119 Avery Dr · Somerset, TX 78069

$185,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,664 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 2018 0.69 ac lot $111/sqft · 36% below area Est $289k · 36% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience country living in this spacious 4 bedroom home in Somerset set on .69 acres, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy a more relaxed setting. This Texas property with land provides a peaceful atmosphere while still allowing for functional everyday living. The open floor plan connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a layout that supports easy flow and flexible use of space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a kitchen island, and wood cabinetry, providing a practical setup for daily use and gatherings. The primary bedroom includes a bathroom with a separate bath and shower, offering basic functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to the layout.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Kitchen island
• Spacious home

Tags

• SPACIOUS HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• WOOD CABINETRY
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (7.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.9% in Somerset — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (6.6% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $185k implies a 307% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,378 (7.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.29%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,375
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -36.07%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
385 Forest Oaks	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,717 (+3%)	2mo	$385,000	$224	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $74,383
• Equity at exit: $123,202

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.97×
• Total profit: $205,784
• Equity at exit: $229,637

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78069

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,714 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $939/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,425

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 50 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $185,000 New 715-char remark

    Show marketing remark (715 chars)

    Experience country living in this spacious 4 bedroom home in Somerset set on .69 acres, offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy a more relaxed setting. This Texas property with land provides a peaceful atmosphere while still allowing for functional everyday living. The open floor plan connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating a layout that supports easy flow and flexible use of space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, a kitchen island, and wood cabinetry, providing a practical setup for daily use and gatherings. The primary bedroom includes a bathroom with a separate bath and shower, offering basic functionality. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience to the layout.

17. 2025-02-15
    historical
18. 2024-08-28
    status Back on Market
19. 2024-08-13
    historical Active Option
20. 2024-07-13
    listed $195,000 New
21. 2024-07-13
    historical
22. 2024-06-08
    price $200,000
23. 2024-05-17
    listed $210,000 New
24. 2019-05-07
    soldstatus $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $939 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,447/yr (+$204/mo · 260.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$939
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,645
• − Management: −$1,645
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$80
• After-tax cash flow: $2,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

Livability — Somerset

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #12187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,904

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 17% White 15% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 76%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 59% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Current HPI: 260.4467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+306.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $185,000 LERA
• 2025-02-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-08-28 Relisted — LERA
• 2024-08-13 Contingent — LERA
• 2024-07-13 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-07-13 Listed $195,000 LERA
• 2024-06-08 Price Changed $200,000 LERA
• 2024-05-17 Listed $210,000 LERA
• 2019-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $45,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $939 · +11.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.