652 Burlina Rd · La Marque, TX 77568

$255,190

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $64/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by ACMI Quality Association Management; HOA provides playground, park, pool, and trails; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fence with backyard fencing; Subdivision lot setting; Association pool access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, approx. 15 x 15); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 10 x 11); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 10 x 10); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $255,190 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $289,782.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (2.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (2.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 25% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 410 students, 84% FRL); Hitchcock H S (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 470 students, 77% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $249,140 (2.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,782
• List price: $255,190
• Delta: -11.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
652 Burlina Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,716 (0%)	1mo	$255,190	$149	99
644 Burlina Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,716 (0%)	1mo	$275,990	$161	99
648 Burlina Rd	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-2%)	1mo	$249,990	$149	95
805 Apple Blossom Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,501 (-12%)	1mo	$269,990	$180	66
1074 Garnet Star Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,732 (+1%)	0mo	$295,990	$171	65
862 Sand Crab Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,873 (+9%)	1mo	$255,000	$136	58
1341 Blue Moon Ln	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,872 (+9%)	1mo	$295,990	$158	57
1106 Radiant Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-10%)	1mo	$265,990	$172	54
521 Waterside Ridge Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (+7%)	1mo	$259,950	$142	53
996 Camellia Hills Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-11%)	1mo	$239,000	$157	53
1109 Black Rail St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-11%)	1mo	$245,000	$161	51
1305 Blue Moon Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,491 (-13%)	1mo	$257,990	$173	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,744
• Equity at exit: $43,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-41,889
• Equity at exit: $25,055

Cash invested: $81,139 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,491 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,347/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$64
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $275,542

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,446
• Closing costs: $8,693
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	20d	1	0.58mi
8208 Ash Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1701	$1,795	$1.06	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $64 · $768/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 587-char remark
2. 2026-04-30
   price $255,190 587-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $259,040 Active 587-char remark
4. 2026-04-27
   historical
5. 2026-04-21
   price $259,040
6. 2026-04-17
   listed $277,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,232
• − Property taxes: −$4,347
• − Insurance: −$1,449
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,392
• − Management: −$2,392
• − HOA: −$768
• − Depreciation: −$8,430
• Taxable loss: −$6,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,467
• After-tax cash flow: $286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious open floorplan and is move-in ready, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers
• Rental HVAC maintenance and tune-up — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance and tune-up — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency for tenants ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $255,190 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $259,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $259,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $277,990 HARMLS