1311 N 38th St · Fort Smith, AR 72904

$125,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1945 0.27 ac lot Est $158k · 21% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bathroom house for sale! This house has a lot to offer from beautiful flooring, fresh paint, new appliances to newer roof. Great starter house, don't miss your opportunity to call this home!

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1945
• Listed 86 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; House
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric water heater; Microwave; Range; Partial fencing; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($641/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $104k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.3% in Fort Smith — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#151 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fort Smith School District (urban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #106 of 238 in AR (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Albert Pike Elementary School (math 19% / reading 21%, grade F, #376 of 454 statewide, top 84%, 356 students, 90% FRL); William O. Darby Jr. High Sch. (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #164 of 201 statewide, top 82%, 700 students, 87% FRL); Northside High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #239 of 292 statewide, top 85%, 2,433 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 64% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Smith School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 388 units permitted in Sebastian County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sebastian County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,811 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.83%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,794
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1015 N 41st St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	2mo	$167,900	$129	79
3300 N O St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,312 (-1%)	2mo	$35,000	$27	78
3613 Chaffee Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,292 (-3%)	3mo	$110,000	$85	68
1301 N 46th St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-4%)	1mo	$171,500	$134	66
510 N 40th St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,376 (+4%)	3mo	$164,900	$120	60
919 Clifton Ct	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,455 (+10%)	4mo	$176,000	$121	59
705 N 41st St	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,432 (+8%)	1mo	$149,900	$105	58
1301 N Greenwood Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,304 (-2%)	2mo	$112,000	$86	56
3810 Macarthur Dr	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,127 (-15%)	2mo	$150,000	$133	54
428 N 35th St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,420 (+7%)	2mo	$110,000	$77	54
635 Clifton Ct	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (-12%)	1mo	$90,000	$77	51
3710 Park Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,510 (+14%)	2mo	$180,000	$119	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-16,899
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-10,516
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72904

• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,038 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $710/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$218
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $89	+0% $53	+5% $18	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $12	+0% $53	+5% $94	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $85	base $53	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1453 N 35th St Fort Smith, AR	2.0	1.0	913	$900	$0.99	22d	1	0.27mi
811 N 41st St Fort Smith, AR	2.0	1.0	1306	$900	$0.69	15d	1	0.36mi
813 N 48th St Fort Smith, AR	2.0	1.0	1170	$800	$0.68	22d	1	0.73mi
3101 Park Ave Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.0	1634	$1,650	$1.01	15d	1	0.85mi
4300 Wynnewood Dr Unit 2 Fort Smith, AR	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	22d	1	0.88mi
501 N May Ave Fort Smith, AR	2.0	1.0	1022	$825	$0.81	22d	1	0.94mi
3014 Presley St Unit FB44 Fort Smith, AR	2.0	1.5	1040	$925	$0.89	22d	1	1.03mi
3014 Presley St Fort Smith, AR	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	782	$925	$1.18	15d	4	1.03mi
2409 N 30th St Unit 1 Fort Smith, AR	2.0	2.5	1258	$950	$0.76	22d	1	1.12mi
4911 Free Ferry Rd Unit Vi Fort Smith, AR	2.0	2.0	1232	$1,150	$0.93	22d	1	1.21mi
5700 Grand Ave Fort Smith, AR	3.0	2.0	1605	$1,500	$0.93	22d	1	1.26mi
3906 S N St Unit 3904 Fort Smith, AR	2.0	1.5	1024	$800	$0.78	22d	1	1.37mi
400 Lincoln Ln Fort Smith, AR	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1425	$1,182	$0.83	15d	16	1.38mi
406 Rockefeller Pl Fort Smith, AR	4.0	4.0	1800	$1,699	$0.94	22d	1	1.39mi
1331 S 46th St Fort Smith, AR	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1075	$1,150	$1.07	15d	6	1.40mi
5801 Kinkead Ave Fort Smith, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$875	$1.09	15d	7	1.40mi
3500 S N St Fort Smith, AR	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	834	$935	$1.12	22d	1	1.41mi
5900 Kinkead Ave Fort Smith, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$895	$1.03	15d	18	1.48mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $125,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $125,000 Pending 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $130,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $130,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $130,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $130,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $130,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-03-18
    listed $130,000 Active
16. 2024-02-07
    soldstatus $132,000
17. 2024-01-31
    soldstatus $132,000 Closed 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bathroom house for sale! This house has a lot to offer from beautiful flooring, fresh paint, new appliances to newer roof. Great starter house, don't miss your opportunity to call this home!

18. 2024-01-26
    status Pending 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bathroom house for sale! This house has a lot to offer from beautiful flooring, fresh paint, new appliances to newer roof. Great starter house, don't miss your opportunity to call this home!

19. 2024-01-21
    price $145,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bathroom house for sale! This house has a lot to offer from beautiful flooring, fresh paint, new appliances to newer roof. Great starter house, don't miss your opportunity to call this home!

20. 2023-12-20
    price $149,500 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bathroom house for sale! This house has a lot to offer from beautiful flooring, fresh paint, new appliances to newer roof. Great starter house, don't miss your opportunity to call this home!

21. 2023-11-08
    listed $158,000 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bathroom house for sale! This house has a lot to offer from beautiful flooring, fresh paint, new appliances to newer roof. Great starter house, don't miss your opportunity to call this home!

22. 2023-09-13
    listed $135,000 Active
23. 2017-12-11
    soldstatus $32,000
24. 2017-12-11
    soldstatus $32,000
25. 2017-08-16
    listed $39,000
26. 2016-05-02
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $710 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$90/yr (+$8/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$710
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$997
• − Management: −$997
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $1,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Smith School District
• NCES district ID: 0506330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $36,066
• Composite: 30.66/100
• National rank: #6183
• State rank: #106 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fort Smith

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #13185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Smith, AR
• County: Sebastian County · 99,312 people
• City population: 94,356
• Metro: Fort Smith, AR-OK
• Population (ZIP): 21,296
• Household income: $41,909
• Rent vs Own: 46.9% rent · 53.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 851.0

Population outlook (Sebastian County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,992 people
• By 2030: 136,620 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 140,832 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 143,301 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 147,964 · +10.4%
• By 2100: 145,848 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 31% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Asian 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 0%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sebastian

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.6% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.6pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+35.5 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+34.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.65%
• Current HPI: 146.2281
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fort Smith, AR-OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $130,000 WRVBOR
• 2024-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-31 Sold (MLS) $132,000 WRVBOR
• 2024-01-26 Pending — WRVBOR
• 2024-01-21 Price Changed $145,000 WRVBOR
• 2023-12-20 Price Changed $149,500 WRVBOR
• 2023-11-08 Listed $158,000 WRVBOR
• 2023-09-13 Listed $135,000 WRVBOR
• 2017-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-11 Sold (MLS) $32,000 WRVBOR
• 2017-08-16 Listed $39,000 WRVBOR
• 2016-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $710 · +310.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.