914 Osborn Ave · Riverhead, NY 11901

$399,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1880 5,227 sqft lot $286/sqft · 33% below area Est $597k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Historical Marvel 3 Br Colonial features Hardwood floors, 1,400 square feet, full basement with an OSE- Bilco doors, Low taxes, Level Property. Detached 2-car garage, spacious bedrooms, very close to schools & shopping, centrally located, investors' delight!

Key facts

• Centrally located
• Full basement
• Bilco doors

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FULL BASEMENT
• BILCO DOORS
• LEVEL PROPERTY
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Back yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Oil-fired heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Full basement with Bilco doors; Partial attic; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $377k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $334k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $334k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Riverhead — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#325 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 188 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $334,445 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $597,109
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -33.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
891 Pondview Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,304 (-7%)	6mo	$550,000	$422	51
133 Merritts Pond Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,516 (+8%)	13mo	$553,000	$365	45
818 Pulaski St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+7%)	14mo	$385,000	$257	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-73,072
• Equity at exit: $59,640

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-74,107
• Equity at exit: $34,584

Cash invested: $111,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11901

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$508 /mo · $6,100/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$702
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,510

Max offer price $376,935

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $-17	+0% $-131	+5% $-244	+10% $-357
Rent	-10% $-395	-5% $-263	+0% $-131	+5% $2	+10% $134
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $-29	base $-131	+0.5pp $-234	+1.0pp $-340

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,998
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $399,990 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $399,990 Active 264-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,100 · $508/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,430 · $536/mo
• Expected delta: +$330/yr (+$27/mo · 5.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,133
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$6,100
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,211
• − Management: −$3,211
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable loss: −$8,430
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,023
• After-tax cash flow: $457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Riverhead

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #5379

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C Employment B- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverhead, NY
• City population: 32,921
• Population (ZIP): 32,921

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.60%
• Current HPI: 436.7781
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $399,990 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,100 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.