306 Wilson Ave · Kinston, NC 28501

$159,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,030 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 263 Days on market

Built 1941 8,668 sqft lot Est $160k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The classic two-story residence offers a charming blend of character and functionality, with beautifully refinished hardwood floors, a side porch, and detached workshop. The permanent walk-up stairs lead to a spacious floored attic , ideal for storage. The home's three bedrooms and two bathrooms are move-in ready.

Key facts

• Detached workshop
• Side porch
• 8,668 sq ft lot

Tags

• SIDE PORCH
• DETACHED WORKSHOP
• SPACIOUS FLOORED ATTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.8% in Kinston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#640 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northeast Elementary (math 6% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,393 of 1,410 statewide, top 99%, 442 students, 98% FRL); Rochelle Middle (math 9% / reading 20%, grade F, #462 of 475 statewide, top 98%, 466 students, 98% FRL); Kinston High (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #459 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 713 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 65% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lenoir County Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $160k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,799 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.20%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,370
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
312 Frances Pl	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,990 (-2%)	2mo	$41,000	$21	86
106 W Capitola Ave	0.43mi	3/1.5	2,014 (-1%)	12mo	$149,000	$74	67
607 Harding Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,030 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$91	64
201 Park Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,768 (-13%)	3mo	$85,000	$48	62
611 Edwards Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,022 (-0%)	7mo	$50,500	$25	60
113 E Capitola Ave	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,757 (-13%)	6mo	$129,900	$74	54
1508 N Queen St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,802 (-11%)	11mo	$143,000	$79	53
109 Hill St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,900 (-6%)	23mo	$153,000	$81	49
1500 Pollock St	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,287 (+13%)	2mo	$190,000	$83	48
1507 Holman St	0.47mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,861 (-8%)	12mo	$185,000	$99	47
215 E Peyton Ave	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,082 (+3%)	22mo	$170,000	$82	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-18,333
• Equity at exit: $23,856

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,226
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28501

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,683/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,324

Max offer price $159,999

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $210	-5% $165	+0% $119	+5% $74	+10% $29
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $61	+0% $119	+5% $178	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $160	base $119	+0.5pp $78	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,999 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,999 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,999 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,999 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,999 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   price $159,999 Active 257 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $168,900 Active 257 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $168,900 Active 255 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $168,900 Active 254 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $168,900 Active 251 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $168,900 Active 250 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $168,900 Active 249 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    status $168,900 Active 248 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    status Pending
15. 2026-03-08
    price $168,900
16. 2025-12-26
    price $177,500
17. 2025-10-17
    price $187,500
18. 2025-09-15
    price $192,500
19. 2025-08-16
    listed $197,500 Active
20. 2025-07-17
    soldstatus $100,000
21. 2025-07-17
    soldstatus $115,000
22. 2023-11-20
    historical $1,000
23. 2023-10-26
    listed $1,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,683 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,683 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,683
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$295
• After-tax cash flow: $1,729/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lenoir County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702610
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $34,958
• Composite: 25.17/100
• National rank: #7515
• State rank: #147 of 178 in NC

Livability — Kinston

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #640
• US rank: #23267

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kinston, NC
• City population: 20,407
• Population (ZIP): 18,112

Population outlook (Lenoir County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,002 people
• By 2030: 53,048 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 49,041 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 45,136 · -17.9%
• By 2075: 36,547 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 27,731 · -49.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 26% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Lenoir

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.8) · D 46.2% · R 53.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -6.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.8 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+6.3 2012: R+1.5 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.17%
• Current HPI: 193.3213
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+16790.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $168,900 Hive MLS
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $177,500 Hive MLS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $187,500 Hive MLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $192,500 Hive MLS
• 2025-08-16 Listed $197,500 Hive MLS
• 2025-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2025-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-20 Rental Removed $1,000 APPFOLIO
• 2023-10-26 Listed for Rent $1,000 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,683 · +107.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.