8510 Martin Way E #25 · Lacey, WA 98516

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 217 Days on market

Built 1968 $69/sqft · 19% below area Est $124k · 20% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated double-wide home in peaceful Lacey! Nestled on the largest lot in the park, this well-cared-for property features an open layout with spacious living and dining areas. The kitchen boasts generous storage and new butcher-block counters—perfect for everyday cooking or hosting. The primary suite offers an en-suite bath for added comfort and privacy. Lots of updating done and now just needs your finishing touches Step outside to a covered deck ideal for relaxing or entertaining, plus a large shop ready for your projects and hobbies. Wide ramp and entry door for easy access. Conveniently close to shopping, dining, and parks, and perfectly situated between Seattle and Po

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Double-wide home
• Open layout

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE HOME
• LARGEST LOT
• OPEN LAYOUT
• BUTCHER-BLOCK COUNTERS
• EN-SUITE BATH
• COVERED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 217 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 217 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.47%
• DSCR: 3.38
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $123,501
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -19.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $64,340
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $164,489
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98516

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $263/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$483
• Net cashflow: $1,235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $737

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1404 Brittany Ln NE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,133	$2.25	2d	11	0.11mi
1203 Wynoochee Pl NE Olympia, WA	4.0	3.0	1755	$2,450	$1.40	43d	1	0.19mi
8717 Wallingford Ln NE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,425	$2.02	43d	1	0.20mi
8515 Litt Dr SE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	798	$2,075	$2.60	43d	25	0.36mi
8675 Litt Dr SE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	795	$2,197	$2.76	5d	25	0.42mi
8675 Litt Dr SE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	835	$2,245	$2.69	43d	19	0.42mi
220 River Ridge Dr SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	783	$1,850	$2.36	13d	3	0.51mi
105 Newberry Ln SE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	956	$2,233	$2.33	1d	11	0.55mi
9129 Skokomish Way NE Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,650	$1.82	21d	1	0.64mi
1419 Mamook Ct NE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,095	$1.84	13d	1	0.65mi
1110 Copper Wood Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$1,742	$1.54	5d	1	0.70mi
9320 Windsor Ln NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	973	$2,181	$2.24	1d	11	0.82mi
317 Trailblazer St SE Unit C Olympia, WA	3.0	1.5	1040	$1,850	$1.78	21d	1	0.89mi
7815 3rd Ave SE Unit A Olympia, WA	3.0	1.0	988	$2,350	$2.38	43d	1	0.92mi
316 Choker St SE Unit 4 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,795	$1.69	13d	1	0.97mi
333 Choker St SE Unit B Olympia, WA	3.0	1.5	1000	$2,200	$2.20	21d	1	1.04mi
7641 3rd Way SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,178	$2.35	13d	9	1.12mi
8811 31st Ave NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,655	$2.92	1d	13	1.16mi
8727 Hanna Ln NE Unit 05-202 * ONE MONTH FREE RENT Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,045	$2.01	43d	1	1.17mi
8739 Hanna Ln NE Unit 7202 Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,095	$2.06	43d	1	1.18mi
8736 Hanna Ln NE Unit 12-103 (ADA) Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1015	$2,095	$2.06	21d	1	1.20mi
8755 Hanna Ln NE Unit 10-104 Lacey, WA	2.0	2.5	1148	$2,245	$1.96	21d	1	1.23mi
7808 Pamela Ct SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	1170	$2,250	$1.92	13d	1	1.23mi
3200 Willamette Dr NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$2,716	$2.79	1d	10	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 217 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 216 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 215 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 214 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 212 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 211 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 209 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 198 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $99,000
17. 2026-03-05
    price $104,000
18. 2026-01-10
    price $112,000
19. 2025-11-13
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $263 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $970 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$707/yr (+$59/mo · 269.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥88°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,606
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$263
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,208
• − Management: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $14,005
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,361
• After-tax cash flow: $11,459/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,177
• Household income: $98,892
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1202.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.16%
• Current HPI: 323.7121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-23.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $104,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $112,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-13 Listed $129,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $263 · +32.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.