21510 Willow River Canyon Ln · Houston, TX 77484

$227,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · SingleFamily · 23 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $179/sqft · 7% below area Est $245k · 7% under $31/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Appreciation +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Oakridge" Plan with Brick Elevation "H1" in Binford Creek! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 1196 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,535 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.65%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,218
• List price: $227,990
• Delta: -7.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21519 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	4mo	$229,990	$181	95
21618 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	3mo	$227,990	$179	94
21803 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,273 (0%)	2mo	$231,990	$182	87
21526 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	1mo	$232,990	$165	80
21614 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$232,990	$165	77
21515 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	4mo	$232,990	$165	77
21610 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	2mo	$245,990	$173	77
21511 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	4mo	$245,990	$173	76
21503 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	4mo	$251,990	$178	76
21638 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+11%)	2mo	$232,990	$165	75
21630 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	2mo	$245,990	$173	75
21642 Willow River Canyon Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+11%)	2mo	$247,990	$175	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-51,306
• Equity at exit: $33,994

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-77,050
• Equity at exit: $19,712

Cash invested: $63,837 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77484

• Home prices YoY: -1.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 1196
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,855 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$285 /mo · $3,420/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,034

Max offer price $207,607

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-62	+0% $-141	+5% $-220	+10% $-298
Rent	-10% $-287	-5% $-214	+0% $-141	+5% $-68	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-26	-0.5pp $-83	base $-141	+0.5pp $-200	+1.0pp $-260

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,998
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21514 Barnridge Ct Waller, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$1,895	$1.15	7d	1	0.15mi
21707 Cottonwood Meadows Trl Waller, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,749	$1.27	26d	1	0.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Oakridge" Plan with Brick Elevation "H1" in Binford Creek! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

2. 2026-04-14
   listed $227,990 Active 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   NEW Lennar Cottage Collection "Oakridge" Plan with Brick Elevation "H1" in Binford Creek! This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are ideal for household members and hosting overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,771
• − Property taxes: −$3,420
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,781
• − Management: −$1,781
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$6,632
• Taxable loss: −$5,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,352
• After-tax cash flow: $-338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further value increases through exterior painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Enhances convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,348
• Household income: $81,250
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.17%
• Current HPI: 397.85
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $227,990 HARMLS