318 Peacock Ln · Kelso, WA 98626

$145,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · Manufactured public records · 203 Days on market

Built 1992 4,900 sqft lot $101/sqft · 24% above area Est $117k · 24% over ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Den,spacious living areas, dining room, kitchen with instant hot water, oak cabinets and appliances that stay. 2 car covered parking. New heat pump, new roof, and recent exterior paint. Excellent access provided by wheelchair lift and master bathroom with grab/support bars. Well maintained, well landscaped, and very low maintenance. Overall very clean and very nicely kept home.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Additional parking
• Instant hot water

Tags

• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• INSTANT HOT WATER
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED STORAGE SHED
• ATTACHED TWO-CAR CARPORT
• ADDITIONAL PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $304 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.4% in Kelso — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#324 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Kelso School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 291 in WA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 348 units permitted in Cowlitz County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cowlitz County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 203 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 203% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $145k implies a 209% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $127,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 203 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.99%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,000
• List price: $145,000
• Delta: 23.93%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2388 Sparrow Loop #155	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+0%)	1mo	$64,900	$45	92
2430 Meadowlark Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+0%)	2mo	$57,900	$40	90
2423 Nightingale Ln	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+0%)	12mo	$55,000	$38	84
2425 Kingfisher Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+0%)	13mo	$45,000	$31	76
2415 Nightingale Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+0%)	16mo	$70,000	$49	76
2392 Kingfisher	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	7mo	$125,000	$96	71
2451 Kingfisher Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-6%)	13mo	$69,999	$52	67
2376 Kingfisher Ln	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	5mo	$75,000	$60	66
151 Cardinal Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,223 (-15%)	3mo	$124,000	$101	66
2368 Kingfisher Ln	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,240 (-14%)	21mo	$54,000	$44	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,256
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $30,836
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98626

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$181 /mo · $2,175/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $404	-5% $354	+0% $304	+5% $254	+10% $204
Rent	-10% $173	-5% $239	+0% $304	+5% $369	+10% $435
Rate	-1.0pp $377	-0.5pp $341	base $304	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
151 Cardinal Ln Unit None Kelso, WA	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,700	$1.39	44d	1	0.06mi
910 Elizabeth St Kelso, WA	3.0	1.0	1075	$1,625	$1.51	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 203 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 200 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 197 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on marketlisting id $145,000 Active 194 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $145,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $145,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2012-10-18
    soldstatus $47,000 Sold 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Den,spacious living areas, dining room, kitchen with instant hot water, oak cabinets and appliances that stay. 2 car covered parking. New heat pump, new roof, and recent exterior paint. Excellent access provided by wheelchair lift and master bathroom with grab/support bars. Well maintained, well landscaped, and very low maintenance. Overall very clean and very nicely kept home.

15. 2012-10-18
    soldstatus $47,000 Sold

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Den,spacious living areas, dining room, kitchen with instant hot water, oak cabinets and appliances that stay. 2 car covered parking. New heat pump, new roof, and recent exterior paint. Excellent access provided by wheelchair lift and master bathroom with grab/support bars. Well maintained, well landscaped, and very low maintenance. Overall very clean and very nicely kept home.

16. 2012-09-13
    status Pending Inspection

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Den,spacious living areas, dining room, kitchen with instant hot water, oak cabinets and appliances that stay. 2 car covered parking. New heat pump, new roof, and recent exterior paint. Excellent access provided by wheelchair lift and master bathroom with grab/support bars. Well maintained, well landscaped, and very low maintenance. Overall very clean and very nicely kept home.

17. 2012-09-13
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Den,spacious living areas, dining room, kitchen with instant hot water, oak cabinets and appliances that stay. 2 car covered parking. New heat pump, new roof, and recent exterior paint. Excellent access provided by wheelchair lift and master bathroom with grab/support bars. Well maintained, well landscaped, and very low maintenance. Overall very clean and very nicely kept home.

18. 2012-09-13
    status Pending 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Den,spacious living areas, dining room, kitchen with instant hot water, oak cabinets and appliances that stay. 2 car covered parking. New heat pump, new roof, and recent exterior paint. Excellent access provided by wheelchair lift and master bathroom with grab/support bars. Well maintained, well landscaped, and very low maintenance. Overall very clean and very nicely kept home.

19. 2012-09-07
    listed $47,900 Active 380-char remark

    Show marketing remark (380 chars)

    Den,spacious living areas, dining room, kitchen with instant hot water, oak cabinets and appliances that stay. 2 car covered parking. New heat pump, new roof, and recent exterior paint. Excellent access provided by wheelchair lift and master bathroom with grab/support bars. Well maintained, well landscaped, and very low maintenance. Overall very clean and very nicely kept home.

20. 2012-09-05
    listed $47,900 Active
21. 2006-08-22
    soldstatus $43,000
22. 2006-07-26
    listed $45,000
23. 1992-06-11
    soldstatus $47,831

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥88°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,175
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $3,307/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kelso School District
• NCES district ID: 5300003
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,840
• Composite: 39.83/100
• National rank: #7963
• State rank: #191 of 291 in WA

Livability — Kelso

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #12232

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kelso, WA
• County: Cowlitz County · 77,527 people
• City population: 26,892
• Metro: Longview, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,892
• Household income: $75,528
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 722.0

Population outlook (Cowlitz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 104,780 people
• By 2030: 103,980 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 100,769 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 96,685 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 86,454 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 74,052 · -29.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cowlitz

• 2024 margin: R (+19.9) · D 38.7% · R 58.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: 11.2pp · 2024: -19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.9 2020: R+17.4 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -321.36%
• Current HPI: 262.8196
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.10%
• Metro: Longview, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2012-10-18 Sold (MLS) $47,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-18 Sold (MLS) $47,000 RMLS
• 2012-09-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-13 Pending — RMLS
• 2012-09-07 Listed $47,900 RMLS
• 2012-09-05 Listed $47,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-08-22 Sold (MLS) $43,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-26 Listed $45,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $47,831 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $241 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.