5619 Bayshore Rd #423 · Memphis, FL 34221

$159,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · Manufactured public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1983 3,903 sqft lot Est $123k · 30% over $188/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Making the decision to move to Florida often means leaving familiar places—and loved ones—behind. This land-owned home in the welcoming 55+ community of Terra Ceia Manor was made for that moment. From the day you arrive, you’ll feel the comfort of a neighborhood where residents look out for one another, friendships form easily, and newcomers are truly welcomed. With a full social calendar that includes luncheons, shuffleboard, and a heated community pool, it doesn’t take long before this feels like home. This fully furnished, move-in ready home allows you to focus on settling in, not starting over. Check Virtual Tour One for the matterport The spacious family room, a

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Large storage area
• Land owned home

Tags

• LAND OWNED HOME
• HEATED COMMUNITY POOL
• FULLY FURNISHED
• MOVE IN READY
• SCREENED PATIO
• LARGE STORAGE AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Furnished; Association contact listed
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $188 (total annual fees $2,256); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA required with monthly fee of $188; Association amenities include cable TV, clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court; Association fee covers pool, escrow reserves, fidelity bond, insurance, grounds maintenance, management, recreational facilities, sewer, trash and water; Buyer approval required for association; Senior community; Pets not allowed; Community features: clubhouse, fitness center, sidewalks, street lights, community mailbox, deed restrictions, association-owned recreation, golf carts OK

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking pad; Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered, screened side porch; Hurricane shutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Exterior storage; Paved asphalt road; Private maintained road; Property located in county, private and unincorporated

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Humidity control
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen open to family room; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry: other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.5% in Memphis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#745 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1160 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $159k implies a 121% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.36%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,668
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5619 Bayshore Rd #421	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-0%)	5mo	$150,000	$112	95
5619 Bayshore Rd #466	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,364 (+1%)	1mo	$123,500	$91	94
5619 Bayshore Rd #469	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-0%)	5mo	$112,000	$83	90
5619 Bayshore Rd #164	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-9%)	2mo	$120,000	$98	77
420 49th St E #48	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-4%)	2mo	$110,000	$85	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-4,826
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $7,555
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1160
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,286/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$188
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,513

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
110 49th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	3d	1	0.47mi
105 2nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	11d	1	0.48mi
105 2nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1569	$1,895	$1.21	23d	1	0.48mi
4721 1st Ave E #4721 Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,000	$1.37	23d	1	0.66mi
4633 1st Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1586	$1,875	$1.18	3d	1	0.69mi
515 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	23d	1	0.89mi
709 45th St E Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	3d	1	0.97mi
4207 5th Ave W Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$3,000	$1.72	23d	1	1.07mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $188 · $2,256/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 150 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-01-10
    listed $159,000 Active
16. 2025-08-18
    historical
17. 2025-03-24
    listed $169,000 Active
18. 2018-12-17
    soldstatus $72,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,286 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,320 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$33/yr (+$3/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 39% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,286
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − HOA: −$2,256
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $2,760
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$662
• After-tax cash flow: $4,396/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Memphis

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #745
• US rank: #16072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+120.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-10 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Listed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,286 · -6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.