44 Sarita Dr · Brownsville, TX 78521

$189,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2009 0.61 ac lot $122/sqft · 14% above area Est $167k · 14% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION HUGE PIECE OF LAND, NICE HOME NEEDS TLC. Located less than 30 minutes from SpaceX.

Key facts

• 0.61 acre lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 135 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southmost El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 339 students, 92% FRL); Lucio Middle (math 12% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 698 students, 96% FRL); Lopez Early College H S (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 1,831 students, 95% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 366 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,090 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,116
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: 13.63%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2344 W Dorcas Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,443 (-8%)	1mo	$245,000	$170	52
2413 Calle Moreno	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,360 (-13%)	3mo	$245,000	$180	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-13,519
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $38,745
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78521

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 366
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,132/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,480

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $242	-5% $189	+0% $135	+5% $81	+10% $27
Rent	-10% $4	-5% $70	+0% $135	+5% $200	+10% $265
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $183	base $135	+0.5pp $86	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5824 Southmost Rd Unit 132 Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$995	$0.90	45d	1	0.32mi
4995 Alexa Rd Unit B Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1063	$1,750	$1.65	45d	1	0.60mi
4717 Morningside Rd Brownsville, TX	5.0	2.0	1508	$1,500	$0.99	23d	1	0.78mi
1929 Taxco Dr Brownsville, TX	5.0	2.0	1680	$1,700	$1.01	15d	1	0.88mi
1570 Los Alamos St Unit A Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,700	$1.33	15d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 124 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 123 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 122 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-03-11
    price $189,900 97-char remark

    Show marketing remark (97 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION HUGE PIECE OF LAND, NICE HOME NEEDS TLC. Located less than 30 minutes from SpaceX.

19. 2026-02-07
    listed $199,000 Active 97-char remark

    Show marketing remark (97 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION HUGE PIECE OF LAND, NICE HOME NEEDS TLC. Located less than 30 minutes from SpaceX.

20. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus
21. 2018-09-12
    soldstatus
22. 2018-09-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,132 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,475 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,343/yr (+$195/mo · 207.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,132
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,585
• − Management: −$1,585
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$385
• After-tax cash flow: $2,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 87,380
• Household income: $44,509
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2682.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 45% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 88%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.45%
• Current HPI: 232.1072
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.19%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $189,900 RGVMLS
• 2026-02-07 Listed $199,000 RGVMLS
• 2022-03-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+19.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,132 · -65.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.