27961 Rainbow Dr · Lake Arrowhead, CA 92352

$465,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 224 Days on market

Built 1965 $215/sqft · 36% below area Est $723k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dream Cabin, Picture-perfect Forest views await you at this authentic Lake Arrowhead home. Located in Arrowhead Woods with LAKE RIGHTS & easy access to the lake and proximity to all the best local spots including restaurants, shops, the village, and much more, this mountain home is the ideal retreat! Nearly 2,160 Sq Ft of living space in this 4-bedroom 3 bath home gives you room to breathe and entertain, blending classic charm with modern convenience. And then there's the big perk! An ADU with private acces (permit unknow), full bedroom and bath, full kitchen, Livingroom makes this a dream cabin to own.

Key facts

• Full kitchen
• Lake rights
• Forest views

Tags

• FOREST VIEWS
• LAKE RIGHTS
• EASY ACCESS TO THE LAKE
• ADU WITH PRIVATE ACCESS
• FULL KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $372k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $372k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.8% in Lake Arrowhead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#965 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, commute B+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Rim Of The World Unified (town): math 13% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #415 of 517 in CA (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 565 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $465k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $371,754 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.09%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $722,867
• List price: $465,000
• Delta: -35.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Terrace Rd	0.17mi	3/2.5	2,066 (-4%)	8mo	$650,000	$315	76
242 Holiday Dr	0.32mi	3/3.5	2,172 (+1%)	5mo	$950,000	$437	74
717 Crest Ests	0.36mi	3/3.0	2,056 (-5%)	0mo	$602,999	$293	71
336 Jasmine Ln	0.37mi	3/2.5	2,132 (-1%)	10mo	$550,000	$258	70
695 Buckingham	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,400 (+11%)	0mo	$485,000	$202	62
197 Rocky Point Rd	0.50mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,126 (-2%)	1mo	$1,300,000	$611	61
217 Crest Cir	0.22mi	3/3.0	1,914 (-11%)	9mo	$750,000	$392	59
231 Crest Cir	0.25mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,920 (-11%)	9mo	$599,000	$312	55
521 Sunderland Ct	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,203 (+2%)	10mo	$760,000	$345	55
402 Terrace Rd	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,918 (-11%)	15mo	$725,000	$378	52
27824 Fern Dell Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,840 (-15%)	12mo	$915,000	$497	51
608 Arrowhead Villa Rd	0.52mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,956 (-9%)	1mo	$280,000	$143	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-68,009
• Equity at exit: $69,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-50,287
• Equity at exit: $40,205

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92352

• Home prices YoY: -22.6%
• Active inventory: 565
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,237/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,568

Max offer price $465,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
400 Cottage Grove Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	4.0	2500	$5,700	$2.28	43d	1	0.10mi
233 Corona Cir Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	2040	$2,900	$1.42	43d	1	0.23mi
641 Virginia Ct Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,300	$1.14	43d	1	0.45mi
664 Ivy Ln Lake Arrowhead, CA	2.0	2.0	1424	$2,600	$1.83	43d	1	0.61mi
359 Kuffel Canyon Rd Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	2.0	1723	$2,999	$1.74	24d	1	0.64mi
855 Lake Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	3.0	3.0	1422	$2,800	$1.97	43d	1	0.65mi
27313 Pinewood Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	2.5	2746	$4,500	$1.64	24d	1	0.95mi
27657 Peninsula Dr Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	2.5	1865	$2,800	$1.50	43d	1	1.03mi
27657 Peninsula Dr Unit 128 Lake Arrowhead, CA	4.0	2.5	1865	$2,800	$1.50	24d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $465,000 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $465,000 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $465,000 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,000 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,000 Active 219 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $465,000 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $465,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $465,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $465,000 Active 213 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $465,000 Active 210 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $465,000 Active 209 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $465,000 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $465,000 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $465,000 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $465,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Dream Cabin, Picture-perfect Forest views await you at this authentic Lake Arrowhead home. Located in Arrowhead Woods with LAKE RIGHTS & easy access to the lake and proximity to all the best local spots including restaurants, shops, the village, and much more, this mountain home is the ideal retreat! Nearly 2,160 Sq Ft of living space in this 4-bedroom 3 bath home gives you room to breathe and entertain, blending classic charm with modern convenience. And then there's the big perk! An ADU with private acces (permit unknow), full bedroom and bath, full kitchen, Livingroom makes this a dream cabin to own.

16. 2026-01-29
    price $475,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Dream Cabin, Picture-perfect Forest views await you at this authentic Lake Arrowhead home. Located in Arrowhead Woods with LAKE RIGHTS & easy access to the lake and proximity to all the best local spots including restaurants, shops, the village, and much more, this mountain home is the ideal retreat! Nearly 2,160 Sq Ft of living space in this 4-bedroom 3 bath home gives you room to breathe and entertain, blending classic charm with modern convenience. And then there's the big perk! An ADU with private acces (permit unknow), full bedroom and bath, full kitchen, Livingroom makes this a dream cabin to own.

17. 2026-01-09
    price $485,000 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Dream Cabin, Picture-perfect Forest views await you at this authentic Lake Arrowhead home. Located in Arrowhead Woods with LAKE RIGHTS & easy access to the lake and proximity to all the best local spots including restaurants, shops, the village, and much more, this mountain home is the ideal retreat! Nearly 2,160 Sq Ft of living space in this 4-bedroom 3 bath home gives you room to breathe and entertain, blending classic charm with modern convenience. And then there's the big perk! An ADU with private acces (permit unknow), full bedroom and bath, full kitchen, Livingroom makes this a dream cabin to own.

18. 2025-11-06
    listed $495,000 Active 616-char remark

    Show marketing remark (616 chars)

    Dream Cabin, Picture-perfect Forest views await you at this authentic Lake Arrowhead home. Located in Arrowhead Woods with LAKE RIGHTS & easy access to the lake and proximity to all the best local spots including restaurants, shops, the village, and much more, this mountain home is the ideal retreat! Nearly 2,160 Sq Ft of living space in this 4-bedroom 3 bath home gives you room to breathe and entertain, blending classic charm with modern convenience. And then there's the big perk! An ADU with private acces (permit unknow), full bedroom and bath, full kitchen, Livingroom makes this a dream cabin to own.

19. 2025-04-22
    historical
20. 2025-04-03
    price $525,000
21. 2025-01-29
    price $549,900
22. 2024-10-21
    listed $575,000 Active
23. 2017-07-19
    soldstatus $150,000
24. 2002-01-07
    soldstatus $104,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,237 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,534 · $294/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,297/yr (+$108/mo · 58.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$2,237
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,569
• − Management: −$3,569
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$6,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $3,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rim Of The World Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632610
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $55,860
• Composite: 21.29/100
• National rank: #8389
• State rank: #415 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lake Arrowhead

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #965
• US rank: #24524

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment B Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arrowhead, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 6,246
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,246
• Household income: $105,753
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 109.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 5% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.32%
• Current HPI: 271.3789
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+347.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $465,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $475,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $485,000 SDMLS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $495,000 SDMLS
• 2025-04-22 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $525,000 SDMLS
• 2025-01-29 Price Changed $549,900 SDMLS
• 2024-10-21 Listed $575,000 SDMLS
• 2017-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,237 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.