9553 Auburn St · Detroit, MI
Flood risk 2/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.06%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $473 – $860
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $784 – $1,456
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 99°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Wind risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 5 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +28.7/30.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +7.6/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Livability +3.7/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +1.9/5.0
- Schools +1.3/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$95,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Investor special , very well maintained houses. Buy it by itself or as a bundle with these listings :7661 Penrod, 18651 Warwick , 16559 Mansfield , 18699 Forrer . .BATVAI
Key facts
- 5,227 sq ft lot
- Garage
- Built 1946
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $315 ($4k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
- Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 73/100 on livability (#218 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
- Detroit Public Schools Community District (urban): math 10% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #499 of 540 in MI (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 363 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $1,195/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 4144% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 414 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 6 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $6k; list at $95k implies a 1627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 414 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.26% ✓
- Cap rate
- 10.27%
- Cash-on-cash
- 14.20%
- DSCR
- 1.63
- GRM
- 6.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $48,113
- List price
- $95,000
- Delta
- 97.45%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9634 Evergreen Ave | 0.12mi | 3/1.0 | 912 (+6%) | 3mo | $23,000 | $25 | 81 |
| 11329 Minock St | 0.31mi | 3/1.0 | 816 (-5%) | 4mo | $50,000 | $61 | 75 |
| 9244 Heyden | 0.33mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 801 (-6%) | 0mo | $35,000 | $44 | 68 |
| 9534 Heyden St | 0.23mi | 3/1.0 | 960 (+12%) | 3mo | $100,000 | $104 | 67 |
| 8686 Artesian St | 0.71mi | 3/1.0 | 864 (+1%) | 2mo | $35,000 | $41 | 64 |
| 9109 Stahelin Ave | 0.54mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 836 (-2%) | 3mo | $25,000 | $30 | 64 |
| 9252 Fielding St | 0.42mi | 4/1.0 (+1) | 807 (-6%) | 3mo | $50,000 | $62 | 63 |
| 9221 Grandville Ave | 0.32mi | 3/1.0 | 971 (+13%) | 2mo | $135,000 | $139 | 61 |
| 9012 Pierson St | 0.68mi | 3/1.0 | 910 (+6%) | 0mo | $60,000 | $66 | 58 |
| 9072 Burt Rd | 0.70mi | 3/1.0 | 906 (+6%) | 2mo | $57,000 | $63 | 56 |
| 11700 Auburn St | 0.54mi | 3/1.5 | 964 (+12%) | 3mo | $55,000 | $57 | 49 |
| 11419 Braile St | 0.64mi | 2/1.0 (-1) | 969 (+13%) | 2mo | $45,000 | $46 | 42 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 1.2%
- Equity multiple
- 1.04×
- Total profit
- $1,158
- Equity at exit
- $14,165
- IRR
- 7.6%
- Equity multiple
- 1.50×
- Total profit
- $13,299
- Equity at exit
- $8,214
Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Michigan
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 48228
- Rents YoY
- -2.3%
- Active inventory
- 363
- Price-to-rent
- 6.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,195 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$498
- Tax from tax record
- −$92 /mo · $1,101/yr
- Insurance
- −$40
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$251
- Net cashflow
- $315
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $23,750
- Closing costs
- $2,850
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 40 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19449 W Chicago St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.5 | 950 | $1,500 | $1.58 | 43d | 1 | 0.14mi |
| 20522 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $950 | $0.95 | 43d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 20529 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 9401 Fielding St Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 20541 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 20550 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.41mi |
| 9410 Patton St Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 20545 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 20547 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.42mi |
| 9404 Patton St Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.43mi |
| 20619 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 950 | $1,200 | $1.26 | 43d | 1 | 0.45mi |
| 11652 Fielding St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,386 | $1.39 | 43d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 9090 Stahelin Ave Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 787 | $1,250 | $1.59 | 43d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 19301 Joy Rd Apt 1 Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 750 | $1,100 | $1.47 | 43d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 20921 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $950 | $0.95 | 43d | 1 | 0.65mi |
| 18450 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 1.0–2.0 | 1.0 | 687 | $1,117 | $1.62 | 1d | 15 | 0.66mi |
| 20935 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $900 | $0.90 | 43d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 12084 Vaughan St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,200 | $1.20 | 16d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 20937 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $950 | $0.95 | 43d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 20945 W Chicago Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $950 | $0.95 | 43d | 1 | 0.67mi |
| 9416 Trinity St Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $950 | $0.95 | 43d | 1 | 0.68mi |
| 9059 Burt Rd Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 980 | $1,400 | $1.43 | 43d | 1 | 0.74mi |
| 11704 Greenview Ave Detroit, MI | 4.0 | 1.0 | 1046 | $1,300 | $1.24 | 24d | 1 | 0.79mi |
| 11741 Penrod St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1124 | $1,400 | $1.25 | 16d | 1 | 0.88mi |
| 8283 Vaughan St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1058 | $1,294 | $1.22 | 4d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 8850 Rosemont Ave Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 933 | $1,100 | $1.18 | 17d | 1 | 0.93mi |
| 9108 Archdale St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,300 | $1.30 | 4d | 1 | 1.02mi |
| 8451 Rosemont Ave Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 867 | $1,150 | $1.33 | 43d | 1 | 1.07mi |
| 8270 Trinity St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 806 | $1,528 | $1.90 | 43d | 1 | 1.10mi |
| 20431 Tireman St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1020 | $1,350 | $1.32 | 17d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 7794 Vaughan St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,450 | $1.45 | 16d | 1 | 1.14mi |
| 8262 Rosemont Ave Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 836 | $1,200 | $1.44 | 4d | 1 | 1.18mi |
| 13500 Heyden St Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 850 | $1,200 | $1.41 | 43d | 1 | 1.27mi |
| 7635 Evergreen Ave Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 690 | $1,350 | $1.96 | 43d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 19050 W Davison St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1118 | $1,400 | $1.25 | 43d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 12875 Faust Ave Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 735 | $1,200 | $1.63 | 4d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 12950 Glastonbury Ave Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,400 | $1.40 | 24d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 13514 Stahelin Ave Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1000 | $1,400 | $1.40 | 17d | 1 | 1.35mi |
| 7411 Stout St Detroit, MI | 3.0 | 1.0 | 888 | $1,428 | $1.61 | 12d | 1 | 1.40mi |
| 12867 Westbrook St Detroit, MI | 2.0 | 1.0 | 736 | $1,050 | $1.43 | 43d | 1 | 1.40mi |
Listing history 24 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $95,000 Active 414 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $95,000 Active 413 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $95,000 Active 411 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $95,000 Active 409 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $95,000 Active 408 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $95,000 Active 405 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $95,000 Active 404 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $95,000 Active 403 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $95,000 Active 400 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $95,000 Active 399 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $95,000 Active 397 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $95,000 Active 396 DOM
-
2025-04-30$95,000 Active 171-char remark
Show marketing remark (170 chars)
Investor special , very well maintained houses. Buy it by itself or as a bundle with these listings :7661 Penrod, 18651 Warwick , 16559 Mansfield , 18699 Forrer . .BATVAI
-
2025-04-30$95,000 Active 170-char remark
Show marketing remark (170 chars)
Investor special , very well maintained houses. Buy it by itself or as a bundle with these listings :7661 Penrod, 18651 Warwick , 16559 Mansfield , 18699 Forrer . .BATVAI
-
2025-04-29historical $95,000 170-char remark
Show marketing remark (170 chars)
Investor special , very well maintained houses. Buy it by itself or as a bundle with these listings :7661 Penrod, 18651 Warwick , 16559 Mansfield , 18699 Forrer . .BATVAI
-
2011-12-20historical
-
2011-10-04$650
-
2011-08-30soldstatus $5,500
-
2011-08-30soldstatus $5,500
-
2011-08-30soldstatus $5,500
-
2011-08-24historical
-
2011-04-24$19,900
-
2011-04-24$19,900
-
2011-04-24$19,900
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,101 · $92/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,282 · $107/mo
- Expected delta
- +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 16.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 6% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 2/10 Low
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $14,345
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,321
- − Property taxes
- −$1,101
- − Insurance
- −$475
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,148
- − Management
- −$1,148
- − Depreciation
- −$2,764
- Taxable income
- $2,389
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$573
- After-tax cash flow
- $3,205/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Detroit Public Schools Community District
- NCES district ID
- 2601103
- Math proficiency
- 10% ▼ -2.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 24% ▲ 6.00%
- Median HH income
- $25,815
- Composite
- 13.06/100
- National rank
- #9564
- State rank
- #499 of 540 in MI
Livability — Detroit
- Score
- 73/100
- State rank
- #218
- US rank
- #5427
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Detroit, MI
- County
- Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
- City population
- 572,865
- Metro
- Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- Population (ZIP)
- 50,117
- Household income
- $30,680
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 4144.0
Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,675,273 people
- By 2030
- 1,620,300 · -3.3%
- By 2040
- 1,502,341 · -10.3%
- By 2050
- 1,384,039 · -17.4%
- By 2075
- 1,124,592 · -32.9%
- By 2100
- 881,193 · -47.4%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly Black (71%)
- Race & ethnicity
- Black 71% White 16% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
- Common ancestry
- Arab 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada
- Languages at home
- 82% English-only · Arabic 11% Spanish 5%
Political lean MEDSL · Wayne
- 2024 margin
- Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -160.81%
- Current HPI
- 168.6843
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -2.30%
- Metro
- Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.37%
- F500 in state
- 28
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Automotive Parts | 3 | $48B |
|
||
| Automotive | 2 | $372B |
|
||
| Chemicals | 1 | $45B |
|
||
| Automotive Retail | 1 | $29B |
|
||
| Healthcare / Medical Devices | 1 | $23B |
|
||
| Automotive Technology | 1 | $20B |
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Price history
+377.4% since first listed12 events — show timeline
- 2025-04-30 Listed $95,000 REALCOMP
- 2025-04-30 Listed $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2025-04-29 Coming Soon $95,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2011-12-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2011-10-04 Listed $650 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2011-08-30 Sold (MLS) $5,500 REALCOMP
- 2011-08-30 Sold (MLS) $5,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2011-08-30 Sold (MLS) $5,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2011-08-24 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2011-04-24 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
- 2011-04-24 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
- 2011-04-24 Listed $19,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
Property tax history
-3.3%/yrLatest (2025): $1,101 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…