Ashford Plan · Bismarck, ND 58503

$139,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 891 sqft · Townhouse · 284 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Car wash bay
• Guest suite
• Garden plots

Tags

• ONE-LEVEL LIVING SPACE
• GUEST SUITE
• GARDEN PLOTS
• UNDERGROUND HEATED PARKING
• CAR WASH BAY
• FULLY SECURE BUILDING

🏗️ New construction. The $139,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $221,461.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $139k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-512 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (7.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C, #52 of 236 statewide, top 22%, 496 students, 5% FRL); Horizon Middle School (math 42% / reading 50%, grade D+, #13 of 35 statewide, top 35%, 1,044 students, 14% FRL); Century High School (math 43% / reading 63%, grade C-, #14 of 144 statewide, top 9%, 1,427 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 748 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 284 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $122,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 284 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.91%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,461
• List price: $139,000
• Delta: -37.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6201 Tyler Pkwy #142	1.25mi	1/1.0	902 (+1%)	15mo	$324,900	$360	50
2910 Ontario Ln	1.37mi	2/2.0 (+1)	982 (+10%)	10mo	$149,500	$152	31
1117 Lasalle Dr E #1	0.97mi	1/1.0	800 (-10%)	22mo	$164,900	$206	30
2910 Ontario Ln #5	1.37mi	2/2.0 (+1)	992 (+11%)	9mo	$130,000	$131	30
4912 Ottawa St #7	0.97mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,078 (+21%)	2mo	$224,000	$208	29
1113 Lasalle Dr E #3	0.92mi	2/1.0 (+1)	819 (-8%)	24mo	$168,900	$206	26
2900 Ontario Ln NE #1	1.37mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+13%)	17mo	$109,900	$109	24
829 Canada Ave #2	0.76mi	2/2.0 (+1)	956 (+7%)	26mo	$190,000	$199	24
2930 Ontario Ln #8	1.39mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (+13%)	21mo	$134,500	$133	20
3255 Montreal St	1.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,064 (+19%)	18mo	$119,900	$113	20
2900 4th St N	1.46mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,109 (+24%)	20mo	$199,900	$180	19
4916 Ottawa St #3	0.94mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,083 (+22%)	18mo	$203,000	$187	16

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-61,657
• Equity at exit: $33,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-64,582
• Equity at exit: $19,148

Cash invested: $62,009 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $166,950 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 144 d
• This list price: 50% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +38.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 58503

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 748
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,161
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,322/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $-512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $147,386

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-359	-5% $-435	+0% $-512	+5% $-588	+10% $-665
Rent	-10% $-614	-5% $-563	+0% $-512	+5% $-461	+10% $-410
Rate	-1.0pp $-400	-0.5pp $-456	base $-512	+0.5pp $-569	+1.0pp $-628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,365
• Closing costs: $6,644
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4201 Montreal St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$1,321	$1.21	0d	12	0.55mi
220 E Greenfield Ln Unit B-403 Bismarck, ND	1.0	1.0	763	$1,336	$1.75	162d	1	0.81mi
226 E Greenfield Ln Unit A-406 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	867	$1,486	$1.71	162d	1	0.81mi
226 E Greenfield Ln Bismarck, ND	1.0	1.0	593	$1,150	$1.94	28d	1	0.81mi
425 E Calgary Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	1020	$1,421	$1.39	0d	4	1.05mi
3415 Montreal St Apt 202 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,365	$1.29	10d	1	1.13mi
444 E Brandon Dr Bismarck, ND	2.0–3.0	2.0	900	$1,110	$1.23	162d	1	1.16mi
2724 Hawken St Bismarck, ND	1.0	1.0	764	$1,010	$1.32	0d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 891
• Financial info: List price $139,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-level plan (Ashford)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address at N Washington Street and Medora Ave, Bismarck, ND

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Plan name: Ashford

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 284 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $139,000 Active 283 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $139,000 Active 282 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $139,000 Active 281 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $139,000 Active 280 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $139,000 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $139,000 Active 277 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $139,000 Active 276 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $139,000 Active 275 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $139,000 Active 274 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 273 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $139,000 Active 272 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 271 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $139,000 Active 270 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 269 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $139,000 Active 268 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $139,000 Active 267 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $139,000 Active 266 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $139,000 Active 265 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $139,000 Active 264 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $139,000 Active 263 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $139,000 Active 262 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $139,000 Active 261 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $139,000 Active 260 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $139,000 Active 259 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $139,000 Active 258 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $139,000 Active 257 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $139,000 Active 256 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $139,000 Active 255 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $139,000 Active 254 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $139,000 Active 253 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $139,000 Active 252 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $139,000 Active 251 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $139,000 Active 250 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $139,000 Active 249 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $139,000 Active 248 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $139,000 Active 247 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $139,000 Active 246 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $139,000 Active 245 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $139,000 Active 244 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $139,000 Active 243 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $139,000 Active 242 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $139,000 Active 241 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $139,000 Active 240 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 239 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $139,000 Active 238 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $139,000 Active 237 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $139,000 Active 235 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $139,000 Active 234 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $139,000 Active 233 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,405
• − Property taxes: −$3,322
• − Insurance: −$1,107
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$6,442
• Taxable loss: −$10,281
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,467
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,676/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $44,550–$80,190 screening

This property requires extensive renovation and updating to improve its condition and value. Significant work is needed on the exterior, interior, and systems to make it move-in ready.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof in the satellite image.
• Major exterior — No visible exterior in the satellite image.
• Major flooring — No visible flooring in the satellite image.
• Major interior walls/paint — No visible interior walls/paint in the satellite image.
• Major bathrooms — No visible bathrooms in the satellite image.
• Major kitchen — No visible kitchen in the satellite image.
• Major systems — No visible systems in the satellite image.
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal in the satellite image.

Value-add opportunities

• Both extensive exterior renovation — A complete renovation of the exterior would significantly improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both interior paint and updates — Updating the interior paint and adding modern fixtures would enhance both resale and rental appeal. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape would attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing the kitchen and bathrooms would make the home more attractive to a broader range of potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Liberty Elementary School C ND #52/236 Nat'l #10,986/41,679 Middle Horizon Middle School D+ ND #13/35 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Century High School C- ND #14/144 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

B Composite livability gradescore 79/100

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 119,359 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 37,683
• Household income: $102,333
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.96%
• Current HPI: 223.9683
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.79%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 891
• Financial info: List price $139,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-level plan (Ashford)
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address at N Washington Street and Medora Ave, Bismarck, ND

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Plan name: Ashford