20593 Pebble Glen Dr · Estero, FL 33928

$449,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 6,499 sqft lot Est $487k · 8% under $377/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged, AI generated or rendered. LONG SOUTHERLY WATER VIEWS! NO CORKSCREW ROAD NOISE TO DEAL WITH! IMMACULATE, MOVE IN READY “HALLMARK” IS NOW AVAILABLE IN VERDANA VILLAGE. All the benefits of new construction without the wait! Built by Pulte Homes in 2025, this home offers IMPACT RESISTANT WINDOWS/DOORS, 3 Bedrooms, 2 Full Baths, 2 Car Garage, 1650sf living area. This stunning residence is situated on a HIGHLY DESIRABLE WATERFRONT homesite with SOUTHEASTERN REAR EXPOSURE. The backyard is ready for you to build your own custom pool and/or a fence for your children and pets to play. The SCREENED COVERED LANAI provides a peaceful place to r

Key facts

• Waterfront homesite
• Gourmet kitchen
• Natural gas range

Tags

• IMPACT RESISTANT WINDOWS
• WATERFRONT HOMESITE
• SCREENED COVERED LANAI
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• NATURAL GAS RANGE
• POCKETING SLIDING GLASS DOOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master association fee $181 monthly; HOA fee $196.53 monthly; One-time other fee $1,700; Total annual recurring fees $4,536; Total one-time fees $5,200; Professional management; HOA maintenance includes insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, pest control (exterior), repairs, security, street maintenance, street lights, legal/accounting, manager, and master association fee included; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, bocce court, basketball, play area, cabana, barbecue/picnic, restaurant, community park, community room, sidewalk, underground utilities, private membership

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community with guard at gate
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Natural gas available; Cable available; Electric service for heat and cooling
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story / ranch; Rear exposure facing southeast; Located in the Verdana Village community
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior finish; Tile roof; Impact-resistant doors and windows; Single-hung and sliding windows; Year built 2025
• Exterior features: Room for pool; Automatic sprinkler system; Open porch/lanai; Screened lanai/porch; Lake view/waterfront (lake); Irrigation from lake/canal; Paved private road access; Regular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas available; Kitchen island; Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/ice maker; Self-cleaning oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms with a first-floor/master-on-ground layout and split bedroom plan
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Cable prewire; Foyer; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Window coverings; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in residence; Washer; Dryer; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $449k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $990 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $449k).
• Recommended offer: $436k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Lee County High School (math 18% / reading 29%, grade F, #533 of 667 statewide, top 80%, 1,896 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,265/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($103k/yr) (locally 606% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $435,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.45%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $486,750
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20604 Pebble Glen Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,655 (+0%)	19mo	$439,735	$266	82
18297 Ridgeline Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+2%)	9mo	$445,000	$265	76
20590 Pebble Glen Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-15%)	3mo	$437,000	$311	66
20564 Pebble Glen Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-15%)	8mo	$440,000	$313	61
20506 Pebble Glen Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,405 (-15%)	14mo	$415,000	$295	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-25,014
• Equity at exit: $66,947

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $269
• Equity at exit: $38,821

Cash invested: $125,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,265 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,355
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,007/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$377
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,106
• Net cashflow: $990

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,012

Max offer price $449,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,250
• Closing costs: $13,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20530 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2099	$5,950	$2.83	24d	1	0.15mi
20514 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	2.0	2.0	1670	$5,700	$3.41	24d	1	0.19mi
18546 Ives Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$8,250	$4.06	24d	1	0.23mi
18315 Ridgeline Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,750	$1.70	16d	1	0.29mi
20419 Pebble Glen Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2088	$6,490	$3.11	24d	1	0.45mi
20285 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2133	$6,200	$2.91	24d	1	0.48mi
18282 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2126	$10,000	$4.70	24d	1	0.63mi
19278 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2201	$3,395	$1.54	3d	1	0.65mi
18262 Parksville Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2098	$3,700	$1.76	24d	1	0.65mi
20492 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,250	$1.60	24d	1	0.72mi
20492 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,250	$1.60	10d	1	0.72mi
19218 Hinkley Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$3,000	$1.81	14d	1	0.79mi
20024 Hartford Blvd Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2081	$6,950	$3.34	24d	1	0.83mi
20047 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$9,000	$4.09	3d	1	0.83mi
20015 Napa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$8,000	$3.63	24d	1	0.85mi
21110 Verawood Loop Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.99mi
19228 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$3,300	$1.62	24d	1	1.02mi
19232 Gentry Pl Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2202	$3,800	$1.73	24d	1	1.03mi
19712 Deming Ln Estero, FL	3.0	3.0	2091	$8,500	$4.07	21d	1	1.36mi
19701 Deming Ln Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2032	$6,500	$3.20	24d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $377 · $4,524/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,000 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $449,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $449,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $449,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $449,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $449,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $449,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $449,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $449,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $449,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-04-29
    listed $449,000 Active
14. 2024-04-01
    soldstatus $3,970,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,007 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,727 · $311/mo
• Expected delta: +$720/yr (+$60/mo · 24.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,151
• − Property taxes: −$3,007
• − Insurance: −$2,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,054
• − Management: −$5,054
• − HOA: −$4,524
• − Depreciation: −$13,062
• Taxable income: $5,081
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,219
• After-tax cash flow: $10,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home offers stunning waterfront views and modern amenities, making it an excellent investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Custom pool or fence installation — Can increase the home's appeal and value for both buyers and renters.
• Both Add smart home features — Can increase the home's appeal and value for both buyers and renters by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Custom pool or fence installation — Can increase the home's appeal and value for both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Can increase the home's appeal and value for both buyers and renters by enhancing convenience and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 130,638
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-88.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $449,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $3,970,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,007 · +30.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.