4118 THATCH PALM CT. Plan · Oviedo, FL 32765

$162,989

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 953 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a serene cul-de-sac, this stunning new Palm Harbor 'Levy' home offers 2 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a den! Enjoy a beautiful front porch that welcomes you inside. The kitchen is perfect for cooking and entertaining. The primary bath features a large bench shower. Plus, a 1-year home warranty is included for peace of mind. Don't miss out-visit the Sales Office or call the Sales Team to schedule a tour of this incredible home!

Key facts

• Listed 953 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $162,989

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan; Active listing
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,248
• Exterior features: Address: 4118 THATCH PALM CT., Oviedo, FL 32765

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $413 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.0% in Oviedo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#112 in FL, #1,732 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities C-, cost of living D, commute F.
• Seminole (suburban): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #13 of 73 in FL (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 446 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,979 units permitted in Seminole County in 2024 (1,191 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Seminole County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,430 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.85%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $21,216
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3630 LA Paz Cir	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	7mo	$16,000	$13	80
4071 Madre Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	2mo	$75,000	$56	80
4030 Sugar Palm Ter	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,289 (+3%)	6mo	$22,500	$17	78
303 Del Ray Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	6mo	$15,500	$14	67
3685 Coconut Palm Cir	0.58mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	3mo	$120,000	$89	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,470
• Equity at exit: $24,302

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,354
• Equity at exit: $14,092

Cash invested: $45,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32765

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 446
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,948 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$204 /mo · $2,445/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,426

Max offer price $162,989

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $469	+0% $413	+5% $356	+10% $300
Rent	-10% $259	-5% $336	+0% $413	+5% $490	+10% $567
Rate	-1.0pp $495	-0.5pp $454	base $413	+0.5pp $371	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,747
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3431 Harrow Ln Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.0	1136	$2,145	$1.89	24d	1	0.21mi
3420 Harrow Ln Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.5	1136	$1,995	$1.76	24d	1	0.22mi
116 Reserve Cir #204 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,000	$1.03	24d	1	0.54mi
144 Reserve Cir #100 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	1098	$1,599	$1.46	15d	1	0.62mi
141 Reserve Cir #213 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,700	$1.73	11d	1	0.65mi
141 Reserve Cir #213 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,700	$1.73	5d	1	0.65mi
209 Reserve Cir Unit 101 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$2,000	$2.05	24d	1	0.65mi
149 Reserve Cir #201 Oviedo, FL	2.0	2.0	985	$1,499	$1.52	11d	1	0.66mi
505 Walnut Grove Pl Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,150	$1.58	24d	1	0.68mi
2980 Grandeville Cir Oviedo, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1365	$2,042	$1.50	3d	31	0.69mi
2590 Greenhill Way Oviedo, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,020	$1.90	2d	18	0.81mi
2352 Sunny View Dr Oviedo, FL	2.0	1.0	1184	$1,950	$1.65	3d	1	1.20mi
2352 Sunny View Dr Oviedo, FL	2.0	1.0	1184	$2,000	$1.69	4d	1	1.20mi
3812 Silverbell Loop Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,450	$1.66	5d	1	1.29mi
4647 Lacebark Trl Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$950	$0.64	24d	1	1.35mi
1029 Beckstrom Dr Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,465	$1.70	4d	1	1.38mi
3426 Caruso Pl Oviedo, FL	3.0	3.5	1480	$2,200	$1.49	24d	1	1.40mi
4338 Aristocrat Pt Oviedo, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,200	$1.49	5d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $162,989 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $162,989 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $162,989 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $162,989 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $162,989 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $162,989 Active 944 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $162,989 Active 943 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $162,989 Active 942 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $162,989 Active 939 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $162,989 Active 938 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $162,989 Active 937 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $162,989 Active 936 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $162,989 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,379
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,130
• − Property taxes: −$2,445
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,870
• − Management: −$1,870
• − Depreciation: −$4,741
• Taxable income: $2,507
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$602
• After-tax cash flow: $4,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seminole
• NCES district ID: 1201710
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,478
• Composite: 51.05/100
• National rank: #1769
• State rank: #13 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oviedo

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #1732

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Seminole County · 436,154 people
• City population: 80,698
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 64,477
• Household income: $102,167
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2059.0

Population outlook (Seminole County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 515,494 people
• By 2030: 545,713 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 598,068 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 640,663 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 724,461 · +40.5%
• By 2100: 755,530 · +46.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 15% Black 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Seminole

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.8pp no change · 2008: -2.8pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.8 2016: R+1.6 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+2.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.94%
• Current HPI: 315.5484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B