLOSED FRONT PATIO
• REAR DECK
• POOL
• SPA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: public records
• Financial info: Monthly land lease approximately $722
• HOA & community: Senior community; Land lease community with monthly land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Rancho Calevero community
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Mobile home remains; Mobile dimensions approximately 24 ft by 50 ft
• Exterior features: Private pool; Community pool; Corner lot; Sidewalks

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Main floor bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level entry; One story
• Laundry & utility: Gas and electric dryer hookups; Laundry in unit

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $238k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $840 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $238k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 2.5% in Oceanside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#413 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, crime D, cost of living F.
• Vista Unified (suburban): math 32% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #175 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $238k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.12%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $18,381
• Equity at exit: $35,487

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $99,410
• Equity at exit: $20,578

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92056

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$298 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$660
• Net cashflow: $840

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $238,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4463 Jasper Ln Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	1436	$3,495	$2.43	43d	1	0.15mi
3407 Del Este Way Oceanside, CA	3.0	2.0	1110	$3,434	$3.09	43d	1	0.55mi
3402 Los Mochis Way Oceanside, CA	3.0	2.0	1101	$3,250	$2.95	43d	1	0.58mi
3465 Los Mochis Way Oceanside, CA	2.0	1.5	1280	$3,100	$2.42	16d	1	0.58mi
3657 Harbor View Way Oceanside, CA	3.0	1.5	1191	$3,050	$2.56	43d	1	0.65mi
3556 Thunder Dr Oceanside, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,775	$3.38	2d	1	0.68mi
176 Cedar Rd Vista, CA	1.0	1.0	710	$2,100	$2.96	43d	2	0.70mi
333 N Emerald Dr Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	840	$3,009	$3.58	2d	46	0.76mi
1515 Date St Vista, CA	2.0	2.0	881	$2,795	$3.17	3d	1	0.85mi
3964 Waring Rd Oceanside, CA	1.0	1.0	825	$2,325	$2.82	20d	1	0.97mi
164 Santa Barbara Way Vista, CA	3.0	2.0	1260	$3,800	$3.02	43d	1	0.98mi
315 Pomelo Dr Vista, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$2,400	$2.80	2d	1	1.02mi
701 Breeze Hill Rd Vista, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1013	$3,478	$3.43	2d	1	1.25mi
710 Breeze Hill Rd Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$3,140	$3.57	5d	5	1.26mi
3675 Barnard Dr Oceanside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,895	$3.16	16d	4	1.32mi
3675 Barnard Dr Oceanside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,895	$3.16	24d	3	1.34mi
3675 Barnard Dr Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,845	$2.80	18d	3	1.34mi
3675 Barnard Dr Oceanside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,895	$3.16	5d	7	1.34mi
4717 Majorca Way Oceanside, CA	2.0	2.0	1444	$6,300	$4.36	1d	1	1.40mi
2825 College Blvd Oceanside, CA	3.0	2.0	1140	$3,100	$2.72	43d	1	1.43mi
754 Copper Dr Unit 756 Vista, CA	2.0	2.5	1150	$2,950	$2.57	24d	1	1.46mi
3661 Harvard Dr Oceanside, CA	3.0	2.5	1353	$3,295	$2.44	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $238,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $238,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $238,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $238,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $238,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,738
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,019
• − Management: −$3,019
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable income: $6,685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,604
• After-tax cash flow: $8,472/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vista Unified
• NCES district ID: 0641190
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,067
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3850
• State rank: #175 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oceanside

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #14081

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D Employment A Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oceanside, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 198,702
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 53,616
• Household income: $106,272
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1741.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Asian 8% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 18% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -547.84%
• Current HPI: 383.2036
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.07%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+468.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $238,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-14 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-09-27 Listed $238,000 SDMLS
• 2020-08-19 Sold (MLS) $140,000 SDMLS
• 2020-08-19 Sold (MLS) $140,000 CRMLS
• 2020-07-31 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-07-31 Pending — SDMLS
• 2020-07-09 Listed $153,900 SDMLS
• 2020-07-09 Listed $153,900 CRMLS
• 2013-06-14 Sold (MLS) $41,000 SDMLS
• 2013-05-15 Pending — SDMLS
• 2013-04-23 Listed $41,900 SDMLS