11411 N 91st Ave #242 · Peoria, AZ 85345

$23,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 970 sqft · Manufactured · 75 Days on market

Built 1976 $24/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

On Leased Land. Beautiful and well kept manufactured home in the peaceful adult restricted community of Casa Del Sol West. HVAC system and been replaced entirely giving you peace of mind! Carpets were recently replaced. Beautiful turn key home ready for new owners!

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $23k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $23k).
• Recommended offer: $22k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 63.2% vs local median 3.3% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#14 in AZ, #3,603 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A, employment A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D, health & safety F.
• Peoria Unified School District (4237) (suburban): math 36% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #64 of 249 in AZ (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 333 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $159 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $690 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($22k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $21,620 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 63.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 203.28%
• DSCR: 10.04
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $60,111
• List price: $23,000
• Delta: -61.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11411 N 91st Ave #215	0.17mi	2/2.0	966 (-0%)	4mo	$12,000	$12	84
11411 N 91st Ave #131	0.17mi	2/2.0	980 (+1%)	4mo	$46,000	$47	83
11000 N 91st Ave #84	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	980 (+1%)	4mo	$60,000	$61	82
11411 N 91st Ave #235	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,024 (+6%)	6mo	$85,000	$83	78
10951 N 91st Ave #223	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,024 (+6%)	0mo	$69,900	$68	77
10951 N 91st Ave #216	0.32mi	2/2.0	980 (+1%)	6mo	$82,000	$84	74
11411 N 91st Ave #157	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+9%)	1mo	$20,000	$19	72
10951 N 91st Ave #177	0.32mi	2/1.5	924 (-5%)	6mo	$37,500	$41	70
10951 N 91st Ave #175	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,054 (+9%)	4mo	$74,200	$70	64
10810 N 91st Ave #45	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	896 (-8%)	3mo	$80,000	$89	60
10951 N 91st Ave #6	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (+9%)	7mo	$85,000	$80	56
11275 N 99th Ave #10	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,066 (+10%)	7mo	$250,000	$235	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.64×
• Total profit: $62,077
• Equity at exit: $3,429

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.05×
• Total profit: $129,142
• Equity at exit: $1,989

Cash invested: $6,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85345

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$121
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$29 /mo · $345/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $1,091

Break-even live

Break-even rent $201

Max offer price $23,000

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,107	-5% $1,099	+0% $1,091	+5% $1,083	+10% $1,075
Rent	-10% $966	-5% $1,028	+0% $1,091	+5% $1,153	+10% $1,216
Rate	-1.0pp $1,103	-0.5pp $1,097	base $1,091	+0.5pp $1,085	+1.0pp $1,079

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,750
• Closing costs: $690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11411 N 91st Ave Unit 213 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	858	$1,399	$1.63	25d	1	0.17mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	25d	1	0.45mi
8821 W Sahuaro Dr Peoria, AZ	3.0	2.0	1074	$1,595	$1.49	3d	1	0.45mi
8757 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	564	$1,539	$2.73	4d	14	0.62mi
8650 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,492	$1.78	3d	19	0.68mi
10860 N 85th Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,225	$1.57	44d	1	0.73mi
10860 N 85th Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	630	$1,350	$2.14	4d	1	0.73mi
10860 N 85th Ave Unit 87 Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	780	$1,149	$1.47	6d	1	0.73mi
8560 W Peoria Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.0	888	$1,450	$1.63	2d	8	0.74mi
10701 N 99th Ave Unit 230 Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	784	$1,099	$1.40	21d	1	0.84mi
12751 N Plaza Del Rio Blvd Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,890	$1.88	2d	10	0.98mi
11429 N 83rd Ave #2 Peoria, AZ	1.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	25d	1	1.02mi
10104 N 96th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,750	$1.63	25d	1	1.03mi
10110 N 97th Dr Unit A Peoria, AZ	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,500	$1.46	25d	1	1.11mi
10822 N Balboa Dr Sun City, AZ	2.0	1.0	942	$3,000	$3.18	25d	1	1.16mi
8280 W Madison St Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	44d	1	1.18mi
13310 N Plaza del Rio Blvd Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,556	$1.59	2d	13	1.35mi
8940 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	2.0	2.0	897	$1,400	$1.56	17d	1	1.38mi
8165 W Whitney Dr Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$2,223	$2.44	2d	229	1.41mi
8885 W Thunderbird Rd Peoria, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$1,725	$1.96	2d	26	1.47mi
9680 W Olive Ave Peoria, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,540	$1.81	2d	9	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $23,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $23,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $23,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $23,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $23,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $25,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $25,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-04-07
    listed $27,000 Active 267-char remark

    Show marketing remark (267 chars)

    On Leased Land. Beautiful and well kept manufactured home in the peaceful adult restricted community of Casa Del Sol West. HVAC system and been replaced entirely giving you peace of mind! Carpets were recently replaced. Beautiful turn key home ready for new owners!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,288
• − Property taxes: −$345
• − Insurance: −$115
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − Depreciation: −$669
• Taxable income: $13,530
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,247
• After-tax cash flow: $9,844/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria Unified School District (4237)
• NCES district ID: 0406250
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $60,171
• Composite: 34.62/100
• National rank: #5152
• State rank: #64 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #14
• US rank: #3603

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A Cost of living C- Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 206,687
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 60,918
• Household income: $67,380
• Rent vs Own: 33.5% rent · 66.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1879.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.77%
• Current HPI: 328.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.62%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $27,000 ARMLS