249 Country Ln · Lumberton, TX 77657

$259,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,671 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1996 0.46 ac lot Est $259k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great house with a large backyard. Corner fireplace, large island in the kitchen.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Large yard
• Bay windows

Tags

• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• LARGE WORK ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• BAY WINDOWS
• COZY CORNER FIREPLACE
• LARGE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Patio; Lot approximately 0.46 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-247 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (26.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (26.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $260k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,309 (26.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.08%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,005
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8125 Laurie Lane Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-15%)	2mo	$209,900	$148	64
7621 Clearview Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,774 (+6%)	5mo	$295,000	$166	59
200 Pinata Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-1%)	11mo	$175,000	$106	59
7845 Laurie Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,460 (-13%)	11mo	$227,000	$155	56
131 Winding Brook Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,903 (+14%)	20mo	$310,000	$163	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-57,823
• Equity at exit: $38,722

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-70,614
• Equity at exit: $22,454

Cash invested: $72,716 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,362
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,366/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-247

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,216

Max offer price $216,038

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,925
• Closing costs: $7,791
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
187 S Lhs Dr Lumberton, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1107	$1,668	$1.51	13d	1	0.51mi
110 Azaelia Dr Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	13d	1	0.60mi
357 S Main St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$895	$0.74	43d	1	0.77mi
40 Candlelight Ln Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,000	$1.23	43d	1	0.89mi
40 Candlelight Ln Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,000	$1.23	23d	1	0.89mi
200 Raider Ln Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,395	$1.15	23d	1	0.93mi
8445 Harvard St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1295	$1,790	$1.38	23d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $259,700 Active
3. 2015-01-30
   soldstatus
4. 2014-05-05
   soldstatus
5. 2014-05-02
   soldstatus 81-char remark

   Show marketing remark (81 chars)

   Great house with a large backyard. Corner fireplace, large island in the kitchen.

6. 2014-03-31
   listed $135,000 81-char remark

   Show marketing remark (81 chars)

   Great house with a large backyard. Corner fireplace, large island in the kitchen.

7. 2011-11-08
   soldstatus
8. 2003-07-09
   soldstatus $125,000
9. 2001-07-19
   soldstatus $128,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,366 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,753 · $396/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,387/yr (+$116/mo · 41.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,837
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,547
• − Property taxes: −$3,366
• − Insurance: −$1,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$7,555
• Taxable loss: −$7,583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,146/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lumberton, TX
• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+101.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $259,700 BBOR
• 2015-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-02 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2014-03-31 Listed $135,000 BBOR
• 2011-11-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $128,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,366 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.