622 Elizabeth Ln · Lakeland, FL 33809

$122,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 349 Days on market

Built 1974 4,752 sqft lot $285/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 622 Elizabeth Lane in the highly desirable Lakeside Hills Estates—a 55+ community offering an active lifestyle and excellent amenities! This charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home is located in one of North Lakeland’s most sought-after neighborhoods, where residents enjoy a low monthly HOA of just $285 that includes cable, internet, water, grounds maintenance, and access to community amenities. NO LOT RENT! You own the land your home sits on. Please note: this is a no-rent community. This well-maintained home features a metal roof installed approximately 7 years ago and just pressure-washed and resealed, partial plumb repiping, and a newer A/C system under warranty until 202

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Newer a c system
• Indoor laundry

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• PARTIAL PLUMB REPIPING
• NEWER A C SYSTEM
• FRESHLY PAINTED EXTERIOR
• BUILT IN CABINETRY
• INDOOR LAUNDRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Contact HOA regarding boat slip availability; Private boat ramp and skiing allowed on Lake Gibson
• Financial info: Total annual HOA fees $3,420; Partially furnished
• HOA & community: HOA required (monthly fee $285); Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, shuffleboard court, cable TV, lobby key required, optional additional fees, fence restrictions; HOA fees include: cable TV, common area taxes, pool, internet, grounds maintenance, management, water; Senior community; Clubhouse, deed restrictions, sidewalks, street lights, golf carts allowed; Pets allowed with size limit (max ~35 lbs)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Phone available; Fire hydrant nearby; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (double wide); One story; Faces north
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Originally built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Exterior lighting; Sidewalk; Storage; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Ductless heating; Central air; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Blinds, drapes and rods
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located inside (laundry closet, in kitchen)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $843 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $122k implies a 336% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.87%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-9,194
• Equity at exit: $18,191

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-4,058
• Equity at exit: $10,548

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,677 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,505/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$285
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,394

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	3d	15	0.36mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	14d	1	0.51mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	19d	1	0.53mi
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	23d	1	0.63mi
4048 Chelsea Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,320	$1.37	3d	1	0.72mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	21d	8	0.73mi
3939 Golf Village Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,619	$1.84	3d	6	0.88mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	23d	1	0.95mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	3d	24	0.95mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	14d	2	0.96mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	23d	1	0.96mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	23d	1	1.05mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	14d	1	1.05mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	23d	1	1.15mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	23d	1	1.18mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	23d	1	1.21mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	23d	1	1.24mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.24mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	1.25mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	14d	1	1.27mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	3d	1	1.27mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	23d	1	1.27mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	3d	21	1.27mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	3d	1	1.28mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	3d	1	1.29mi
3685 Victoria Manor Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$1,507	$1.31	3d	17	1.29mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	14d	1	1.31mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	3d	1	1.38mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	23d	1	1.39mi
235 Leelon Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,295	$1.41	23d	1	1.44mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	14d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $285 · $3,420/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetcablelandscaping

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $122,000 Active 349 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $122,000 Active 348 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $122,000 Active 347 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $122,000 Active 346 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $122,000 Active 344 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $122,000 Active 341 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $122,000 Active 340 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $122,000 Active 339 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $122,000 Active 338 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $122,000 Active 335 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $122,000 Active 333 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $122,000 Active 332 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $122,000 Active 331 DOM
14. 2026-03-25
    price $122,000
15. 2026-03-13
    price $127,000
16. 2025-12-22
    price $134,000
17. 2025-07-07
    status Active
18. 2025-06-28
    status Pending
19. 2025-06-25
    price $136,000
20. 2025-06-24
    listed $139,000 Active
21. 1978-02-01
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$1,505
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,610
• − Management: −$1,610
• − HOA: −$3,420
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $989
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$237
• After-tax cash flow: $2,451/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+335.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $122,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $127,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $134,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $136,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1978-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,505 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.