11776 Talbott · Spanish Lake, MO 63138

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,495 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1956 0.48 ac lot $100/sqft · 14% below area Est $174k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out this perfect investment opportunity!!! This three-bedroom; one-bathroom located in North St. Louis County, MO has an all brick exterior in the front, carport, and a rear deck. The interior has been freshly painted all neutral colors, with brand new luxury vinyl plank flooring, full kitchen with kitchen appliances, and main level laundry. Finished walk out basement with plenty of room for storage. Property is currently occupied bringing in $1,406/month, HUD pays the majority of that portion.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $120 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#870 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 101 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $150k implies a 270% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.44%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,343
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -11.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1730 Parktree Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+6%)	2mo	$225,000	$142	82
1911 Redman Rd	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,454 (-3%)	2mo	$144,900	$100	79
11939 Lakecrest Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,535 (+3%)	8mo	$175,000	$114	71
1921 Lakeheights Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-0%)	9mo	$114,400	$77	70
1548 Bayonne Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+1%)	8mo	$135,000	$90	61
1647 Talisman Ln	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+7%)	6mo	$180,000	$113	60
1877 Claudine Dr	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,378 (-8%)	4mo	$180,000	$131	60
11652 Las Ladera Dr	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,436 (-4%)	2mo	$180,000	$125	54
11525 Francetta Ln	0.49mi	3/3.0	1,705 (+14%)	2mo	$225,000	$132	48
2015 Claudine Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+13%)	6mo	$190,000	$112	45
2141 Rountree Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,318 (-12%)	2mo	$249,997	$190	44
11377 Fox Hall Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-12%)	6mo	$154,900	$118	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-20,877
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-24,728
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63138

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 101
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,173/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1911 Redman Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1454	$1,495	$1.03	1d	1	0.23mi
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,325	$1.23	1d	3	0.47mi
1708 San Remo Ct St. Louis, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1053	$1,300	$1.23	1d	9	0.58mi
11592 Las Ladera Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	986	$1,616	$1.64	7d	1	0.68mi
1516 Farmview Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1156	$1,295	$1.12	43d	1	0.71mi
1504 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1014	$1,299	$1.28	4d	1	0.74mi
1459 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1150	$1,550	$1.35	20d	1	0.77mi
11185 Oak Parkway Ln St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1412	$1,075	$0.76	1d	1	0.79mi
11321 Amboy Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	3.0	1182	$1,756	$1.49	1d	1	0.82mi
12035 Krenning Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,125	$0.96	23d	1	0.83mi
1473 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	43d	1	0.84mi
1510 Trampe Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1581	$1,600	$1.01	1d	1	0.84mi
1455 Broadlawns Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,395	$1.53	12d	1	0.87mi
1376 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,365	$1.48	23d	1	1.00mi
1386 Fairmeadows Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1512	$1,250	$0.83	43d	1	1.00mi
1359 Cove Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	925	$1,427	$1.54	1d	1	1.03mi
11726 Criterion Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,420	$1.18	23d	1	1.09mi
1310 Petite Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1407	$1,495	$1.06	23d	1	1.13mi
12303 Benham Rd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1845	$1,771	$0.96	17d	1	1.18mi
1223 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	936	$1,800	$1.92	43d	1	1.18mi
1218 Walker Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	936	$1,275	$1.36	23d	1	1.19mi
1172 June Ave Saint Louis, MO	4.0	2.0	1142	$1,400	$1.23	43d	1	1.26mi
1321 Dominica Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,400	$1.38	43d	1	1.27mi
1209 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1535	$1,295	$0.84	43d	1	1.28mi
1202 Laredo Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	16d	1	1.30mi
1132 Redman Blvd Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $149,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,900 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,900 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,900 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $154,900 Active 505-char remark

    Show marketing remark (505 chars)

    Check out this perfect investment opportunity!!! This three-bedroom; one-bathroom located in North St. Louis County, MO has an all brick exterior in the front, carport, and a rear deck. The interior has been freshly painted all neutral colors, with brand new luxury vinyl plank flooring, full kitchen with kitchen appliances, and main level laundry. Finished walk out basement with plenty of room for storage. Property is currently occupied bringing in $1,406/month, HUD pays the majority of that portion.

17. 2025-05-22
    historical $1,600
18. 2025-03-15
    listed $1,600
19. 2020-07-15
    soldstatus $40,500
20. 2020-07-15
    soldstatus $53,000
21. 2020-07-15
    soldstatus $80,000
22. 2009-07-27
    soldstatus $26,150
23. 2000-05-30
    soldstatus $79,900
24. 1964-07-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,467
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,173
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,008
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$242
• After-tax cash flow: $1,685/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Spanish Lake

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #870
• US rank: #25189

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spanish Lake, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 18,233
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 18,233
• Household income: $56,096
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 925.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 81% White 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.09%
• Current HPI: 165.2146
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+93.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $154,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-22 Rental Removed $1,600 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-03-15 Listed for Rent $1,600 PROPERTYWARE
• 2020-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $53,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records
• 2009-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $26,150 Public Records
• 2000-05-30 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1964-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,173 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.