2702 Gazelle St · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$228,750

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2023 5,400 sqft lot $157/sqft · 39% above area Est $164k · 39% over ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in the heart of the Texas Hill Country, this new 2023 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers modern comfort, stylish finishes, and an easy-living lifestyle just minutes from Horseshoe Bay Resort, golf courses, Lake LBJ access, and nearby boat ramps. With nearly 1,500 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space, this property is ideal as a full-time residence, weekend retreat, or investment opportunity. Inside, you’ll find an open-concept layout with durable laminate wood flooring throughout—no carpet—creating a clean, cohesive look that is both stylish and low maintenance. Soft neutral tones, modern accents, and abundant natural light give the home a fresh and welcomi

Key facts

• Horseshoe bay resort
• No carpet
• Lake lbj access

Tags

• HORSESHOE BAY RESORT
• LAKE LBJ ACCESS
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• DURABLE LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• NO CARPET
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Energy-efficient windows
• HOA & community: Located in Horseshoe Bay S subdivision

Exterior

• Parking: Side-entry driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured on land; Single story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($740/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.0% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Colt El (math 35% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 644 students, 62% FRL); Marble Falls Middle (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 911 students, 67% FRL); Marble Falls H S (math 29% / reading 47%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 1,145 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 1236 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $64k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,058 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.16%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,000
• List price: $228,750
• Delta: 39.48%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6001 Pronghorn	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,493 (+2%)	23mo	$199,800	$134	73
1605 Colonneh St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (0%)	4mo	$164,000	$113	72
2508 Gazelle Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-4%)	19mo	$175,000	$125	69
1904 Colonneh	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-8%)	18mo	$199,000	$148	52
1808 Cripple Creek St	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (0%)	23mo	$239,900	$165	49
208 33rd St	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,512 (+4%)	20mo	$210,000	$139	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,612
• Equity at exit: $77,441

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $53,962
• Equity at exit: $102,412

Cash invested: $64,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1236
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,200
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,160/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,973

Max offer price $228,750

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $126	+0% $62	+5% $-3	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $-19	+0% $62	+5% $143	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $120	base $62	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-58

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,188
• Closing costs: $6,862
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2203 25th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,525	$0.91	25d	1	0.33mi
201 36th St Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,300	$1.39	22d	1	0.76mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,349	$1.40	25d	2	1.34mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	25d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,750 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,750 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,750 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,750 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,750 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,750 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,750 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,750 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,750 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,750 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $228,750 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,750 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,750 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,750 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,750 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    listed $228,750 Active 1552-char remark
17. 2026-03-17
    historical $1,925
18. 2026-02-06
    listed $1,925
19. 2025-10-02
    price $229,900
20. 2025-09-25
    price $232,900
21. 2025-09-11
    price $235,000
22. 2025-07-02
    price $249,900
23. 2025-06-28
    price $254,900
24. 2019-09-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,160 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,186 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,026/yr (+$85/mo · 32.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,607
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,814
• − Property taxes: −$3,160
• − Insurance: −$1,144
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,969
• − Management: −$1,969
• − Depreciation: −$6,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,103
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$745
• After-tax cash flow: $1,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 16,310 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $228,750 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-17 Rental Removed $1,925 ACTRIS
• 2026-02-06 Listed for Rent $1,925 ACTRIS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $229,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $232,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-11 Price Changed $235,000 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $249,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $254,900 HLMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2019-09-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+44.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,160 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.