138 Ellicott St · Rochester, NY 14619

$34,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,894 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1925 4,192 sqft lot $18/sqft · 83% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICED WELL BELOW ASSESSED VALUE - BRING YOUR PAINTBRUSH AND YOUR VISION BOARD ——> This CLASSIC THREE BEDROOM COLONIAL in a HIGHLY SOUGHT AFTER NEIGHBORHOOD is waiting for you to restore it to the CROWN JEWEL OF THE 19TH WARD! * * * ORIGINAL CHARACTER * * * and * * * CLASSIC ARCHITECTURAL CHARM * * * can be FOUND THROUGHOUT! LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH, BRIGHT AND CHEERY EAT-IN KITCHEN, FORMAL DINING ROOM, WELL APPOINTED LIVING SPACE with OVERSIZED FRONT WINDOW, * * * BRICK FIREPLACE with ORIGINAL BUILT-INS * * * , GUM WOOD TRIM & LEADED GLASS. The PRIMARY BEDROOM offers a * * * QUAINT SLEEPING PORCH * * * for those hot summer nights. FULL WALK-UP AT

Key facts

• Leaded glass
• Formal dining room
• Gum wood trim

Tags

• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• WELL APPOINTED LIVING SPACE
• GUM WOOD TRIM
• LEADED GLASS
• QUAINT SLEEPING PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Two-story residence; Existing (resale) property
• Construction: Composite siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Fully fenced yard; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 39 x 105); City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air gas heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork; Additional finished spaces (recreation, other)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Cap rate 49.8% vs local median 9.3% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in NY, #3,482 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Rochester City School District (urban): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #589 of 590 in NY (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $34,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 155.52%
• DSCR: 7.92
• GRM: 1.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,576
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -83.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
138 Ellicott St	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,894 (0%)	0mo	$123,150	$65	100
14 Burlington Ave	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,721 (-9%)	1mo	$230,000	$134	75
35 Milton St	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (-4%)	4mo	$185,000	$102	66
295 Terrace Park	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,685 (-11%)	2mo	$185,000	$110	63
117 Millbank St	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,639 (-14%)	1mo	$173,000	$106	58
71 Inglewood Dr	0.65mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,949 (+3%)	3mo	$170,000	$87	57
71 Aberdeen St	0.47mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,740 (-8%)	2mo	$245,000	$141	56
51 W High Ter	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,631 (-14%)	5mo	$145,000	$89	55
305 Aldine St	0.51mi	3/1.5	2,136 (+13%)	1mo	$217,500	$102	52
469 Arnett Blvd	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,060 (+9%)	3mo	$125,000	$61	47
53 Congress Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (-14%)	2mo	$205,000	$126	47
1283 Plymouth Ave S	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,621 (-14%)	1mo	$200,000	$123	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.68×
• Total profit: $75,075
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.35×
• Total profit: $169,516
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14619

• Home prices YoY: -10.0%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 1.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $1,266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $384

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
485 Sawyer St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	2d	1	0.13mi
485 Sawyer St Unit 1 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	43d	1	0.13mi
79 Evangeline St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	2d	1	0.18mi
793 Woodbine Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	2d	1	0.25mi
132 Anthony St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	3d	1	0.34mi
102 Virginia Ave Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1453	$2,150	$1.48	2d	1	0.38mi
1317 Genesee St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1720	$2,550	$1.48	2d	1	0.66mi
190 Warwick Ave Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,400	$1.13	43d	1	0.73mi
161 Fillmore St Rochester, NY	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,400	$0.87	14d	1	0.92mi
249 1/2 Columbia Ave #249 Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1600	$1,300	$0.81	14d	1	0.99mi
32 Stanton St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1390	$1,500	$1.08	10d	1	1.03mi
48 Thorndale Ter Rochester, NY	4.0	1.5	1700	$1,400	$0.82	14d	1	1.04mi
193 Reynolds St Rochester, NY	3.0	1.5	1342	$1,800	$1.34	21d	1	1.17mi
478 Tremont St Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,500	$1.05	43d	1	1.25mi
175 Lattimore Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	1.0	1480	$2,265	$1.53	14d	1	1.44mi
1331 Mt Hope Ave Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	949	$2,725	$2.87	2d	5	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 1115-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $34,900 Active 1115-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $15,616
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,748
• After-tax cash flow: $11,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester City School District
• NCES district ID: 3624750
• Math proficiency: 21% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,923
• Composite: 18.98/100
• National rank: #8850
• State rank: #589 of 590 in NY

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #3482

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, NY
• City population: 432,803
• Population (ZIP): 14,223

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 20% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Swedish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.67%
• Current HPI: 276.3851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+252.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) $123,150 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $34,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,269 · -6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.