25812 Hedgerow Dr · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$229,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,220 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,279 sqft lot $103/sqft · 19% below area Est $282k · 19% under $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ready for December move-in. Presenting the Lincoln plan by Centex Homes, w/ 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths, this home is perfect for your growing needs. An open-concept layout connects the main living areas. The spacious kitchen w/ elegant white cabinets soft closed doors & drawers provides ample storage space. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area offers a place for family meals opening into the gathering room. A downstairs guest suite finishes off the first floor. The second-floor primary suite features a large bedroom, a walk-in closet, & a well-appointed en-suite bathroom. Spacious secondary bedrooms open off a game room. A covered patio w/ a finished yard including a sprinkler system completes the package! Zoned to highly rated Tomball ISD. Our amenities include a community park, walking trails, & recreational areas. Enjoy easy access to highways, shopping, dining, & excellent schools. Don't miss the chance to make it your dream home. Schedule a tour today!

Key facts

• 5,279 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2023

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Inframark Management/Decker Farms; Annual association fee of $650; Community features include curbs and gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway parking; Additional parking available
• Security: Owned security system; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces south; Built in 2023; Slab foundation
• Construction: Cement siding and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision setting; Concrete road access; Security system (owned); Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (approx. 14x15); Additional bedroom on first level (approx. 10x10); Two bedrooms on second level (approx. 14x12 and 10x9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open concept family room; Dining room; Game room; Washer hookup and dryer hookups for both electric and gas; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Carpet and tile flooring; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-406 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (15.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Grand Lakes J H (969 students, 29% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,617 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.61%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $281,731
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -18.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26234 Arrowleaf Dr	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-0%)	1mo	$264,330	$119	92
26398 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.12mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-0%)	1mo	$289,710	$131	92
26279 Arrowleaf Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-0%)	1mo	$284,200	$128	91
26303 Arrowleaf Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,218 (-0%)	1mo	$289,710	$131	89
26379 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,350 (+6%)	3mo	$305,470	$130	84
26387 Cedar Sedge Dr	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,036 (-8%)	1mo	$264,840	$130	81
26282 Arrowleaf Dr	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,036 (-8%)	1mo	$259,050	$127	78
26266 Arrowleaf Dr	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,036 (-8%)	4mo	$297,660	$146	77
25717 Merino Ct	0.19mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,285 (+3%)	4mo	$305,990	$134	76
26017 Hampshire Dr	0.18mi	4/3.0	2,025 (-9%)	4mo	$278,990	$138	74
26255 Arrowleaf Dr	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,536 (+14%)	2mo	$274,820	$108	68
27111 Broadford	0.61mi	4/2.5	2,511 (+13%)	0mo	$630,000	$251	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-62,610
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.35×
• Total profit: $-86,293
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$803 /mo · $9,631/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-406

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,725

Max offer price $192,617

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-277	-5% $-342	+0% $-406	+5% $-471	+10% $-536
Rent	-10% $-581	-5% $-494	+0% $-406	+5% $-319	+10% $-232
Rate	-1.0pp $-291	-0.5pp $-348	base $-406	+0.5pp $-466	+1.0pp $-526

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $229,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $229,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $240,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    status Pending 968-char remark
17. 2026-05-06
    listed $240,000 Active 968-char remark
18. 2023-12-13
    soldstatus Sold 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Ready for December move-in. Presenting the Lincoln plan by Centex Homes, w/ 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths, this home is perfect for your growing needs. An open-concept layout connects the main living areas. The spacious kitchen w/ elegant white cabinets soft closed doors & drawers provides ample storage space. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area offers a place for family meals opening into the gathering room. A downstairs guest suite finishes off the first floor. The second-floor primary suite features a large bedroom, a walk-in closet, & a well-appointed en-suite bathroom. Spacious secondary bedrooms open off a game room. A covered patio w/ a finished yard including a sprinkler system completes the package! Zoned to highly rated Tomball ISD. Our amenities include a community park, walking trails, & recreational areas. Enjoy easy access to highways, shopping, dining, & excellent schools. Don't miss the chance to make it your dream home. Schedule a tour today!

19. 2023-10-05
    status Pending 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Ready for December move-in. Presenting the Lincoln plan by Centex Homes, w/ 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths, this home is perfect for your growing needs. An open-concept layout connects the main living areas. The spacious kitchen w/ elegant white cabinets soft closed doors & drawers provides ample storage space. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area offers a place for family meals opening into the gathering room. A downstairs guest suite finishes off the first floor. The second-floor primary suite features a large bedroom, a walk-in closet, & a well-appointed en-suite bathroom. Spacious secondary bedrooms open off a game room. A covered patio w/ a finished yard including a sprinkler system completes the package! Zoned to highly rated Tomball ISD. Our amenities include a community park, walking trails, & recreational areas. Enjoy easy access to highways, shopping, dining, & excellent schools. Don't miss the chance to make it your dream home. Schedule a tour today!

20. 2023-09-22
    price $314,070 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Ready for December move-in. Presenting the Lincoln plan by Centex Homes, w/ 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths, this home is perfect for your growing needs. An open-concept layout connects the main living areas. The spacious kitchen w/ elegant white cabinets soft closed doors & drawers provides ample storage space. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area offers a place for family meals opening into the gathering room. A downstairs guest suite finishes off the first floor. The second-floor primary suite features a large bedroom, a walk-in closet, & a well-appointed en-suite bathroom. Spacious secondary bedrooms open off a game room. A covered patio w/ a finished yard including a sprinkler system completes the package! Zoned to highly rated Tomball ISD. Our amenities include a community park, walking trails, & recreational areas. Enjoy easy access to highways, shopping, dining, & excellent schools. Don't miss the chance to make it your dream home. Schedule a tour today!

21. 2023-09-06
    listed $315,580 Active 1001-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1001 chars)

    Ready for December move-in. Presenting the Lincoln plan by Centex Homes, w/ 4 bedrooms & 3 full baths, this home is perfect for your growing needs. An open-concept layout connects the main living areas. The spacious kitchen w/ elegant white cabinets soft closed doors & drawers provides ample storage space. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining area offers a place for family meals opening into the gathering room. A downstairs guest suite finishes off the first floor. The second-floor primary suite features a large bedroom, a walk-in closet, & a well-appointed en-suite bathroom. Spacious secondary bedrooms open off a game room. A covered patio w/ a finished yard including a sprinkler system completes the package! Zoned to highly rated Tomball ISD. Our amenities include a community park, walking trails, & recreational areas. Enjoy easy access to highways, shopping, dining, & excellent schools. Don't miss the chance to make it your dream home. Schedule a tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,631 · $803/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,631 · $803/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$9,631
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,122
• − Management: −$2,122
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$8,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,071
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This spacious four-bedroom, three-bathroom home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It is ready for cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves the home's appearance and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.
• Both Upgrading the windows to energy-efficient ones — Energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves the home's appearance and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Upgrading the windows to energy-efficient ones — Energy-efficient windows can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-27.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2023-12-13 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2023-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-22 Price Changed $314,070 HARMLS
• 2023-09-06 Listed $315,580 HARMLS

Property tax history

+320.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,631 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.