9309 Chaparral Dr · Sulphur Springs, AR 71603

$105,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 61 Days on market

Built 2008 2.08 ac lot $62/sqft · at area comps Est $107k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful country living on 2.08 acres! This well maintained 3BR/2BA home features a spacious primary suite with walk-in closet and garden tub, plus a mud room and double-pane windows. Appliances stay, including washer and dryer. Recent updates include roof (2018), HVAC (2021), hot water heater (2021), and utility pole (2025). A storm shelter provides added security, and the acreage offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. (New septic being installed currently. )

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Storm shelter
• Double-pane windows

Tags

• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• GARDEN TUB
• MUD ROOM
• DOUBLE-PANE WINDOWS
• STORM SHELTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $212 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 4.4% in Sulphur Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#192 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.66%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,886
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -1.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6601 Camden Cutoff Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	1mo	$105,000	$73	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-3,477
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $14,453
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $212

Break-even live

Break-even rent $919

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $105,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $105,000 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Peaceful country living on 2.08 acres! This well maintained 3BR/2BA home features a spacious primary suite with walk-in closet and garden tub, plus a mud room and double-pane windows. Appliances stay, including washer and dryer. Recent updates include roof (2018), HVAC (2021), hot water heater (2021), and utility pole (2025). A storm shelter provides added security, and the acreage offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. (New septic being installed currently. )

18. 2026-04-19
    listed $97,500 New Listing 470-char remark

    Show marketing remark (470 chars)

    Peaceful country living on 2.08 acres! This well maintained 3BR/2BA home features a spacious primary suite with walk-in closet and garden tub, plus a mud room and double-pane windows. Appliances stay, including washer and dryer. Recent updates include roof (2018), HVAC (2021), hot water heater (2021), and utility pole (2025). A storm shelter provides added security, and the acreage offers plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. (New septic being installed currently. )

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,247
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,140
• − Management: −$1,140
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$223
• After-tax cash flow: $2,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Sulphur Springs

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #15295

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sulphur Springs, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+7.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $105,000 CARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listed $97,500 CARMLS