15607 Sheldon Ridge Way · Sheldon, TX 77044

$279,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2016 5,074 sqft lot $120/sqft · 20% below area Est $347k · 20% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open island kitchen with lots of counter space, tile back splash. Master suite is downstairs and includes an over sized shower with double vanity sinks. Radiant barrier/tech shield roof decking, 2' inch faux wood blinds, vinyl double pane tilt out windows, covered concrete patio, and much more!!!!! READY NOW!!

Key facts

• New flooring
• Updated home
• Wood stairs

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW FLOORING
• BACKYARD FENCE
• WOOD STAIRS
• GAME ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller indicates lease not considered
• HOA & community: Sheldon Ridge HOA with annual fee of $345

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2016; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding exterior
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13x14); Bedroom on second floor (13x17); Bedroom on second floor (11x13); Bedroom on second floor (11x12); Game room on second floor (12x19) — can function as additional bedroom/bonus space
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bathroom; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-572 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (36.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Michael R Null Middle (math 15% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 1,164 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 72% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,991 (36.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.76%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,825
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -19.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11346 Cascading Stream Way	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,378 (+2%)	2mo	$282,500	$119	78
11307 Brandy Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,334 (+1%)	9mo	$459,900	$197	78
15826 Sheldon Ridge Way	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,374 (+2%)	11mo	$243,000	$102	75
11026 E Early Dusk Cir	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,999 (-14%)	10mo	$219,000	$110	66
15239 Statice Trl	0.32mi	4/3.5	2,489 (+7%)	9mo	$368,990	$148	61
15319 Meandering Post Trl	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,559 (+10%)	6mo	$260,000	$102	58
15307 Meandering Post Trl	0.45mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,469 (+6%)	2mo	$325,000	$132	57
11107 Snapdragon Field Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,117 (-9%)	13mo	$333,990	$158	55
11111 Snapdragon Field Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,659 (+15%)	11mo	$377,175	$142	47
11127 Gardenia Creek Dr	0.50mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,532 (+9%)	11mo	$383,085	$151	44
15323 Statice Trl	0.27mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,657 (+14%)	15mo	$416,575	$157	40
15235 Statice Trl	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,657 (+14%)	15mo	$398,175	$150	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-69,118
• Equity at exit: $59,586

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-108,940
• Equity at exit: $56,172

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$713 /mo · $8,561/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $-572

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,023

Max offer price $177,991

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $279,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    historical
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $279,000 Active 644-char remark
16. 2026-04-02
    listed $289,900 Active
17. 2016-09-29
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Open island kitchen with lots of counter space, tile back splash. Master suite is downstairs and includes an over sized shower with double vanity sinks. Radiant barrier/tech shield roof decking, 2' inch faux wood blinds, vinyl double pane tilt out windows, covered concrete patio, and much more!!!!! READY NOW!!

18. 2016-09-14
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Open island kitchen with lots of counter space, tile back splash. Master suite is downstairs and includes an over sized shower with double vanity sinks. Radiant barrier/tech shield roof decking, 2' inch faux wood blinds, vinyl double pane tilt out windows, covered concrete patio, and much more!!!!! READY NOW!!

19. 2016-07-07
    listed $186,406 Active

    Show marketing remark (311 chars)

    Open island kitchen with lots of counter space, tile back splash. Master suite is downstairs and includes an over sized shower with double vanity sinks. Radiant barrier/tech shield roof decking, 2' inch faux wood blinds, vinyl double pane tilt out windows, covered concrete patio, and much more!!!!! READY NOW!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,561 · $713/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,561 · $713/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$8,561
• − Insurance: −$2,192
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,207
• − Management: −$2,207
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$11,669
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,801
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sheldon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+49.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2016-09-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-09-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2016-07-07 Listed $186,406 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,561 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.