8120 Magnolia Ave · Lubbock, TX 79404

$185,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1951 2.14 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely updated, sits on 2.25 acres.

Key facts

• New paint indoors
• 2.14 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WELL AND SEWER CONNECTED
• NEW PAINT INDOORS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage space; Covered carport; 2-car carport
• Security: 24-hour security
• Utilities: Private well water; Water connected; Septic tank; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Corner lot; Paved road access
• Construction: Stucco construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 1,208
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Chain link fencing; Other exterior features

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Tile countertops
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $169k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Cavazos Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,301 of 1,662 statewide, top 79%, 479 students, 97% FRL); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,775 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $18,765
• Equity at exit: $85,521

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $72,113
• Equity at exit: $133,644

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,438 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,138/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,551

Max offer price $169,171

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $15	-5% $-37	+0% $-90	+5% $-142	+10% $-194
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-146	+0% $-90	+5% $-33	+10% $24
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-43	base $-90	+0.5pp $-138	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8030 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	15d	1	0.50mi
8017 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,599	$1.16	15d	1	0.54mi
8015 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	23d	1	0.54mi
8011 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	23d	1	0.54mi
7723 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	23d	1	0.56mi
7717 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,899	$1.33	15d	1	0.57mi
7715 Date Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	23d	1	0.58mi
7704 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	15d	1	0.58mi
7702 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,600	$1.09	15d	1	0.58mi
312 E 77th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,619	$1.24	45d	1	0.63mi
320 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,599	$1.22	15d	1	0.63mi
312 E 76th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,599	$1.12	15d	1	0.66mi
110 E 82nd St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1113	$1,150	$1.03	45d	1	0.80mi
914 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	932	$900	$0.97	45d	1	1.33mi
1106 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	45d	1	1.40mi
1108 82nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	45d	1	1.41mi
1112 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	45d	1	1.42mi
1116 82nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	45d	1	1.44mi
1118 82nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$950	$0.76	45d	1	1.46mi
1113 80th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,250	$0.87	45d	1	1.46mi
1115 80th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,250	$0.87	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $185,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   remarks 247-char remark
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $185,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 10 DOM
19. 2026-05-20
    listed $185,000 Active
20. 2017-07-28
    soldstatus 35-char remark

    Show marketing remark (35 chars)

    Nicely updated, sits on 2.25 acres.

21. 2017-04-01
    listed $130,000 35-char remark

    Show marketing remark (35 chars)

    Nicely updated, sits on 2.25 acres.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,138 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,247/yr (+$104/mo · 58.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,253
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$2,138
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,315
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,036
• After-tax cash flow: $-40/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2017-07-28 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2017-04-01 Listed $130,000 LARMLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,138 · +7.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.