1209 Twisted Crk · New Braunfels, TX 78130

$279,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,024 sqft · Land · 31 Days on market

Built 2025 4,791 sqft lot $138/sqft · 37% below area Est $441k · 37% under $29/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Clearwater - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ready for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with the luxe owner's suite tucked into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• SPA-INSPIRED BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-311 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.4% in New Braunfels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in TX, #925 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.0%/yr); 1896 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,289 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,081
• List price: $279,000
• Delta: -36.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-70,662
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-108,790
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78130

• Rents YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 1896
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,476/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,297

Max offer price $223,986

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-232	+0% $-311	+5% $-390	+10% $-469
Rent	-10% $-462	-5% $-387	+0% $-311	+5% $-236	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-240	base $-311	+0.5pp $-384	+1.0pp $-457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1220 Treehouse Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2120	$1,896	$0.89	44d	1	0.03mi
1212 Treehouse Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1687	$1,706	$1.01	22d	1	0.03mi
1236 Treehouse Ln New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,795	$1.23	18d	1	0.05mi
2540 Sweet Olive New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	24d	1	0.15mi
2505 Sweet Olive New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,590	$0.98	2d	1	0.17mi
2421 Sweet Olive New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,750	$0.90	20d	1	0.18mi
2439 Lake Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,816	$0.93	22d	1	0.19mi
2439 Lake Hls New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,590	$0.82	4d	1	0.19mi
2421 Double Oak Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,600	$0.98	4d	1	0.25mi
2436 Hunter Peak New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,800	$0.92	13d	1	0.27mi
1417 White Willow New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,550	$1.08	22d	1	0.31mi
2440 Lost Creek Rd New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.36mi
2408 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,913	$1.20	24d	1	0.47mi
2411 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,595	$1.00	15d	1	0.49mi
2415 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,545	$1.10	44d	1	0.50mi
2407 Shady Grv New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,575	$1.12	24d	1	0.50mi
758 Great Oaks Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,695	$1.09	44d	1	0.62mi
2123 Dodge Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2243	$2,020	$0.90	4d	1	0.65mi
756 Guna Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	1594	$1,980	$1.24	44d	1	0.65mi
2126 Silver Maple New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2292	$2,100	$0.92	20d	1	0.69mi
603 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1754	$1,895	$1.08	22d	1	0.74mi
655 Tom Kemp Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1758	$1,850	$1.05	44d	1	0.79mi
2280 Hawk Dr New Braunfels, TX	5.0	3.5	2472	$2,400	$0.97	24d	1	0.79mi
146 Texas Thistle New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,750	$1.17	44d	1	0.81mi
323 Mistflower New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	1822	$1,895	$1.04	2d	1	0.84mi
186 Texas Thistle New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2307	$1,950	$0.85	44d	1	0.86mi
326 Mistflower New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,695	$1.12	24d	1	0.86mi
208 Texas Thistle New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,750	$1.04	18d	1	0.88mi
342 Mistflower New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,695	$1.12	24d	1	0.88mi
352 Blacktail Dr New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$1,695	$1.09	24d	1	0.95mi
452 Holly Bush New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,997	$1.33	2d	1	0.96mi
323 Deer Crest Dr New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.0	1604	$2,700	$1.68	24d	1	1.00mi
308 Autumn Rouge New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2301	$2,200	$0.96	2d	1	1.00mi
308 Autumn Rouge New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2301	$2,295	$1.00	20d	1	1.00mi
121 Flora St New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	1.02mi
409 Dakota Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$1,995	$0.95	24d	1	1.03mi
923 Avery Pkwy Unit 2 New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.0	2305	$2,125	$0.92	4d	1	1.05mi
426 Dakota Crk New Braunfels, TX	4.0	2.5	2145	$1,995	$0.93	2d	1	1.07mi
426 Dakota Crk New Braunfels, TX	3.0	2.5	2145	$1,800	$0.84	44d	1	1.07mi
443 Autumn Blaze New Braunfels, TX	4.0	3.0	2028	$2,000	$0.99	44d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on marketlisting id $279,000 Pending 31 DOM
2. 2026-05-02
   price $279,000 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Clearwater - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ready for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with the luxe owner's suite tucked into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

3. 2026-05-01
   price $279,000 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Clearwater - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ready for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with the luxe owner's suite tucked into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

4. 2026-04-20
   listed $279,500 Active 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Clearwater - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ready for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with the luxe owner's suite tucked into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

5. 2026-04-10
   price $279,500 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Clearwater - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ready for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with the luxe owner's suite tucked into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

6. 2026-03-25
   price $280,000 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Clearwater - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ready for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with the luxe owner's suite tucked into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

7. 2026-02-20
   price $285,000 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Clearwater - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ready for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with the luxe owner's suite tucked into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

8. 2026-01-02
   listed $300,000 New 472-char remark

   Show marketing remark (472 chars)

   Seller is willing to assist with closing costs or a rate buy-down through preferred lender with an acceptable offer. The Clearwater - This new single-level home is host to an inviting open-concept floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ready for seamless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, with the luxe owner's suite tucked into a private rear corner, complete with a spa-inspired bathroom and walk-in closet.

9. 2025-12-23
   soldstatus Sold
10. 2025-12-23
    soldstatus
11. 2025-10-27
    status Pending
12. 2025-10-24
    price $300,999
13. 2025-10-15
    price $306,999
14. 2025-10-10
    price $311,999
15. 2025-09-27
    price $322,999
16. 2025-09-18
    price $321,999
17. 2025-09-17
    price $318,999
18. 2025-09-10
    listed $321,999 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,476 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,106 · $425/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,630/yr (+$219/mo · 106.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,835
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,476
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$8,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Braunfels

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #925

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 144,962
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 104,009
• Household income: $83,064
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2912.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -190.61%
• Current HPI: 173.7128
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.97%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $279,000 LERA
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $279,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $279,500 CTXMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $279,500 LERA
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $280,000 LERA
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $285,000 LERA
• 2026-01-02 Listed $300,000 LERA
• 2025-12-23 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2025-12-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-27 Pending — LERA
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $300,999 LERA
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $306,999 LERA
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $311,999 LERA
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $322,999 LERA
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $321,999 LERA
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $318,999 LERA
• 2025-09-10 Listed $321,999 LERA

Property tax history

+124.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,476 · +566.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.