15 Conestoga Mnr · Brownstown, PA 17540

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1979 $36/sqft · 60% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the Conestoga Manor Village within the Conestoga Valley School District! Nestled in a park-like setting alongside Cocalico Creek, this community offers scenic farmland views and a relaxing atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with nearby fishing opportunities and open green space right at your doorstep. Conestoga Manor Village is an all-ages, pet-friendly community, making it a welcoming place for a variety of lifestyles. Conveniently situated along Route 272 between Oregon Dairy and Brownstown, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials, as well as easy connections to major routes including Route 222 for commuting. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful surroundings with unbeatable convenience! Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Open green space
• Outdoor living
• Parking

Tags

• SCENIC FARMLAND VIEWS
• OUTDOOR LIVING
• OPEN GREEN SPACE
• QUICK ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• PEACEFUL SURROUNDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#653 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Conestoga Valley SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #156 of 539 in PA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 44.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 137.85%
• DSCR: 7.13
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,581
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -50.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $66,038
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.29×
• Total profit: $149,859
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17540

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,692 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $149/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $1,126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $267

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $35,000 Pending 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $35,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $35,000 Active 68 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   price $35,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $38,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-05-09
    price $38,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Come check out this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the Conestoga Manor Village within the Conestoga Valley School District! Nestled in a park-like setting alongside Cocalico Creek, this community offers scenic farmland views and a relaxing atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with nearby fishing opportunities and open green space right at your doorstep. Conestoga Manor Village is an all-ages, pet-friendly community, making it a welcoming place for a variety of lifestyles. Conveniently situated along Route 272 between Oregon Dairy and Brownstown, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials, as well as easy connections to major routes including Route 222 for commuting. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful surroundings with unbeatable convenience! Schedule your showing today.

14. 2026-05-02
    price $45,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Come check out this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the Conestoga Manor Village within the Conestoga Valley School District! Nestled in a park-like setting alongside Cocalico Creek, this community offers scenic farmland views and a relaxing atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with nearby fishing opportunities and open green space right at your doorstep. Conestoga Manor Village is an all-ages, pet-friendly community, making it a welcoming place for a variety of lifestyles. Conveniently situated along Route 272 between Oregon Dairy and Brownstown, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials, as well as easy connections to major routes including Route 222 for commuting. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful surroundings with unbeatable convenience! Schedule your showing today.

15. 2026-04-23
    price $47,500 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Come check out this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the Conestoga Manor Village within the Conestoga Valley School District! Nestled in a park-like setting alongside Cocalico Creek, this community offers scenic farmland views and a relaxing atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with nearby fishing opportunities and open green space right at your doorstep. Conestoga Manor Village is an all-ages, pet-friendly community, making it a welcoming place for a variety of lifestyles. Conveniently situated along Route 272 between Oregon Dairy and Brownstown, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials, as well as easy connections to major routes including Route 222 for commuting. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful surroundings with unbeatable convenience! Schedule your showing today.

16. 2026-03-27
    listed $50,000 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    Come check out this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the Conestoga Manor Village within the Conestoga Valley School District! Nestled in a park-like setting alongside Cocalico Creek, this community offers scenic farmland views and a relaxing atmosphere. Enjoy outdoor living with nearby fishing opportunities and open green space right at your doorstep. Conestoga Manor Village is an all-ages, pet-friendly community, making it a welcoming place for a variety of lifestyles. Conveniently situated along Route 272 between Oregon Dairy and Brownstown, you’ll have quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials, as well as easy connections to major routes including Route 222 for commuting. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy peaceful surroundings with unbeatable convenience! Schedule your showing today.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $149 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $351 · $29/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 135.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$149
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $13,748
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,300
• After-tax cash flow: $10,210/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conestoga Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4206480
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $56,234
• Composite: 44.15/100
• National rank: #2861
• State rank: #156 of 539 in PA

Livability — Brownstown

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #653
• US rank: #6659

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownstown, PA
• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• City population: 1,027
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 10,728
• Household income: $91,895
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 159.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scandinavian 3% Italian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · German/W. Germanic 10% Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.94%
• Current HPI: 260.303
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-24.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $38,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $47,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $50,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $149 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.