Is 136 Rising Cedar Ln in Hockley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.6% cap rate and $-470/mo modeled cash flow at a $259,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 136 Rising Cedar Ln?

The modeled cap rate is 4.6% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,306/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.21

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +7.0/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
1% rule +2.1/10.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
DSCR +1.2/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$259,900

136 Rising Cedar Ln · Hockley, TX 77447

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,260 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,800 sqft lot 2-car garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.

Key facts

Main-floor layout
Primary suite
Dining area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (1.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (11.3% below list).
Recommended offer: $231k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,609 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.71% ✗
Cap rate: 4.55%
Cash-on-cash: -6.21%
DSCR: 0.72
GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $324,418
List price: $259,900
Delta: -19.89%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Wax Myrtle Way	0.06mi	4/3.0	2,482 (+10%)	4mo	$329,990	$133	75
517 Wax Myrtle Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-10%)	3mo	$314,990	$154	75
553 Wax Myrtle Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,041 (-10%)	5mo	$314,990	$154	74
505 Wax Myrtle Way	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-11%)	3mo	$329,900	$164	73
105 Rising Cedar Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	2,042 (-10%)	7mo	$303,990	$149	71
125 Rising Cedar Ln	0.02mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,498 (+10%)	5mo	$310,990	$124	70
23530 Hargrave Rd	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,115 (-6%)	0mo	$849,900	$402	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -30.4%
Equity multiple: 0.02×
Total profit: $-89,208
Equity at exit: $48,372

10-year hold

IRR: -52.9%
Equity multiple: -0.56×
Total profit: $-142,092
Equity at exit: $28,050

Cash invested: $90,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 46 active · 9 under contract
Months of supply: 39.4 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $299,945 ($138/sqft)
Median days on market: 106 d
This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

Home prices YoY: -31.1%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 2407
Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,306 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,701
Tax est. 1.5%: −$406 /mo · $4,866/yr
Insurance: −$135
HOA: −$50
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,901

Max offer price $256,384

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-246	-5% $-358	+0% $-470	+5% $-582	+10% $-694
Rent	-10% $-652	-5% $-561	+0% $-470	+5% $-379	+10% $-288
Rate	-1.0pp $-307	-0.5pp $-388	base $-470	+0.5pp $-554	+1.0pp $-640

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $81,105
Closing costs: $9,733
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $600 (association details TBD)

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential new constructionBuilt in 2026Slab foundation
Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
Exterior features: Backyard fenceSubdivision lot setting

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countertopsKitchen/family room comboBreakfast bar
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16'5" x 13'0")Three additional bedrooms on the second floor (11'3" x 10'7"; 10'3" x 12'3"; 10'2" x 12'3")
Flooring: CarpetVinyl
Bathrooms: Two full bathroomsOne half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windowsTankless water heater
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupWasher and dryer included

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $259,900 Active 37 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $259,900 Active 36 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $259,900 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $259,900 Active 34 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $259,900 Active 33 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $259,900 Active 32 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $259,900 Active 31 DOM
2026-09-16

pricedays on market $259,900 Active 30 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $274,900 Active 29 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $274,900 Active 28 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $274,900 Active 27 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $274,900 Active 26 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $274,900 Active 19 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $274,900 Active 18 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $274,900 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $274,900 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $274,900 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $274,900 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $274,900 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $274,900 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $274,900 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $274,900 Active 7 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $274,900 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $274,900 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $274,900 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-20

pricedays on market $274,900 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $295,900 Active 2 DOM
2026-08-17

days on marketlisting id $295,900 Active 1 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $295,900 Active 198 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $295,900 Active 197 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $295,900 Active 196 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $295,900 Active 195 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $295,900 Active 194 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $295,900 Active 193 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $295,900 Active 192 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $295,900 Active 191 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $295,900 Active 190 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $295,900 Active 188 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $295,900 Active 187 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $295,900 Active 186 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $295,900 Active 185 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $295,900 Active 182 DOM
2026-07-30

pricedays on market $295,900 Active 180 DOM

Show marketing remark (418 chars)

The desirable Silverbell floor plan offers an expansive main-floor layout, centered around an airy great room. A dining area and a well-equipped kitchen with a center island are steps away and make for the perfect place to entertain. The floor also features a luxurious primary suite, complete with walk-in shower, dual vanities, and a spacious walk-in closet. The upper floor features three bedrooms and a roomy loft.
2026-07-28

days on market $320,900 Active 179 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $320,900 Active 177 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $320,900 Active 175 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $320,900 Active 174 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $320,900 Active 173 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $320,900 Active 172 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $320,900 Active 171 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $27,673
− Mortgage interest: −$18,172
− Property taxes: −$4,866
− Insurance: −$1,622
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,214
− Management: −$2,214
− HOA: −$600
− Depreciation: −$9,438
Taxable loss: −$11,453

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,749
After-tax cash flow: $-2,893/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,300–$33,900 screening

This home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and clean interior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from fresh paint on the exterior and cleaning of gutters to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 60,772 people
City population: 25,231
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,231
Household income: $116,925
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
Current HPI: 249.6969
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

2026-08-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-08-17 Listed $295,900 HARMLS
2026-07-30 Price Changed $295,900 Zillow
2026-07-29 Price Changed $295,900 HARMLS
2026-05-29 Price Changed $300,900 Zillow
2026-01-30 Listed $320,900 HARMLS
2026-01-16 Listed $320,900 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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