733 Stock Farm Road Rd · Lake, PA 18436

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 213 Days on market

Built 2001 2.45 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very clean 2 bedroom 1 bath Mobile home with an 8 x 10 enclosed addition off the back on a 2.45 acre lot in a great location just about a mile right off of 191 in Lake Ariel. A wooded lot with some great privacy and a few outdoor storage sheds and on a nice level corner lot.

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Level corner lot
• Enclosed addition

Tags

• ENCLOSED ADDITION
• WOODED LOT
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHEDS
• LEVEL CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (2.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 337 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $154,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.73%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $110,171
• Equity at exit: $157,654

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.38×
• Total profit: $312,661
• Equity at exit: $339,987

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,709 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,509/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 205 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 204 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 203 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 202 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 198 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 195 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 194 DOM
16. 2026-04-18
    status Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Very clean 2 bedroom 1 bath Mobile home with an 8 x 10 enclosed addition off the back on a 2.45 acre lot in a great location just about a mile right off of 191 in Lake Ariel. A wooded lot with some great privacy and a few outdoor storage sheds and on a nice level corner lot.

17. 2026-04-16
    status Pending 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Very clean 2 bedroom 1 bath Mobile home with an 8 x 10 enclosed addition off the back on a 2.45 acre lot in a great location just about a mile right off of 191 in Lake Ariel. A wooded lot with some great privacy and a few outdoor storage sheds and on a nice level corner lot.

18. 2025-10-31
    listed $175,000 Active 275-char remark

    Show marketing remark (275 chars)

    Very clean 2 bedroom 1 bath Mobile home with an 8 x 10 enclosed addition off the back on a 2.45 acre lot in a great location just about a mile right off of 191 in Lake Ariel. A wooded lot with some great privacy and a few outdoor storage sheds and on a nice level corner lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,509 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,137 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$628/yr (+$52/mo · 41.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,509
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,641
• − Management: −$1,641
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$50
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12
• After-tax cash flow: $2,818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-04-16 Pending — PWMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $175,000 PWMLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,509 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.