1090 Williamsburg Rd · Millersville, PA 17603

$190,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,060 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1985 6,098 sqft lot Est $250k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely townhome with beautiful finished lower level. Home features: 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, newer carpet, paint, move in ready. * * * New replacement windows throughout. Large lot with covered patio for entertaining and relaxing. Appliances included.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1985

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.0% in Millersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#101 in PA, #728 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Penn Manor SD (suburban): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #80 of 539 in PA (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 292 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $190k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,029 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,160
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1105 Williamsburg Rd	0.08mi	3/1.5	1,060 (0%)	3mo	$250,000	$236	94
1053 Williamsburg Rd	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,060 (0%)	5mo	$264,900	$250	90
1062 Williamsburg Rd	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,060 (0%)	18mo	$235,000	$222	80
1038 Monticello Ln	0.29mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,060 (0%)	2mo	$227,500	$215	80
1077 Monticello Ln	0.40mi	3/1.5	1,060 (0%)	5mo	$255,000	$241	77
1029 Williamsburg Rd	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,060 (0%)	23mo	$255,000	$241	71
1604 Manor Blvd	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,060 (0%)	12mo	$250,000	$236	69
1111 Williamsburg Rd	0.10mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,180 (+11%)	4mo	$255,000	$216	68
1002 Williamsburg Rd	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,060 (0%)	22mo	$245,000	$231	66
1555 Manor Blvd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,060 (0%)	18mo	$258,000	$243	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-24,164
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-24,639
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17603

• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,796/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1116 Williamsburg Rd Lancaster, PA	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,950	$1.39	13d	1	0.14mi
26 Blue Rock Rd Millersville, PA	2.0	1.5	1046	$1,750	$1.67	43d	1	0.66mi
124 Pickwick Pl Millersville, PA	3.0	1.5	796	$1,850	$2.32	13d	1	0.89mi
700 Millersville Rd Lancaster, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	710	$1,694	$2.39	13d	3	0.99mi
100 Country View Ln Millersville, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,838	$1.89	13d	6	1.03mi
231 Kilgannon Ln Unit SU40302 Lancaster, PA	2.0	2.0	1252	$1,730	$1.38	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $190,000 Pending 1 DOM
2. 2026-05-21
   historical $190,000
3. 2014-01-02
   soldstatus $125,500
4. 2013-12-30
   soldstatus $125,500 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Lovely townhome with beautiful finished lower level. Home features: 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, newer carpet, paint, move in ready. * * * New replacement windows throughout. Large lot with covered patio for entertaining and relaxing. Appliances included.

5. 2013-11-05
   historical 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Lovely townhome with beautiful finished lower level. Home features: 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, newer carpet, paint, move in ready. * * * New replacement windows throughout. Large lot with covered patio for entertaining and relaxing. Appliances included.

6. 2013-10-23
   listed $125,000 252-char remark

   Show marketing remark (252 chars)

   Lovely townhome with beautiful finished lower level. Home features: 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, newer carpet, paint, move in ready. * * * New replacement windows throughout. Large lot with covered patio for entertaining and relaxing. Appliances included.

7. 2002-02-14
   soldstatus $89,000
8. 1994-02-01
   soldstatus $78,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,796 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,899 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,796
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$231
• After-tax cash flow: $2,354/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penn Manor SD
• NCES district ID: 4218630
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $59,275
• Composite: 50.67/100
• National rank: #1826
• State rank: #80 of 539 in PA

Livability — Millersville

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #728

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 11,753
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 67,571
• Household income: $77,084
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2557.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -508.78%
• Current HPI: 289.3324
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.47%
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+142.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Coming Soon $190,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $125,500 Public Records
• 2013-12-30 Sold (MLS) $125,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-11-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-10-23 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 1994-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,796 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.