2912 South Ave · West Orange, TX 77630

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,212 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2006 8,640 sqft lot Est $116k · 29% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bath charmer in Orange! From the moment you arrive, the welcoming front porch sets the tone for comfort. Inside, you’ll find fresh updates throughout with light, inviting living spaces designed for everyday living. The kitchen offers modern touches and flows into a cute breakfast nook, perfect for casual meals or morning coffee. Three spacious bedrooms and two full baths provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Move-in ready and full of character, this home blends modern updates with timeless charm in a convenient location. Don’t miss your opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• Timeless charm
• Move in ready
• Cute breakfast nook

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• LIGHT INVITING LIVING SPACES
• MODERN TOUCHES
• CUTE BREAKFAST NOOK
• MOVE IN READY
• TIMELESS CHARM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-850/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,075 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Orange-Stark El (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 1,130 students, 94% FRL); West Orange-Stark Middle (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 505 students, 92% FRL); West Orange-Stark H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 660 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,875 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.12%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,352
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2309 Bradford St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,254 (+4%)	1mo	$89,900	$72	70
2705 Terrace Cir	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,240 (+2%)	9mo	$139,900	$113	70
2707 Terrace Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+6%)	10mo	$169,999	$132	64
413 Gardenia Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,246 (+3%)	1mo	$124,990	$100	57
10 Circle S	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-7%)	13mo	$105,000	$93	50
1524 Longhorn Ave	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,296 (+7%)	8mo	$139,900	$108	47
504 Azalea Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,225 (+1%)	17mo	$105,000	$86	46
2120 Houston St	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (-8%)	4mo	$149,800	$134	45
3415 Bowling Ln	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-12%)	4mo	$90,000	$85	41
6 Circle Q St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,090 (-10%)	11mo	$105,000	$96	37
1536 Mustang Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-14%)	14mo	$95,000	$91	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,291
• Equity at exit: $51,251

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $41,430
• Equity at exit: $68,168

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,845/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-71

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,458

Max offer price $137,391

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-28	+0% $-71	+5% $-113	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-125	+0% $-71	+5% $-17	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-33	base $-71	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2602 Tanglewood St West Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1306	$1,250	$0.96	15d	1	0.21mi
205 Gloria St West Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1225	$1,300	$1.06	45d	1	0.21mi
206 Florence St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1216	$1,425	$1.17	45d	1	0.31mi
210 Florence St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1064	$1,425	$1.34	45d	1	0.32mi
3000 MacArthur Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	791	$1,330	$1.68	15d	12	0.47mi
101 Azalea Ave Unit A Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	45d	1	0.50mi
302 Bridal Wreath Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1182	$1,195	$1.01	45d	1	0.55mi
309 Quincy St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1113	$1,200	$1.08	15d	1	0.62mi
403 Bluebonnet Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1196	$1,300	$1.09	45d	1	0.63mi
310 Camellia Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	23d	1	0.65mi
406 Dayton St West Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,200	$0.89	45d	1	0.67mi
1120 28th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,500	$1.15	45d	1	0.67mi
107 Dahlia St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1149	$1,300	$1.13	15d	1	0.74mi
1543 Alamo St West Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1170	$1,200	$1.03	15d	1	0.80mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 203 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,084	$1.08	15d	1	0.85mi
3726 Bowling Ln Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1045	$1,150	$1.10	45d	1	0.88mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 107 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	45d	1	0.90mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Apt 105 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$1,255	$1.32	23d	1	0.90mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 315TWNHME Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1216	$1,040	$0.86	23d	1	0.90mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 404 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,254	$1.25	45d	1	0.90mi
3333 Ridgemont Dr Unit 408 Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,059	$1.06	45d	1	0.90mi
7b Concord St Orange, TX	2.0	1.5	1206	$1,450	$1.20	15d	1	0.92mi
3615 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1266	$1,275	$1.01	45d	1	1.01mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	1.12mi
3714 Ridgemont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,450	$1.42	15d	1	1.12mi
316 Old Timers Rd Unit 316 Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	45d	1	1.21mi
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	15d	7	1.39mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	15d	27	1.46mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   status Active
3. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-19
   price $149,900
5. 2026-02-13
   listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,845 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,845
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,353
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$805
• After-tax cash flow: $-45/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Orange

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1075
• US rank: #19069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — BBOR
• 2026-03-30 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $149,900 BBOR
• 2026-02-13 Listed $159,900 BBOR

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,845 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.