1823 Roble Dr · College Park, GA 30349

$300,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,580 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2007 $116/sqft · at area comps Est $304k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 5-Bedroom, 3-Bath Home with Modern Upgrades and Ample Living Space! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 5-bedroom, 3-bath home offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. Step inside to find a floor plan featuring a bright, inviting living area that flows seamlessly into the dining room and updated kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances and a generous area for entertaining. The primary suite boasts a private ensuite bath with double vanities, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. Four additional bedrooms provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy your own private backyard oasis with a fenced in backyard for relaxing or hosting weekend barbecues. The attached two-car garage and ample storage make everyday living convenient and organized. Located in a desirable neighborhood near top-rated schools, parks, and shopping, this home truly has it all. Don't miss the chance to make this beautiful property your new home, schedule a private showing today!

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Updated kitchen
• Private ensuite bath

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE ENSUITE BATH
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (17.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (25.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (25.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in College Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#408 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Clayton County (suburban): math 11% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #155 of 174 in GA (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 651 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 865 units permitted in Clayton County in 2024 (448 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Clayton County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,412 (25.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.31%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,828
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -1.26%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5865 El Segundo Way	0.11mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (0%)	10mo	$300,000	$116	82
5863 Seabright Ln	0.07mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (0%)	13mo	$295,000	$114	81
1821 Roble Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,328 (-10%)	1mo	$275,000	$118	80
5743 Savannah Riv	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,286 (-11%)	1mo	$380,000	$166	62
5967 Yellowood Ct	0.47mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,376 (-8%)	5mo	$270,000	$114	54
5731 Savannah River Rd	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,286 (-11%)	12mo	$377,000	$165	53
1611 Flat Shoals Rd	0.53mi	4/3.5	2,400 (-7%)	12mo	$675,000	$281	52
5712 Grande River Rd	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,202 (-15%)	11mo	$278,000	$126	49
5601 Savannah River Rd	0.52mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,806 (+9%)	11mo	$380,000	$135	47
5801 Little River Rd	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,196 (-15%)	16mo	$225,000	$102	46
5787 Summerglenn Ln	0.49mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,260 (-12%)	13mo	$340,000	$150	40
5724 Antelope Trl	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,312 (-10%)	11mo	$290,000	$125	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $139,679
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $418,090
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30349

• Home prices YoY: 4.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 651
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,234 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,422/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,616

Max offer price $246,685

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-132	-5% $-217	+0% $-302	+5% $-387	+10% $-472
Rent	-10% $-478	-5% $-390	+0% $-302	+5% $-214	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-151	-0.5pp $-226	base $-302	+0.5pp $-380	+1.0pp $-459

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5848 El Segundo Way Atlanta, GA	5.0	3.0	2560	$2,560	$1.00	6d	1	0.02mi
5853 Sepulveda Ln Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	1950	$1,999	$1.03	44d	1	0.10mi
5914 Grande River Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,210	$1.24	44d	1	0.33mi
5843 Summerglen Ln Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	2453	$1,795	$0.73	25d	1	0.46mi
1610 Potomac Ct Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.0	1920	$2,255	$1.17	44d	1	0.61mi
6055 Yellowood Ct Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.0	2014	$2,181	$1.08	13d	1	0.63mi
5692 Norman Ct Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1770	$1,806	$1.02	6d	1	0.64mi
1605 Chattahoochee Ct Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.5	2156	$2,210	$1.03	44d	1	0.69mi
1387 Cater Ln Riverdale, GA	4.0	2.5	2136	$2,095	$0.98	6d	1	0.80mi
2250 Sandgate Cir Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.0	1916	$2,100	$1.10	16d	1	0.80mi
1857 Whitworth Dr Riverdale, GA	4.0	3.0	1857	$1,888	$1.02	44d	1	0.84mi
1533 Northcut Ct Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1872	$1,938	$1.04	13d	1	0.88mi
5443 Northcut Dr Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1872	$1,751	$0.94	44d	1	0.94mi
1340 Pineglen Dr Riverdale, GA	5.0	3.0	2340	$2,100	$0.90	18d	1	0.95mi
5287 Chantilly Ter Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.5	1897	$2,006	$1.06	22d	1	1.02mi
6405 Beethoven Cir Riverdale, GA	5.0	3.0	2606	$2,365	$0.91	2d	1	1.11mi
5219 Hanover St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1864	$1,850	$0.99	44d	1	1.17mi
135 Beethoven Ct Riverdale, GA	3.0	2.0	2454	$1,850	$0.75	6d	1	1.20mi
6325 Polar Fox Ct Riverdale, GA	4.0	2.5	2471	$2,445	$0.99	22d	1	1.22mi
5185 Hanover St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,950	$1.11	44d	1	1.23mi
5185 Hanover St Unit 1 Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1750	$1,950	$1.11	44d	1	1.23mi
5247 Scofield Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1958	$2,000	$1.02	44d	1	1.37mi
5665 Hidden Brook Cir Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.5	2228	$2,149	$0.96	13d	1	1.40mi
1270 Brookstone Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1826	$1,920	$1.05	6d	1	1.45mi
1263 Brookstone Rd Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1902	$1,900	$1.00	19d	1	1.47mi
1076 Hidden Brook Trl Atlanta, GA	4.0	3.0	2211	$2,145	$0.97	22d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-01-29
   listed $300,000 Active 1034-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1034 chars)

   Spacious 5-Bedroom, 3-Bath Home with Modern Upgrades and Ample Living Space! Welcome to this beautifully maintained 5-bedroom, 3-bath home offering the perfect blend of comfort, style, and functionality. Step inside to find a floor plan featuring a bright, inviting living area that flows seamlessly into the dining room and updated kitchen complete with stainless steel appliances and a generous area for entertaining. The primary suite boasts a private ensuite bath with double vanities, a soaking tub, and a walk-in closet. Four additional bedrooms provide flexible space for family, guests, or a home office. Outside, enjoy your own private backyard oasis with a fenced in backyard for relaxing or hosting weekend barbecues. The attached two-car garage and ample storage make everyday living convenient and organized. Located in a desirable neighborhood near top-rated schools, parks, and shopping, this home truly has it all. Don't miss the chance to make this beautiful property your new home, schedule a private showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,422 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,422 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,422
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,145
• − Management: −$2,145
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$8,934
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,144
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clayton County
• NCES district ID: 1301230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,266
• Composite: 13.41/100
• National rank: #9527
• State rank: #155 of 174 in GA

Livability — College Park

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #408
• US rank: #20212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 10,694
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 79,872
• Household income: $67,023
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 4258.0

Population outlook (Clayton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 310,777 people
• By 2030: 329,762 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 368,052 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 401,196 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 472,488 · +52.0%
• By 2100: 500,446 · +61.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% White 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clayton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+69.2) · D 84.3% · R 15.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 66.4pp · 2024: 69.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+69.2 2020: D+70.9 2016: D+71.9 2012: D+70.1 2008: D+66.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.01%
• Current HPI: 407.99
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $300,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,422 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.