Dogwood Plan · La Marque, TX 77568

$297,240

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,310 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 14 days

🏗️ New construction. The $297,240 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,491.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $268k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,136 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Hitchcock ISD (suburban): math 28% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #628 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $267,720 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.27%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,491
• List price: $297,240
• Delta: 1.28%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1234 Sacred Light Ln	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,364 (+2%)	1mo	$318,990	$135	83
26251 Astral Way	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,139 (-7%)	2mo	$299,990	$140	80
26152 Ethereal Rd	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,246 (-3%)	7mo	$319,990	$142	79
1333 Blue Moon Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,169 (-6%)	3mo	$292,990	$135	76
1226 Sacred Light Ln	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,069 (-10%)	1mo	$292,990	$142	70
5531 Blackbird Ln	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,153 (-7%)	6mo	$284,995	$132	64
5535 Blackbird Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,495 (+8%)	4mo	$297,995	$119	64
5619 Sanderling Cir	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,495 (+8%)	2mo	$322,995	$129	64
5615 Sanderling Cir	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,153 (-7%)	6mo	$279,995	$130	62
656 Blackberry Ln	0.59mi	4/3.5	2,231 (-3%)	1mo	$317,810	$142	62
747 Red Mulberry St	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-13%)	7mo	$325,900	$162	45
664 Woodhaven Lakes Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,012 (-13%)	5mo	$349,900	$174	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-39,410
• Equity at exit: $43,760

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-16,233
• Equity at exit: $25,376

Cash invested: $82,177 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,539
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,402/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,567

Max offer price $293,491

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,373
• Closing costs: $8,805
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14403 Daniel Shores Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	3.0–3.5	1872	$2,600	$1.39	1d	12	1.02mi
453 Maple Bend Ln La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,071	$1.11	20d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $297,240 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $297,240 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $297,240 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $297,240 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,240 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $297,240 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $297,240 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $297,240 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 255-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $297,240 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $297,240 Active 945 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $297,240 Active 944 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $297,240 Active 943 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $297,240 Active 942 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $296,740 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

16. 2025-08-12
    price $295,740 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

17. 2025-08-12
    price $297,740 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

18. 2025-07-02
    price $295,740 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

19. 2025-04-05
    price $305,740 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

20. 2025-03-08
    price $304,740 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

21. 2025-03-06
    price $303,990 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

22. 2025-01-25
    price $302,990 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

23. 2024-07-18
    price $300,990 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

24. 2024-05-10
    price $300,490 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

25. 2024-04-02
    price $299,990 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

26. 2024-03-07
    price $298,240 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

27. 2024-02-10
    price $297,240 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

28. 2023-11-01
    listed $295,490 Active 255-char remark

    Show marketing remark (255 chars)

    Welcome to the Dogwood, a thoughtfully designed two-story plan from our exclusive Smart Series. This versatile floorplan offers 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, an optional 3-car garage, and between 2,310 to 2,372 square feet of thoughtfully crafted living space.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 52% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,440
• − Property taxes: −$4,402
• − Insurance: −$1,467
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,570
• − Management: −$2,570
• − Depreciation: −$8,538
• Taxable loss: −$3,862
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$927
• After-tax cash flow: $1,968/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in the Dogwood plan from the Smart Series is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hitchcock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823310
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,041
• Composite: 25.5/100
• National rank: #7439
• State rank: #628 of 826 in TX

Livability — La Marque

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #20037

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: La Marque, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $296,740 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $295,740 Zillow
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $297,740 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $295,740 Zillow
• 2025-04-05 Price Changed $305,740 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $304,740 Zillow
• 2025-03-06 Price Changed $303,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-25 Price Changed $302,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-18 Price Changed $300,990 Zillow
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $300,490 Zillow
• 2024-04-02 Price Changed $299,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-07 Price Changed $298,240 Zillow
• 2024-02-10 Price Changed $297,240 Zillow
• 2023-11-01 Listed $295,490 Zillow