541 Mulberry St · Thomaston, GA 30286

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,546 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2009

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This will be a great find for someone, 3 bedrooms 2 baths, built in 2009, semi enclosed deck off of master bedroom, deck off of main house completely fenced in back yard for your fur baby. Just looking for some TLC.

Key facts

• Semi enclosed deck
• Deck off main house
• Built 2009

Tags

• SEMI ENCLOSED DECK
• DECK OFF MAIN HOUSE
• COMPLETELY FENCED IN BACK YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, and FHA financing; Special conditions: Pre-foreclosure / Short sale
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking with side/rear entrance
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Propane; High-speed internet
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One level; Resale property; Other structures: kennel/dog run and outbuilding
• Construction: Built in 2009; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Dock; Deck; Porch; Fenced yard with wood privacy fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Dining room / living room combo; Breakfast bar and pantry; Family room; Game room; Mud room; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (mud room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $44 ($522/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Thomaston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#455 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Thomaston-Upson County (rural): math 26% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #123 of 174 in GA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Upson-Lee Primary School (1,049 students, 95% FRL); Upson-Lee Middle School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #271 of 470 statewide, top 60%, 927 students, 83% FRL); Upson-Lee High School (math 18% / reading 17%, grade F, #264 of 424 statewide, top 63%, 1,178 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 60% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 111 units permitted in Upson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Upson County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-23,149
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-16,561
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30286

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,425 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,117/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $44

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,370

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $134	-5% $89	+0% $44	+5% $-2	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $-13	+0% $44	+5% $100	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $84	base $44	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-40

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $160,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $160,000 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $160,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-02-05
    listed $160,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,117 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,117 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,117
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,368
• − Management: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,171
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$521
• After-tax cash flow: $1,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thomaston-Upson County
• NCES district ID: 1305280
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,757
• Composite: 21.44/100
• National rank: #8338
• State rank: #123 of 174 in GA

Livability — Thomaston

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #21482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 24,616
• Population (ZIP): 24,616

Population outlook (Upson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,396 people
• By 2030: 23,158 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 20,522 · -15.9%
• By 2050: 17,828 · -26.9%
• By 2075: 12,216 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 7,779 · -68.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 27% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Upson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 30.0% · R 69.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.5pp toward R · 2008: -28.3pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+29.1 2008: R+28.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.56%
• Current HPI: 316.6771
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Listed $160,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,117 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.