3916 Gingerbread Rd · Alexandria, LA 71301

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1967 Est $153k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 4 bedroom, 2 bath home in a desirable neighborhood. This home offers plenty of space for family living. Step outside to enjoy the large backyard, great for entertaining guests or hosting cookouts. Conveniently located around shopping, dining, schools, and everyday amenities. Don't miss your opportunity to make this home your own.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Garage
• Built 1967

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• DESIRABLE NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Home design: Single family residence; Composition roof
• Construction: Composition roof; Vinyl siding and brick construction
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Vinyl siding; Brick exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1; Bedroom 2; Bedroom 3
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room; Dining room; 3 bedrooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($888/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.9% in Alexandria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#160 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapides Parish (urban): math 29% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 98 in LA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 239 units permitted in Rapides Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rapides County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,782 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.87%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $152,640
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3608 Gingerbread Rd	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-5%)	0mo	$145,000	$106	81
700 Texas Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,369 (-5%)	0mo	$82,600	$60	67
704 Texas Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,602 (+11%)	0mo	$92,800	$58	57
373 Windermere Blvd	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,469 (+2%)	20mo	$135,000	$92	54
140 Georgetown Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+12%)	4mo	$182,500	$113	45
3026 Marye St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+11%)	6mo	$249,900	$156	43
363 Windermere Blvd #105	0.39mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,640 (+14%)	17mo	$207,000	$126	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,846
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,876
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71301

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,858/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,414

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
381 Windermere Blvd Alexandria, LA	2.0	2.0	1391	$1,350	$0.97	43d	1	0.48mi
5445 Provine Pl Alexandria, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$1,949	$2.10	43d	17	1.10mi
5006 Sarah St Alexandria, LA	3.0	1.5	1832	$1,600	$0.87	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 356-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $170,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,858 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,858 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,094
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,858
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$475
• After-tax cash flow: $1,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapides Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -29.00%
• Median HH income: $41,057
• Composite: 30.68/100
• National rank: #6179
• State rank: #31 of 98 in LA

Livability — Alexandria

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #13698

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alexandria, LA
• City population: 25,138
• Population (ZIP): 17,266

Population outlook (Rapides County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 133,047 people
• By 2030: 132,333 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 129,355 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 124,535 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 110,338 · -17.1%
• By 2100: 88,641 · -33.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% White 36% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Portuguese 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rapides

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.8) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -36.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.8 2020: R+32.1 2016: R+32.5 2012: R+29.6 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.38%
• Current HPI: 184.9889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+9.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $170,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2022-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $154,995 Public Records
• 2022-05-28 Listed $154,995 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,858 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.