3909 Reche Rd #125 · Fallbrook, CA 92028

$276,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2008 Est $228k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3bd/2bths charming and bright home in country setting Valley Oaks parks. Open floorplan, luxurious laminate flooring throughout, and lots of sun streaming in. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, large island that overlooks the living room with the open concept. Trimmed in crown molding throughout, master suite with walk -in-closet, high ceilings, and connected enclosed patio. Gorgeous lush landscaping with flower garden, fruit frees and much more. This peaceful, well maintained community is surrounded live streams, and meandering walking paths, cited on a canyon lot, a perfect setting! Amenities of the park include use of the pool, Jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house. All Age Park!! Complex features, heated pool/spa, 2 pool tables, shuffleboard, laundry facilities, and car washing station.

Key facts

• Mature fruit trees
• Large yard
• Local wineries

Tags

• VALLEY OAKS PARK COMMUNITY
• LARGE YARD
• MATURE FRUIT TREES
• GREAT PATIO
• VIBRANT AMENITIES OF TEMECULA
• LOCAL WINERIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease information recorded (monthly frequency; source: seller)
• HOA & community: Part of an association; Community amenities include a pool and picnic area; Located in Valley Oaks Park; Community features include curbs; Manager approval required for residency; Pet policy: contact management

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public/district water; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (24' x 48'); Single-story; Mobile home remains on property
• Construction: Year built: as provided by seller
• Exterior features: Covered patio and front porch; Patio; Community pool; Landscaped yard; Garden; Back yard; Secluded setting; Paved road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Microwave; Gas range; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Gas water heater; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedrooms (all bedrooms are on the main level)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub; Shower in tub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: One-level home; Main floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on ground floor; Bonus room; Living room; Family room; Den; Covered entry
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $276k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $680 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $276k).
• Recommended offer: $268k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 2.4% in Fallbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,364 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fallbrook Union High (suburban): math 32% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #183 of 517 in CA (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fallbrook High (math 35% / reading 59%, grade D-, #389 of 1,170 statewide, top 35%, 1,924 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,720 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.55%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,096
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3909 Reche Rd #52	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,152 (0%)	8mo	$115,000	$100	92
3909 Reche Rd #194	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,231 (+7%)	7mo	$250,000	$203	78
3909 Reche #65	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+1%)	23mo	$229,630	$198	75
3909 Reche Rd #183	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	14mo	$270,000	$208	62
3909 Reche Rd #214	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	15mo	$230,000	$177	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-10,129
• Equity at exit: $41,152

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $13,298
• Equity at exit: $23,863

Cash invested: $77,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92028

• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,923 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,447
• Tax from tax record: −$67 /mo · $809/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,063

Max offer price $276,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,000
• Closing costs: $8,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4131 Cyprus Island Ct Fallbrook, CA	2.0	2.0	1432	$3,195	$2.23	1d	1	0.79mi
3043 Ridge Creek Dr Unit Casi Fallbrook, CA	1.0	1.0	1000	$2,500	$2.50	1d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $276,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,000 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $276,000 Active
16. 2022-03-15
    soldstatus $195,000 Sold 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    This 3bd/2bths charming and bright home in country setting Valley Oaks parks. Open floorplan, luxurious laminate flooring throughout, and lots of sun streaming in. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, large island that overlooks the living room with the open concept. Trimmed in crown molding throughout, master suite with walk -in-closet, high ceilings, and connected enclosed patio. Gorgeous lush landscaping with flower garden, fruit frees and much more. This peaceful, well maintained community is surrounded live streams, and meandering walking paths, cited on a canyon lot, a perfect setting! Amenities of the park include use of the pool, Jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house. All Age Park!! Complex features, heated pool/spa, 2 pool tables, shuffleboard, laundry facilities, and car washing station.

17. 2022-01-29
    status Pending 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    This 3bd/2bths charming and bright home in country setting Valley Oaks parks. Open floorplan, luxurious laminate flooring throughout, and lots of sun streaming in. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, large island that overlooks the living room with the open concept. Trimmed in crown molding throughout, master suite with walk -in-closet, high ceilings, and connected enclosed patio. Gorgeous lush landscaping with flower garden, fruit frees and much more. This peaceful, well maintained community is surrounded live streams, and meandering walking paths, cited on a canyon lot, a perfect setting! Amenities of the park include use of the pool, Jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house. All Age Park!! Complex features, heated pool/spa, 2 pool tables, shuffleboard, laundry facilities, and car washing station.

18. 2022-01-09
    listed $177,000 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    This 3bd/2bths charming and bright home in country setting Valley Oaks parks. Open floorplan, luxurious laminate flooring throughout, and lots of sun streaming in. Spacious kitchen with stainless steel appliances, large island that overlooks the living room with the open concept. Trimmed in crown molding throughout, master suite with walk -in-closet, high ceilings, and connected enclosed patio. Gorgeous lush landscaping with flower garden, fruit frees and much more. This peaceful, well maintained community is surrounded live streams, and meandering walking paths, cited on a canyon lot, a perfect setting! Amenities of the park include use of the pool, Jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house. All Age Park!! Complex features, heated pool/spa, 2 pool tables, shuffleboard, laundry facilities, and car washing station.

19. 2018-12-04
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed Sale 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Beautifully maintained manufactured home, and lots of upgrades with huge yard, in one of the most desirable all age communities in North San Diego County. Amenities include 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, custom kitchen, new granite counter tops, all new cabinetry, wood laminate flooring, all kitchen appliances, gorgeous landscaping and very large lot, most desirable location in this all age park with upgrades galore. Amenities of the park include use of the pool, jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house.

20. 2018-11-03
    status Pending Sale 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Beautifully maintained manufactured home, and lots of upgrades with huge yard, in one of the most desirable all age communities in North San Diego County. Amenities include 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, custom kitchen, new granite counter tops, all new cabinetry, wood laminate flooring, all kitchen appliances, gorgeous landscaping and very large lot, most desirable location in this all age park with upgrades galore. Amenities of the park include use of the pool, jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house.

21. 2018-10-11
    price $129,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Beautifully maintained manufactured home, and lots of upgrades with huge yard, in one of the most desirable all age communities in North San Diego County. Amenities include 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, custom kitchen, new granite counter tops, all new cabinetry, wood laminate flooring, all kitchen appliances, gorgeous landscaping and very large lot, most desirable location in this all age park with upgrades galore. Amenities of the park include use of the pool, jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house.

22. 2018-09-19
    price $133,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Beautifully maintained manufactured home, and lots of upgrades with huge yard, in one of the most desirable all age communities in North San Diego County. Amenities include 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, custom kitchen, new granite counter tops, all new cabinetry, wood laminate flooring, all kitchen appliances, gorgeous landscaping and very large lot, most desirable location in this all age park with upgrades galore. Amenities of the park include use of the pool, jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house.

23. 2018-08-02
    price $137,000 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Beautifully maintained manufactured home, and lots of upgrades with huge yard, in one of the most desirable all age communities in North San Diego County. Amenities include 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, custom kitchen, new granite counter tops, all new cabinetry, wood laminate flooring, all kitchen appliances, gorgeous landscaping and very large lot, most desirable location in this all age park with upgrades galore. Amenities of the park include use of the pool, jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house.

24. 2018-07-18
    listed $149,000 Active 512-char remark

    Show marketing remark (512 chars)

    Beautifully maintained manufactured home, and lots of upgrades with huge yard, in one of the most desirable all age communities in North San Diego County. Amenities include 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, custom kitchen, new granite counter tops, all new cabinetry, wood laminate flooring, all kitchen appliances, gorgeous landscaping and very large lot, most desirable location in this all age park with upgrades galore. Amenities of the park include use of the pool, jacuzzi, exercise room, pool table and club house.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $809 · $67/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,098 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,289/yr (+$107/mo · 159.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,080
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,460
• − Property taxes: −$809
• − Insurance: −$1,380
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,806
• − Management: −$2,806
• − Depreciation: −$8,029
• Taxable income: $3,789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$909
• After-tax cash flow: $7,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fallbrook Union High
• NCES district ID: 0613530
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,644
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #4025
• State rank: #183 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fallbrook

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1364
• US rank: #27057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 52,227
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 52,227
• Household income: $111,290
• Rent vs Own: 28.5% rent · 71.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1384.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 21% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -533.50%
• Current HPI: 320.7162
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.35%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+85.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $276,000 CRMLS
• 2022-03-15 Sold (MLS) $195,000 SDMLS
• 2022-01-29 Pending — SDMLS
• 2022-01-09 Listed $177,000 SDMLS
• 2018-12-04 Sold (MLS) $125,000 CRMLS
• 2018-11-03 Pending — CRMLS
• 2018-10-11 Price Changed $129,000 CRMLS
• 2018-09-19 Price Changed $133,000 CRMLS
• 2018-08-02 Price Changed $137,000 CRMLS
• 2018-07-18 Listed $149,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2013): $809 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.