9229 Ponderosa Dr N · Semmes, AL 36575

$219,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,431 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1980 0.53 ac lot Est $219k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Qualifies for USDA financing with $0 down, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home is the perfect starter home! The brick façade and metal roof offer durability and low-maintenance living. Situated on over half an acre, the spacious lot provides both privacy and room to enjoy the outdoors. As you enter, you’re welcomed into a warm and inviting living area featuring hardwood floors and smooth ceilings that flow into the kitchen. The kitchen offers tile flooring, a stylish backsplash, and freshly painted bright cabinets. Just off the kitchen, the updated laundry space features high ceilings, plenty of room, and a massive storage/pantry area, with access to the backyard. The three bedrooms

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Stylish backsplash
• Spacious lot

Tags

• BRICK FAÇADE
• METAL ROOF
• SPACIOUS LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• TILE FLOORING
• STYLISH BACKSPLASH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity available (110 volts); Water available; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; Brick 4-sides construction; Metal roof; Built in 1980; Pillar/post/pier foundation; View present
• Construction: Brick 4-sides; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built in 1980
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Storage shed(s); Above-ground pool; Back yard fencing (fenced)

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Other; Eat-in kitchen with white cabinets; No fireplace; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Allentown Elementary School (math 31% / reading 59%, grade D-, #169 of 627 statewide, top 27%, 776 students, 53% FRL); Semmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 35%, grade F, #185 of 257 statewide, top 73%, 1,318 students, 68% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,309 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,943
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1850 Wagon Wheel Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-4%)	3mo	$210,000	$153	80
9380 Sagebrush Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,419 (-1%)	0mo	$167,500	$118	79
9365 Chisholm Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+2%)	1mo	$220,000	$152	75
1837 Sandy Creek Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,313 (-8%)	0mo	$227,500	$173	74
1820 Wagon Wheel Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,341 (-6%)	3mo	$190,000	$142	74
9395 Settlers Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+3%)	4mo	$232,000	$158	61
1835 Corral Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-15%)	2mo	$205,000	$168	58
2070 Sky Vista Dr W	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,487 (+4%)	1mo	$185,000	$124	55
1679 Wagon Wheel Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,227 (-14%)	2mo	$195,000	$159	54
9736 Sky Vista Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+7%)	0mo	$259,000	$170	50
1497 Champion Cv	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,588 (+11%)	5mo	$198,000	$125	40
8880 Howells Ln W	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-15%)	1mo	$99,000	$81	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-28,562
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-16,074
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36575

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,783 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $613/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,640

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $237	-5% $175	+0% $113	+5% $51	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-28	-5% $42	+0% $113	+5% $183	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $223	-0.5pp $169	base $113	+0.5pp $56	+1.0pp $-2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,900 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,900 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,900 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,900 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $219,900 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $219,900 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $219,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,900 Active 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,900 Active 2 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    remarks 686-char remark
18. 2026-05-30
    listed $219,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $613 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 47.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,397
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$613
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,712
• − Management: −$1,712
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$2,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$589
• After-tax cash flow: $1,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,444

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.58%
• Current HPI: 217.5112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $219,900 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $613 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.