4361 Miller Rd · Midlothian, TX 76065

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1984 0.50 ac lot $167/sqft · at area comps Est $145k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

***MOTIVATED SELLER*** ***SEND ALL OFFERS!*** OWNER FINACE AVAILABLE WITH 60K DOWN, 10% INTEREST FOR 10 YEARS. Huge Opportunity In Highly Desired Midlothian ISD! Rare Double Lot Offering Endless Potential For Investors, Builders, Or Buyers Looking To Create Their Dream Setup. Property Features A Mobile Home That Needs TLC And Vision, Making It A Prime Candidate For Renovation, Replacement, Or New Construction. Spacious Lot Size Provides Flexibility For Expansion, Additional Structures, Or Future Development (Buyer To Verify All Possibilities). Seller Has No Knowledge Of The Condition Of The Septic System Or Mobile Home. Property Is Being Sold As-Is Where-Is. Buyer To Complete All Due Diligence Prior To Purchase. Incredible Chance To Secure Land And Opportunity In A Rapidly Growing Area!

Key facts

• Spacious lot size
• Mobile home
• Double lot

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• MOBILE HOME
• SPACIOUS LOT SIZE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $920 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 3.5% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Midlothian ISD (suburban): math 53% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #94 of 826 in TX (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 1112 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,703 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.18%
• DSCR: 2.25
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,673
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -3.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $38,942
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $122,110
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76065

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 1112
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $952/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $920

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2991 Lakeside Dr Midlothian, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,016	$2.03	43d	6	1.18mi
2750 Gathering Pl Midlothian, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1372	$2,404	$1.75	2d	29	1.38mi
2381 W Main St Midlothian, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	894	$2,114	$2.36	2d	52	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $139,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $149,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $149,900 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    ***MOTIVATED SELLER*** ***SEND ALL OFFERS!*** OWNER FINACE AVAILABLE WITH 60K DOWN, 10% INTEREST FOR 10 YEARS. Huge Opportunity In Highly Desired Midlothian ISD! Rare Double Lot Offering Endless Potential For Investors, Builders, Or Buyers Looking To Create Their Dream Setup. Property Features A Mobile Home That Needs TLC And Vision, Making It A Prime Candidate For Renovation, Replacement, Or New Construction. Spacious Lot Size Provides Flexibility For Expansion, Additional Structures, Or Future Development (Buyer To Verify All Possibilities). Seller Has No Knowledge Of The Condition Of The Septic System Or Mobile Home. Property Is Being Sold As-Is Where-Is. Buyer To Complete All Due Diligence Prior To Purchase. Incredible Chance To Secure Land And Opportunity In A Rapidly Growing Area!

15. 2026-04-21
    listed $160,000 Active 797-char remark

    Show marketing remark (797 chars)

    ***MOTIVATED SELLER*** ***SEND ALL OFFERS!*** OWNER FINACE AVAILABLE WITH 60K DOWN, 10% INTEREST FOR 10 YEARS. Huge Opportunity In Highly Desired Midlothian ISD! Rare Double Lot Offering Endless Potential For Investors, Builders, Or Buyers Looking To Create Their Dream Setup. Property Features A Mobile Home That Needs TLC And Vision, Making It A Prime Candidate For Renovation, Replacement, Or New Construction. Spacious Lot Size Provides Flexibility For Expansion, Additional Structures, Or Future Development (Buyer To Verify All Possibilities). Seller Has No Knowledge Of The Condition Of The Septic System Or Mobile Home. Property Is Being Sold As-Is Where-Is. Buyer To Complete All Due Diligence Prior To Purchase. Incredible Chance To Secure Land And Opportunity In A Rapidly Growing Area!

16. 2026-03-03
    soldstatus
17. 2024-07-17
    price $89,900
18. 2024-07-05
    listed $95,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,560 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,608/yr (+$134/mo · 168.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$952
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,177
• − Management: −$2,177
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $9,296
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,231
• After-tax cash flow: $8,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midlothian ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830600
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $85,068
• Composite: 48.22/100
• National rank: #2165
• State rank: #94 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ellis County · 199,237 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,438
• Household income: $127,756
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 811.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.85%
• Current HPI: 243.5953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.32%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+57.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-17 Price Changed $89,900 NTREIS
• 2024-07-05 Listed $95,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $952 · +19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.