402 Atlantic City Ct · Forked River, NJ 08734

$849,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,870 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1992 6,534 sqft lot $454/sqft · 26% above area Est $762k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Cash flow +2.5/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.3/15.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated next to a nature preserve this spacious colonial offers an in ground pool and spacious open living space with fireplace. The inground pool gives an infinity pool like view over the beautiful wide lagoon. Option for a 4th bedroom on ground floor for multi generational living options. Updated spacious kitchen overlooking the water makes you not want to leave the kitchen. Upstairs you will find 3 spacious bedrooms all with waterviews. Both bathrooms upstairs have been updated with tiled showers with glass doors, new vanities and tiled floors and primary bath offers a soaking tub as well. You will enjoy the spacious sunroom for morning breakfast or evenings entertaining in your new wa

Key facts

• Tiled showers
• Updated kitchen
• In ground pool

Tags

• IN GROUND POOL
• NATURE PRESERVE
• WATERVIEWS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• TILED SHOWERS
• COMPOSITE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Shingle roof; Crawl space basement
• Exterior features: Bulkhead; Lagoon access/waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Gas stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Linoleum; Vinyl; Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating with 2 heat zones; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Washer, Dryer, Dishwasher, Microwave, Stove, Refrigerator; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Light fixtures; Attic fan; Gas cooking; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Attic fan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-41k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (70.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $323k (62.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (70.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.1% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($824k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $382k; list at $850k implies a 122% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,284 (70.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 70% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.38% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.91%
• DSCR: 0.34
• GRM: 21.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $761,534
• List price: $849,900
• Delta: 11.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
830 Deguise St	0.42mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,862 (-0%)	1mo	$625,000	$336	72
906 Bowsprit Pt	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,761 (-6%)	0mo	$855,000	$486	67
421 Laurel Blvd	0.37mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,833 (-2%)	8mo	$650,000	$355	66
602 Drew Ave	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,701 (-9%)	3mo	$450,000	$265	58
308 Predmore Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,794 (-4%)	8mo	$465,000	$259	57
321 Lawrence Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,702 (-9%)	7mo	$579,000	$340	56
202 Lawrence Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,812 (-3%)	3mo	$545,000	$301	53
409 Sinclair Ave	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,598 (-14%)	5mo	$491,000	$307	51
301 Chestnut Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-10%)	3mo	$510,000	$302	48
834 E Hickory Dr	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,603 (-14%)	4mo	$520,000	$324	48
935 Mallard Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,699 (-9%)	8mo	$537,000	$316	47
202 Cedar Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (+14%)	5mo	$454,250	$213	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -50.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-353,097
• Equity at exit: $126,723

10-year hold

• IRR: -99.4%
• Equity multiple: -1.46×
• Total profit: $-584,563
• Equity at exit: $73,484

Cash invested: $237,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 21.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,230 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$697 /mo · $8,367/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$678
• Net cashflow: $-3,383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,513

Max offer price $252,284

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,902	-5% $-3,142	+0% $-3,383	+5% $-3,624	+10% $-3,864
Rent	-10% $-3,638	-5% $-3,511	+0% $-3,383	+5% $-3,255	+10% $-3,128
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,955	-0.5pp $-3,167	base $-3,383	+0.5pp $-3,603	+1.0pp $-3,827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,475
• Closing costs: $25,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
406 Lawrence Dr Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	2.0	1836	$16,000	$8.71	2d	1	0.43mi
209 Sinclair Ave Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	1.0	1352	$3,000	$2.22	44d	1	0.62mi
209 Sinclair Ave Lanoka Harbor, NJ	3.0	1.0	1352	$3,300	$2.44	21d	1	0.62mi
988 Capstan Dr Forked River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1467	$3,500	$2.39	22d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $849,900 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $849,900 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $849,900 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $849,900 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $849,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $849,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $849,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $849,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $849,900 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-05-02
    listed $849,900 Active 1084-char remark
11. 2025-06-26
    historical
12. 2025-04-04
    listed $794,000 Active
13. 2025-04-03
    listed $794,000 Active
14. 2002-03-13
    soldstatus $382,500
15. 2002-02-03
    soldstatus $382,500
16. 2001-09-27
    listed $399,556
17. 1995-08-03
    soldstatus $210,000
18. 1995-08-01
    soldstatus $210,000
19. 1995-06-14
    historical
20. 1995-04-17
    listed $229,900
21. 1992-06-18
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,367 · $697/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,765 · $1,230/mo
• Expected delta: +$6,398/yr (+$533/mo · 76.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 55% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,763
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,608
• − Property taxes: −$8,367
• − Insurance: −$9,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,101
• − Management: −$3,101
• − Depreciation: −$24,724
• Taxable loss: −$57,506
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,801
• After-tax cash flow: $-26,794/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+2197.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $849,900 MOMLS
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $794,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-03 Listed $794,000 MOMLS
• 2002-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $382,500 Public Records
• 2002-02-03 Sold (MLS) $382,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-09-27 Listed $399,556 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 1995-08-01 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MOMLS
• 1995-06-14 Delisted — MOMLS
• 1995-04-17 Listed $229,900 MOMLS
• 1992-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.6%/yr

Latest (2014): $8,367 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.