191 Seabass Dr · Palacios, TX 77465

$149,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily · 157 Days on market

Built 2017 0.45 ac lot $115/sqft · 35% above area Est $110k · 35% over $180/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

VERY WELL KEPT HOME ON TWO LOTS WITH THREE OUT BUILDINGS JUST ONE MILE FROM CARANCAHUA BAY. ONE OF THE OUT BUILDINGS IS A GUEST COTTAGE WITH A BEDROOM, LOFT AND HALF BATH. THE OTHER TWO CAN BE STORAGE AND A WORKSHOP. WATER VIEW FROM FRONT DECK. 2 UTILITY POLES, 2 DRIVEWAYS AND WATER METERS FOR EACH LOT OFFERS POTENTIAL. COMMUNITY AMENITIES INCLUDE A POOL, LIGHTED FISHING PIER & BOAT LAUNCH FOR ENDLESS OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT.

Key facts

• Two lots
• Community amenities
• Lighted fishing pier

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• GUEST COTTAGE
• WATER VIEW
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• LIGHTED FISHING PIER
• BOAT LAUNCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $81 ($970/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 1.6% in Palacios — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#92 in TX, #3,197 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Palacios ISD (town): math 42% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #427 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 432 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.24%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $110,153
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: 35.27%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
57 Sardine	0.67mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,195 (-8%)	14mo	$39,500	$33	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-18,916
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,524
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77465

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Active inventory: 432
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,519 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $347/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$180
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $81

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,416

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $165	-5% $123	+0% $81	+5% $39	+10% $-3
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $21	+0% $81	+5% $141	+10% $201
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $119	base $81	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $180 · $2,160/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 153 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 141 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 140 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 139 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 138 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,000 Active 137 DOM
17. 2026-01-22
    price $149,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    VERY WELL KEPT HOME ON TWO LOTS WITH THREE OUT BUILDINGS JUST ONE MILE FROM CARANCAHUA BAY. ONE OF THE OUT BUILDINGS IS A GUEST COTTAGE WITH A BEDROOM, LOFT AND HALF BATH. THE OTHER TWO CAN BE STORAGE AND A WORKSHOP. WATER VIEW FROM FRONT DECK. 2 UTILITY POLES, 2 DRIVEWAYS AND WATER METERS FOR EACH LOT OFFERS POTENTIAL. COMMUNITY AMENITIES INCLUDE A POOL, LIGHTED FISHING PIER & BOAT LAUNCH FOR ENDLESS OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT.

18. 2026-01-13
    listed $155,500 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    VERY WELL KEPT HOME ON TWO LOTS WITH THREE OUT BUILDINGS JUST ONE MILE FROM CARANCAHUA BAY. ONE OF THE OUT BUILDINGS IS A GUEST COTTAGE WITH A BEDROOM, LOFT AND HALF BATH. THE OTHER TWO CAN BE STORAGE AND A WORKSHOP. WATER VIEW FROM FRONT DECK. 2 UTILITY POLES, 2 DRIVEWAYS AND WATER METERS FOR EACH LOT OFFERS POTENTIAL. COMMUNITY AMENITIES INCLUDE A POOL, LIGHTED FISHING PIER & BOAT LAUNCH FOR ENDLESS OUTDOOR ENJOYMENT.

19. 1992-03-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $347 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,727 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,379/yr (+$198/mo · 685.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$347
• − Insurance: −$1,542
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,458
• − Management: −$1,458
• − HOA: −$2,160
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,423
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $1,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palacios ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834020
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,413
• Composite: 33.79/100
• National rank: #5365
• State rank: #427 of 826 in TX

Livability — Palacios

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #92
• US rank: #3197

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,267
• Population (ZIP): 7,267

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,579 people
• By 2030: 17,480 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 19,328 · +16.6%
• By 2050: 21,182 · +27.8%
• By 2075: 25,781 · +55.5%
• By 2100: 28,184 · +70.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 39% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 34% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.8) · D 14.3% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -70.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.8 2020: R+66.2 2016: R+63.7 2012: R+56.5 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.88%
• Current HPI: 150.4444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $149,000 BCBR
• 2026-01-13 Listed $155,500 BCBR
• 1992-03-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $347 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.