390 Picardy Ct Unit c · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$199,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 982 sqft · SingleFamily · 86 Days on market

Built 1969 Good condition 1,306 sqft lot Garage $203/sqft · 10% below area Est $220k · 10% under $404/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

a vibrant adult community offering comfort, convenience, and low-maintenance living. This beautifully maintained home features a bright and spacious layout with generous living area, kitchen features granite counter tops. Enjoy peaceful mornings in the sunroom/patio overlooking beautifully landscaped grounds. Residents enjoy access to community amenities including pools, clubhouse activities, walking paths and 24-hour gated security, all conveniently located near shopping, dining, medical facilities, and the Jersey Shore. Move right in and enjoy the relaxed lifestyle Leisure Village is known for.

Key facts

• Landscaped grounds
• Community amenities
• Granite counter tops

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• SUNROOM PATIO
• LANDSCAPED GROUNDS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• POOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 655 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 67d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 10956% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,735 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,477
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -9.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
381B Chatham Ct	0.06mi	2/1.0	982 (0%)	1mo	$225,000	$229	97
463D Portsmouth Dr #1004	0.21mi	2/1.0	982 (0%)	1mo	$189,000	$192	90
499B Thornbury Ct	0.27mi	2/1.0	982 (0%)	1mo	$165,000	$168	87
220A Buckingham Ct	0.58mi	2/1.0	982 (0%)	1mo	$179,000	$182	72
53 Cambridge Ct Unit B	0.69mi	2/1.0	987 (+0%)	1mo	$165,000	$167	66
80C Dorchester Dr	0.49mi	2/1.0	928 (-6%)	2mo	$140,000	$151	66
316 Coventry Ct Unit E	0.32mi	2/1.0	858 (-13%)	2mo	$185,000	$216	63
62F Buckingham Dr Unit 100f	0.62mi	2/1.0	928 (-6%)	1mo	$162,000	$175	61
155 Lucy Rd	0.37mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,072 (+9%)	2mo	$610,000	$569	59
115A Buckingham Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,053 (+7%)	2mo	$190,000	$180	54
212D Huntington Dr Unit D	0.55mi	2/1.0	858 (-13%)	2mo	$168,000	$196	52
103F Edinburgh Ln	0.74mi	2/1.0	858 (-13%)	1mo	$185,000	$216	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-47,491
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-60,213
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 49 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.7 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $204,900 ($216/sqft)
• Median days on market: 60 d
• This list price: 44% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$404
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $163,735

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-175	+0% $-244	+5% $-312	+10% $-381
Rent	-10% $-397	-5% $-320	+0% $-244	+5% $-167	+10% $-90
Rate	-1.0pp $-143	-0.5pp $-193	base $-244	+0.5pp $-295	+1.0pp $-348

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
433D Picardy Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,550	$2.34	8d	1	0.02mi
365F Chesterfield Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,500	$2.26	8d	1	0.26mi
363B Chesterfield Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,900	$2.21	22d	1	0.27mi
308 Malvern Ct Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,900	$2.21	8d	1	0.35mi
533E Dartmoor Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,750	$2.64	66d	1	0.37mi
533E Dartmoor Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,750	$2.64	22d	1	0.37mi
335A Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$1,950	$1.99	115d	1	0.49mi
341B Canterbury Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,275	$2.32	118d	1	0.55mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	140d	1	0.56mi
47L Cambridge Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	841	$1,795	$2.13	121d	1	0.72mi
106 Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$1,900	$2.21	25d	1	0.79mi
106A Edinburgh Ln Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	858	$2,200	$2.56	114d	1	0.80mi
523 Sophee Ln #1000 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	889	$1,800	$2.02	95d	1	0.91mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	85d	1	0.92mi
278C Kingston Ct Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	52d	1	0.92mi
1034B Aberdeen Dr Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,350	$2.04	42d	1	0.98mi
1034B Aberdeen Dr Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,350	$2.04	90d	1	0.98mi
1042C Aberdeen Dr Unit C Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,000	$2.04	100d	1	1.06mi
2173 Mount Hood Ln Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	1d	1	1.18mi
841B Inverness Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	52d	1	1.32mi
1100 Deer Path Lakewood, NJ	2.0	1.0–1.5	1187	$2,450	$2.06	8d	4	1.36mi
1734 Yorktowne Blvd Toms River, NJ	1.0	1.0	1072	$3,000	$2.80	50d	1	1.36mi
824A Balmoral Ct Unit A Toms River, NJ	2.0	1.0	982	$2,200	$2.24	115d	1	1.37mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	121d	1	1.44mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Leisure VillageMonthly association fee of $404

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage not specified, includes 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: BARONET
• Exterior features: Shingle roofProperty is attached (e.g., townhouse/condo/attached unit)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces

HOA detail $404/mo · $4,848/yr

• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-08-12
   days on market $199,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-08-11
   days on market $199,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-08-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-08-09
   days on market $199,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-08-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-08-06
   days on market $199,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-08-05
   days on market $199,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-08-04
   days on market $199,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-08-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-07-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-07-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-07-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-07-26
    days on market $199,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-07-24
    days on market $199,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-07-23
    days on market $199,000 Active 65 DOM
17. 2026-07-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 64 DOM
18. 2026-07-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 63 DOM
19. 2026-07-20
    days on market $199,000 Active 62 DOM
20. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-14
    days on market $199,000 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 55 DOM
26. 2026-07-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 54 DOM
27. 2026-07-11
    days on market $199,000 Active 53 DOM
28. 2026-07-10
    days on market $199,000 Active 52 DOM
29. 2026-07-09
    days on market $199,000 Active 51 DOM
30. 2026-07-07
    days on market $199,000 Active 49 DOM
31. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,000 Active 48 DOM
32. 2026-07-06
    days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
33. 2026-07-05
    days on market $199,000 Active 46 DOM
34. 2026-07-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 45 DOM
35. 2026-07-02
    days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
36. 2026-07-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 43 DOM
37. 2026-06-30
    days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
38. 2026-06-29
    days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
39. 2026-06-28
    days on market $199,000 Active 40 DOM
40. 2026-06-27
    days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
41. 2026-06-26
    days on market $199,000 Active 38 DOM
42. 2026-06-24
    days on market $199,000 Active 36 DOM
43. 2026-06-22
    days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
44. 2026-06-21
    days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
45. 2026-06-18
    days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
46. 2026-06-17
    days on market $199,000 Active 29 DOM
47. 2026-06-16
    days on market $199,000 Active 28 DOM
48. 2026-06-15
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
49. 2026-06-13
    days on market $199,000 Active 25 DOM
50. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $199,000 Active 24 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,985
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − HOA: −$4,848
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,481
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 22 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $4,910–$14,730 screening

This well-maintained home in Leisure Village offers a bright and spacious layout with updated kitchen and bathroom. The exterior is clean and the interior is neutral, making it a great move-in-ready property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale kitchen backsplash — modernizes the space ↑
• Resale bathroom vanity — updates the look and functionality ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Street Elem School F NJ #1,030/1,303 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Lakewood Middle School F NJ #376/431 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Lakewood High School F NJ #321/399 Nat'l #12,309/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Leisure VillageMonthly association fee of $404

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached garage not specified, includes 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: BARONET
• Exterior features: Shingle roofProperty is attached (e.g., townhouse/condo/attached unit)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: No fireplaces

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-25 Listed for Rent $1,800 MOMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $199,000 MOMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $215,000 MOMLS