106 Lincoln Ln · Bluffton, SC 29910

$350,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,485 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2017 7,187 sqft lot Est $379k · 8% under $82/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Meticulously maintained Douglas model home in Seagrass Station with gorgeous wooded view! Property features manufactured hardwoods throughout the main level, granite counter tops with extended bar, stainless steel appliances, custom wrought iron railing leading to upstairs and so much more. Do not miss this 3 bedroom 2 1/2 bath home with open loft for an additional den/office space with like new pool and playground amenities! Close to everything in Bluffton with direct access to 278 and 170. Join our Lowcountry Lifestyle today!

Key facts

• 7,187 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-196 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $315k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (26.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Bluffton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#76 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Beaufort 01 (town): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #17 of 80 in SC (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 760 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,824 units permitted in Beaufort County in 2024 (618 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($99k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Beaufort County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $275k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,944 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $378,675
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3 Wigg Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+6%)	8mo	$420,000	$268	56
37 Devant Dr E	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,445 (-3%)	10mo	$370,000	$256	48
13 Lake Somerset Cir	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,423 (-4%)	8mo	$372,000	$261	42
16 Raymond Rd	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,695 (+14%)	5mo	$406,600	$240	41
129 Honesty Ln	0.75mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,356 (-9%)	3mo	$350,000	$258	39
20 Devant Dr E	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,362 (-8%)	6mo	$340,000	$250	38
146 Honesty Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-1%)	22mo	$375,000	$255	38
3 Lake Somerset Cir	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,672 (+13%)	1mo	$420,000	$251	37
32 Lake Somerset Cir	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,402 (-6%)	16mo	$350,000	$250	35
33 Devant Dr E	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (-7%)	16mo	$342,500	$249	34
43 Devant Dr E	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,700 (+14%)	10mo	$301,000	$177	29
144 Honesty Ln	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,688 (+14%)	14mo	$443,500	$263	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-66,453
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-62,492
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29910

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 760
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,136/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$82
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,837

Max offer price $315,443

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Padgett Dr Bluffton, SC	2.0	2.0	1089	$2,300	$2.11	43d	1	0.91mi
11 Parklands Dr Bluffton, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1088	$2,628	$2.41	13d	33	1.19mi
61 Zubler St Bluffton, SC	2.0	2.0	1053	$1,970	$1.87	21d	1	1.26mi
201 Saddle Horse Dr Okatie, SC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1208	$2,870	$2.37	13d	8	1.29mi
103 Inspiration Ave Bluffton, SC	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$2,129	$2.62	13d	3	1.30mi
314 Bleecker St S Bluffton, SC	3.0	2.5	1742	$2,900	$1.66	43d	1	1.39mi
55 Purry Cir Bluffton, SC	2.0	2.0	1445	$2,500	$1.73	43d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $82 · $984/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2024-07-14
   listed $410,000
3. 2020-11-24
   soldstatus $275,000
4. 2020-11-20
   soldstatus $275,000 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   Meticulously maintained Douglas model home in Seagrass Station with gorgeous wooded view! Property features manufactured hardwoods throughout the main level, granite counter tops with extended bar, stainless steel appliances, custom wrought iron railing leading to upstairs and so much more. Do not miss this 3 bedroom 2 1/2 bath home with open loft for an additional den/office space with like new pool and playground amenities! Close to everything in Bluffton with direct access to 278 and 170. Join our Lowcountry Lifestyle today!

5. 2020-05-07
   listed $275,000 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   Meticulously maintained Douglas model home in Seagrass Station with gorgeous wooded view! Property features manufactured hardwoods throughout the main level, granite counter tops with extended bar, stainless steel appliances, custom wrought iron railing leading to upstairs and so much more. Do not miss this 3 bedroom 2 1/2 bath home with open loft for an additional den/office space with like new pool and playground amenities! Close to everything in Bluffton with direct access to 278 and 170. Join our Lowcountry Lifestyle today!

6. 2018-11-02
   listed $255,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,136
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,486
• − Management: −$2,486
• − HOA: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$8,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,053
• After-tax cash flow: $-294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaufort 01
• NCES district ID: 4501110
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,430
• Composite: 40.56/100
• National rank: #3699
• State rank: #17 of 80 in SC

Livability — Bluffton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #76
• US rank: #8936

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluffton, SC
• County: Beaufort County · 163,770 people
• City population: 77,022
• Metro: Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, SC
• Population (ZIP): 53,019
• Household income: $98,912
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1146.0

Population outlook (Beaufort County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,915 people
• By 2030: 227,272 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 253,861 · +19.8%
• By 2050: 275,126 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 311,022 · +46.8%
• By 2100: 321,286 · +51.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Beaufort

• 2024 margin: R (+14.5) · D 42.1% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.7pp toward R · 2008: -10.8pp · 2024: -14.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.5 2020: R+10.0 2016: R+14.3 2012: R+17.5 2008: R+10.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.80%
• Current HPI: 245.8086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.06%
• Metro: Hilton Head Island-Bluffton, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+60.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — LRMLS
• 2024-07-14 Listed $410,000 RSMLS
• 2020-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-20 Sold (MLS) $275,000 RSMLS
• 2020-05-07 Listed $275,000 RSMLS
• 2018-11-02 Listed $255,000 RSMLS

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,136 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.